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[tradewithjoe @tradewithjoe]

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[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

$VIX is 28.68 -0.03. While it got above 30 for a bit yday, fear never seemed to take hold. At this pt all that seems relevant is a relatively high range for $VIX seems likely. Were that to change it would likely be significant.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

$IWM is trading 169.17 -0.19. It's long tradition going back to March 2021 (it badly underperformed from that pt forward) of disappointing continues w/ irritating, misleading and brief interruptions. Tough environment for small caps.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

$QQQ is trading 279.45 -0.80. Early significant weakness yesterday was overcome before a close roughly in the middle of the day's range. There is no clear passion for taking risk so far. Any embraces are more polite that enthusiastic. That will need to change 4 a rally to hold.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

$SPY is trading 377.22 -0.03. A choppy session yday which pleased traders who r sensitive 2 very short term moves. Every1 else, not so much The most popular narrative calls 4 some strength in July & Aug. with dark clouds in Sept. & Oct. I'll pass and worry about the coming days.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

$SPX would trade 3785ish given futures trading. Yday had anything u might have wanted in very volatile trading w/ a relatively small decline, ending at where it opened. Intraday volatility is a given. Bulls, regardless of long or short term pedigree, can't seem to gain traction.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

$CL_Q Crude is trading 107.64 +107.62 recovering about a 1/3 of the sharp declines of the prior two sessions. Prices are acting in a fashion that you can choose your own narrative.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

Globex $SRUT futures $ES_U traded with its brethren of equities futures all evening. Now -1.00.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

Globex $NDX futures $NQ_U traded in like pattern to $ES_U, making a low of -145 at just after 3 AM. Now -13.00.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

Today's data pts:

Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays @ 8:30 AM ET
Chicago PMI @ 9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

$VIX is 29.79 and apparently the overnight cascade has had a suitable effect. Making a higher high would probably occur in a panic where you saw a traditional case of capitulation. People have said that has occurred. Persistent selling is not capitulation.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

$IWM is trading 168.02 -2.67. The increasing prospects of economic weakness/recession r not helping the Russell. The most positive thing 1 say is that the negative sentiment on small caps is epic.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

$QQQ is trading 278.99 -4.81. The risk of looking 4 a bear mkt rally in an extended decline is @ least = 2 the risk of being caught wrong footed by 1. Selling here probably doesn't change the probability of a rally unless it snowballs. Dueling risks make me keep net exposure low.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

$SPY is trading 374.70 -5.64. That would leave a minor island top The only that has worked is buying weakness and selling strength judiciously. The fear of a meaningful bear mkt rally has invited caution. It's never easy.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

$SPX would open at 3763ish presently which would approach a .618 retracement of the rally from the 6/17 low. It would also close the gap from 6/24. A mkt unable 2 hold rallies continued that pattern yesterday. The tape is ugly.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

$CL_Q is trading 109.60 -0.18 in the middle of its overnight range. Unable to decline meaningfully it seems stuck in a debate about supply deficits and demand destruction. For now it seems the energy has left energy.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

Globex $RUT futures $RTY_U was just another ugly face in get along go along mode. Now -25.40

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

Globex $NDX futures $NQ_U traded w/ $ES_U but slightly weaker. Now -196.00

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

Globex $SPX futures $ES_U struggled from the open but accelerated to the downside at 1:30 AM as signs of a weak European open emerged (those mkts are down 2ish%). Now -50.50

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

Todays data pts:

GDP @ 8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits @ 8:30 AM ET
"The Chairman" Jerome Powell Speaks @ 9:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index @ 10:00 AM ET
Survey of Business Uncertainty @ 11:00 AM ET

#JoblessClaims & #ChicagoPMI tomw.

[Scarlett & Carter's BaPa @KASDad]

$VIX is 28.89 +0.53. Yesterday's selloff was not met w/ as large a rise in $VIX as I might have expected. Will be interesting to see if it picks up substantially today on any further selling.