По каким продуктам скучаете в эмиграции?
Мой топ (за 2 года жизни в Чили):
- вяленая вобла
- сыр-косичка
- селёдка
- конфеты "рот-фронт" и "птичье молоко"
- пиво Василеостровское
#эмиграция
About four years ago when I first went down the bitcoin rabbit hole, I developed several demand models based on historical S-curves, as well as a supply model based on a modified version of Plan B’s S2F model. They are shown below.
I developed these models as a guide to help me understand this unique asset, and my conclusion was that while the supply is known, the demand is not. The slope of the adoption curve determines the size of the network, which per Metcalfe’s Law determines the value. Even the slightest change in slope can have a profound impact on valuation, given that we are dealing with exponential math.
Of all the S-curves that are historically available, I settled on mobile phones and internet adoption as the most relevant. The latter is shown below. As you can see, we are at the point where that curve’s exponential slope is becoming less exponential (more asymptotic). By this measure, bitcoin is maturing.
Based on that S-curve, I built a regression model that added a layer of monetary policy outcomes (from -2% real rates to +2.5% real rates). The chart below shows this hypothetical valuation framework. Again, this is not meant as a price prediction, but as a guide to understanding bitcoin’s use case as a network asset that also has monetary features.
This is the Daniel Negreanu.
6x poker world champion and 7th richest poker player in the world.
He said: "If you focus on the result, you're focusing in the wrong place."
Here's my favorite 7 poker concepts that made me a better trader:
Ученые-климатологи в отчаянии. Человечество не приближается к решению проблемы глобального потепления.
Грядет катастрофа, но мировое сообщество ничего не делает — из-за политиков и нефтегазового лобби
Рассказываем, почему у климатологов опускаются руки
https://t.co/dwlTIVWMyf
Bitcoin -- the trade of a lifetime
There has never been and never again will be another asset like Bitcoin $BTC
Here is the perspective from my 50-year career as a professional trader
https://t.co/fyHrGRRHLo