The Business Cycle Model has never been wrong.
LEI cross-over leads to COI cross-over - which means Recession is closing in.
"WHEN" - is given by the "Imminent Recession Indicators".
Now - watch the difference between "Real Macro" - and the Cartoon-Macro theories supplied by Economists and Analysts.
More to come!
🤯 BITCOIN IS PRINTING THE EXACT SAME PATTERN THAT ENDED THE LAST BEAR MARKET.
It is called a falling wedge.
Price grinds lower into a tightening range.
The crowd turns fully bearish.
Then it breaks up and runs.
This is what happened in 2021 and 2022.
The wedge formed. Everyone gave up.
Then Bitcoin exploded higher.
Now look at 2025 and 2026.
The same wedge. The same fear.
If history repeats, the breakout comes next.
THE REAL MOVE HASN'T EVEN STARTED
What you're seeing now is just the beginning
$59K → $40K bottom → $180K
The next macro expansion is still ahead but first the market needs to shake out everyone who isn't patient enough to hold through it
Turn on notifications - I'll call every level before it hits
🚨 BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO REPEAT 2022
2022:
Fed hiked 11 times → Bitcoin crashed 77%.
The math is simple:
Higher rates → liquidity dried up → sell-off in risk assets.
2026:
The same setup is loading.
The Fed is about to hike again.
86% probability by December.
Up from 61% just two weeks ago.
Why?
Inflation is back.
PCE hit 4.1% in May.
The first time above 4% in three years.
Bitcoin is already reacting.
Down 32% in 30 days.
And the Fed hasn’t even started yet.
Imagine what happens when they do.
Remember, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including short BTC from $111K in October.
You don't want to miss my next call.
Turn on notifications. Most people will follow me too late.
🚨 I WARNED YOU. THE STORM IS HERE AND IT’S ALREADY MOVING!!
There’s a number almost nobody watches that tells you more than any headline: correlation. And this week it just went to one.
Translation: every market on Earth started moving as a single block. Korea cratered 10% in a day. Japan, Europe, US futures all sliding in lockstep. Crypto rolling over. Gold sliding off its highs. Different countries, different assets, different stories… one direction. Down.
Here’s why that should chill you. In a normal market, things argue. Stocks rise while bonds fall, gold zigs while equities zag — because each is pricing its own reality. That disagreement is what a healthy market looks like.
When the arguing stops and everything moves together, you’re not holding a diversified portfolio anymore. You’re holding one giant leveraged bet wearing a hundred different tickers and it only takes one shove to move all of it at once.
We’ve watched this exact thing twice:
→ 2008 - “safe” and “risky” collapsed together. Nowhere to hide.
→ 2020 - every screen turned red in the same week, until the Fed cracked open the floodgates.
Both times, the warning wasn’t a scary headline. It was the fusion the moment separate markets became one fragile thing.
And look underneath right now: bond yields flashing stress, liquidity quietly draining, and a Fed boxed into a corner with no good exit ease and reflate the bubble, or tighten and snap an overstretched market. Both roads end the same way. Something breaks.
That’s the part people miss. A crash doesn’t knock politely. It shows up the instant correlation goes to one - and that’s exactly what started this week.
Most will call it “a normal pullback” right up until it isn’t. I’ve spent 10 years watching turning points form from the inside, and they all look like this: quiet, synchronized, and obvious only in hindsight.
When everything moves as one, the only question left is which way and this week, the market already answered.
Don’t be the last one still treating this like business as usual.
I'M SORRY BUT NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT WHAT BITCOIN JUST DID.
Multi-year Cup and Handle. Complete.
Breakout. DONE.
Perfect retest. DONE.
Structure confirmed. DONE.
This pattern took years to build.
And nobody noticed.
Cup and Handle breakouts don't move 20%.
They move hundreds of percent.
The retest just finished.
The launch is next.
$220K is the minimum target.
Most people will only find out after it happens.
Bitcoin is in a MAJOR BEAR MARKET
Not like in 2017-2019.
Not like in 2021-2023.
This is on the ENTIRE STRUCTURE
Digital Tulip
Enjoy wave B Bounce (which is enough to push ALTS and ETH to ATHs)
US Equity Markets have NOT topped.
Though, more downside is likely to come before we head higher into the Final Market Top.
So NOT ringing the BELL yet 🔔
BUT - the situation is very different in Markets around the World.
Below the Hang Seng. The top is in! And it will head MUCH lower.
Soon - the mantra will be: "The US will pull rest of the World out of the slump".
It will not be the case - however it will create the ROTATION from RoW into US assets in the final push higher in US Risk Assets - incl. Crypto!
Wait for it!
🚨 GOLD IS ABOUT TO REPEAT 1979
And nobody is ready for what will happen.
1979:
Iran War → oil explodes
Gold goes from $200 → $850
Everyone thought it was the beginning.
Then came the part nobody talks about:
A new Fed Chair took power.
Rates went up to 20%.
Liquidity got demolished.
Gold dumped: $850 → $300
Now look at today:
2026:
- War with Iran (happening)
- Oil up aggressively (done)
- Inflation creeping back (starting)
- Fed rate hikes (next)
But here’s where people get trapped:
They think gold = safety.
True, gold doesn’t die when the crisis ends.
It dies when central banks react.
And we’re getting close to that point again.
