CP’s Journal

Diary & observations on cycles in veritas, markets & living. Pupil of “Mr Market”. Eyeing the swinging masses. ¿Contrarian? Mostly posting fleeting thoughts.

[CP’s Journal @tradetheknowhow]

When you think you know,
you don’t know

When you know you don’t know,
you know.

It is what it is.

[Matti O🤖¯\_(ツ)_/¯ @Triforcetrader]

Is “edge leak” actually a meaningful concern?

I’ve literally given people code to trade, openly discussed edges, and packaged strategies in a way that made them easy to understand and implement. A lot of those edges have continued to work years later.

That’s why I’ve never fully understood the “never share an edge because it’ll get arbed away” crowd.

Every strategy has a capacity.

A strategy that works incredibly well with $1M, $10M, or even $100–200M may still be completely irrelevant to a large hedge fund. They simply cannot deploy enough capital into it for the edge to matter.

The reverse is also true. There are edges large funds can trade that I would never touch because they’re designed for completely different capital, infrastructure, liquidity, execution, and risk constraints.

But I think there’s another part of this that people underestimate: strategy preference creates natural dispersion.

Give 100 traders the exact same strategy with code and they will not all trade it the exact same way. They will change it.

Some will think the Sharpe is too low.

Some won’t like the drawdowns.

Some hate overnight risk.

Some only trade momentum.

Some only trade mean reversion.

Some want high turnover.

Some refuse to trade small caps.

Some will change the parameters because they think they can “improve” it.

Some will abandon it after three losing trades.

And some simply won’t believe the edge exists.

Humans have biases and preferences embedded in almost everything they do. In that sense, markets have a kind of natural dispersion mechanism.

It reminds me a little of the problem of studying consciousness: consciousness is involved in everything we experience, which makes it incredibly difficult to completely separate ourselves from it and examine it objectively.

Trading is similar.

We don’t evaluate strategies from some perfectly neutral position. We bring our own experiences, preferences, risk tolerances, beliefs, capital constraints, time horizons, and biases into the decision.

So even when an edge becomes public, adoption is rarely uniform.

That creates an implicit bias-dispersion effect that helps many edges survive.

Obviously, if you discover some massive, highly scalable, extremely obvious inefficiency and broadcast it to everyone with enough capital to exploit it, then yes, eventually competition should compress it.

But most edges aren’t like that.

Most are capacity constrained, behaviorally difficult, operationally annoying, psychologically uncomfortable, or simply unattractive to a large percentage of market participants.

That’s why I think “edge leak” is much more nuanced than:

Someone knows my strategy → the edge disappears.

Markets just don’t work that cleanly.

Just my two cents.

[CP’s Journal @tradetheknowhow]

Screams consensus

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US Government officially posts its largest July budget deficit in history, at -$432 billion, due to an acceleration in federal spending.

Interest on US debt rose +$26 billion from last July's levels to an alarming $118 billion for the month.

This puts total interest expense for FY2026 up to $1.17 trillion in FY2026.

As a result, interest expense has officially surpassed both National Defense and Medicare spending.

In other words, the US government now spends more money just on interest than it does to fund the entire US Military or to provide healthcare for seniors.

We cannot afford higher interest rates.

[CP’s Journal @tradetheknowhow]

Although there is no point
A point will be placed
To see what happens
Is that point
.

[CP’s Journal @tradetheknowhow]

When probabilities haven’t been assessed we call them possibility.

The measuring stick a signal of null truth.

[CP’s Journal @tradetheknowhow]

If I am something, I’m naive.

[CP’s Journal @tradetheknowhow]

Great post 👍🏽

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

https://t.co/wV6l2s2n5U

[Bandazian @Off_The_Tape]

did $NVDA just create a "CAIO" (Collateralized AI Obligations)? ... AAA !!!

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

"The bank of Nvidia creates a protective financing moat for the chipmaker, while fueling credit risk by lending to customers. Nvidia is cutting a lot of checks and a lot of commitments with finite free cash flow to an industry driven more by efficiency of the technology and struggling for meaningful monetization. That brings focus back onto the circular deals underpinning the AI boom" - Panmure Liberum

[Jensen Huang @JensenHuang]

https://t.co/pppEbPVtfE

[CP’s Journal @tradetheknowhow]

-La Noche Obscura-

At the core of all psychological questions there lies the sentiment;

“Is the light worth the candle?”

The answer is evidently reflected in our actions & reactions to the everyday moment.
(No words need be said)

If it’s not worth the candle, it is fine.

Sometimes you don’t need a candle to light the path at all.

But only when said path is already clear & laid out in front of our eyes.

Because we aren’t always aware; when time does come for the candle to be lit, we can be grateful for having saved up all that wax that would have otherwise been wasted.

Just spark it up whence the path becomes as dark as night.

And follow the light.
🎭

[stockbee @PradeepBonde]

Because stops don’t work in pre market

[CP’s Journal @tradetheknowhow]

Common psychological framework:

1. I do unto you what you do unto me.
2. If I like you I trust you.
3. If you do it I should do it too.
4. Find and follow a leader.
5. The less there is the more I want it.
6. If I said I’d do it then I’ll do it.
7. I’m likely to be safe if I don’t differ from the crowd.

-For more, read-
Influence
By: Robert B. Cialdini

[CP’s Journal @tradetheknowhow]

Look… when it’s actually time to sell these big banks will do anything BUT warn you.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Bank of America says investor bullishness has reached its highest level since 2021, warns it's time to sell stocks and other risk assets.

[CP’s Journal @tradetheknowhow]

The universe oscillates as if it’s breathing.

A wave🌊

Perhaps that holds the key to its shape(s).

Wave at it & it waves back 👋🏽

[CP’s Journal @tradetheknowhow]

Found for a moment a confusion between “Brains & a Bull Market”…

Happens sometimes.