25% of the world’s oil is being held hostage at one chokepoint.
Inflation is picking up.
Rate hikes are already being discussed again.
And a new Fed Chair is already in power at the worst possible time.
This is how 1979 started.
Gold first looked like the safest trade in the world.
Then the Fed destroyed the trade.
That’s the part nobody is ready for.
Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000.
The next call will be even more important.
When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
THIS IS HOW AI BUBBLE ENDS.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all racing to IPO at the same time.
The market needs to come up with $200 BILLION in fresh capital to absorb them.
That money has to come from somewhere.
Large funds will start selling their biggest tech positions to free up cash.
NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google will be the first to get sold.
The problem is, those three names are carrying the entire S&P 500.
When they drop, everything drops.
This exact setup played out during the COVID-era IPO wave.
Rivian, Coinbase, Robinhood all went public at absurd valuations.
When the Fed tightened and liquidity disappeared, every single one crashed over 80%.
AI and tech are already stretched thin.
A $200B capital drain on top of that creates a forced liquidation event.
If you've been following me, you already caught the $16k bottom and the $126k top.
Missed those calls? The next one is coming.
Follow me and turn notifications on.
🚨 ESTO SE ESTÁ PONIENDO PELIGROSO
SpaceX, OpenAI y Anthropic podrían salir a bolsa al mismo tiempo.
El mercado necesitaría absorber más de $200.000M en nueva liquidez.
¿De dónde saldrá ese dinero? 👀
Los grandes fondos tendrán que vender parte de sus posiciones en Big Tech.
NVIDIA, Microsoft y Google serían las primeras en sufrir.
Y si esas caen… el S&P 500 cae detrás.
Ya pasó en la burbuja COVID:
IPO infladas + liquidez seca = desplomes del 80%.
La IA y la tecnología están al límite.
Se viene una rotación masiva de capital.
Gold & stock markets - capital rotation is underway, but the EVENT (the 4th such event in 100 years), has NOT taken place yet. Weight of evidence suggests it lies ahead. Here is the'Rosetta Stone' for investors 👇
Bounce First, Bear Market After: The BTC Setup From Here
Nasdaq has lit the fuse. BTC is heading to $113–121K and SP500 to 8,100. Enjoy the ride - but understand what it is.
Read the article here:
https://t.co/Zy96V5SSzc
Markets are going MUCH higher!
But.... remind yourself - that the Market is NOT telling the story about the Economy.
Every Financial Analyst (except yours truly and a few others) saw the onset of the Recession in 2022..... which did not come.
It was as clear as the Day!
Now - Bulls will become ecstatic while the Economy deteriorates - and when it "feels the best in the Market" - the Economy will roll over - and a major top will be in for Risk Assets.
Once again.... the entire Financial Industry will miss the the Turning Point - while the Liquiditists will be focusing on M2 and other pseudo Macro variables.
Stay tuned! We are in the early phases of the Blow-Off-Top. First for stocks. Later for Crypto!
🚨 WARNING: JAPAN WILL CRASH MARKETS TOMORROW!!
Bank of Japan is hiking interest rates again…
while selling $600 billion in U.S. stocks and ETFs.
Rate hikes + asset sales = global liquidity collapse.
This is a recipe for disaster.
And most people still don’t know the TRUTH:
Japan is preparing to dump $620 BILLION in U.S. stocks and ETFs to protect the yen.
Yes - stocks.
Not just bonds.
Not just FX.
This is a full-blown liquidity maneuver.
And markets are NOT priced for it.
The yen has been under nonstop pressure.
Officials have warned.
They’ve hinted.
They’ve delayed.
Now the messaging has shifted.
Japan can’t defend the yen with talk anymore.
They need real action.
That means selling dollar-based assets.
And a huge chunk of those assets live inside U.S. markets.
So this is no longer a “Japan-only” issue.
It turns into a global risk event.
Here’s the domino effect almost nobody is watching:
→ Japan sells U.S. equities and ETFs
→ Dollar liquidity drains
→ Volatility explodes across indexes
→ Risk assets reprice fast
→ Forced liquidations begin
And once volatility appears, it spreads.
Stocks drop.
ETFs unwind.
Crypto reacts instantly.
This is how quiet markets snap into chaos.
The most troubling part?
All of this is happening before the selling is officially confirmed.
Markets are still relaxed.
Positioning is still crowded.
That won’t hold.
And here’s the accelerant no one wants to price in:
Japan is expected to hike interest rates again next month.
That changes everything.
Higher rates strengthen the yen.
A stronger yen means more pressure to sell foreign assets.
Which means this selling wave doesn’t end - it escalates.
Rate hikes + asset sales = tighter global liquidity.
And global markets are addicted to liquidity.
Expect violent price swings.
Expect things to break where liquidity is thin.
High volatility isn’t a possibility - it’s the base case.
Pay attention now, not after the headlines hit.
I’ve studied markets for a decade and flagged nearly every major selloff.
If you want to make it through 2026, follow and turn notifications on.
I’ll post the warning before the mainstream news catches on.
RELAX!
Anybody who thinks that The BlowOffTop is over in Equities - OR will not come to Crypto - just needs to look to #Kospi
Just like the #Nikkei. Just like #Silver and #Gold.
Why would you think that all is done in US - and in the most risky Assets - like Crypto?
It. is not.