TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden

Head of energy trading and weather risk management. Provides weather-optimised trading, hedging and production strategies in close collaboration with clients.

[TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden @TradeWpower]

The famous winter #SSW Risk Analysis has started again. Many of this winter's points point towards an SSW => Means we need a lot of WAF => Means unstable PV is likely at the start of winter => Which will shift forecasts as PV moves around.
An SSW has about a 30% probability to cause "stable" cold and calm NW-EU, and how the PV config is after an SSW sets the winter levels and locations. The winter-show 2025/2026 is on :-)

[TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden @TradeWpower]

Check out my latest article: A sell-off or more bull funds support? https://t.co/icHuZlIErn via @LinkedIn

[TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden @TradeWpower]

Germany's Energy Gamble EXPOSED https://t.co/z3pmZ6JqAk via @YouTube

[TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden @TradeWpower]

Emission, Gas, LNG, and Power Prices 2025-2026: Risk on the Rise and EU emissions will rise again:
- Germany’s high-stakes gamble on renewables could trigger severe price spikes and create instability across the EU grid.
- The coming winter (2025-2026) will be the actual test, exposing how vulnerable Europe’s energy system has become.
- EU industry will face unprecedented pressures, fueling resistance to the green transition.
- Politics will be polarised: the debate will become a clear Yes or No to green ideology.
LinkedIn:
https://t.co/tOOP3mLRtc
=> Analysis on YouTube:
https://t.co/seqyudrOAv

[TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden @TradeWpower]

https://t.co/FwqwZOePhf

[TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden @TradeWpower]

Calm Days, Crazy Prices: The Weather Pattern That Will Break Europe's Energy Markets

https://t.co/iPnF0c7gKc

[TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden @TradeWpower]

Check out my latest article: The New Normal: EU Energy Market Preparedness for Weather-Driven Supply Risks and Trade War Impacts https://t.co/6yh1yAhpDs via @LinkedIn

[TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden @TradeWpower]

Check out my latest article: How to "manipulate" the Nordic Power Market https://t.co/QUbVIr9fOR via @LinkedIn

[Carl Bildt @carlbildt]

President Trump 🇺🇸 has gone wild. His vicious attack on @ZelenskyyUa and 🇺🇦 is full-Putin, and where 🇺🇸 policy heads after this is anyone’s guess. Anything can happen. Now 🇪🇺🇬🇧🇳🇴 🇹🇷 must step up support to 🇺🇦 - and probably start to discuss how to de-risk aspects of their relationship with the 🇺🇸.

[TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden @TradeWpower]

The EU Green Madness - the danger of betting on wind power.
https://t.co/qdLQ69f6bf

[TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden @TradeWpower]

I'm hosting Weather+Fundamental Market Analysis (Q1 2025 - >2030). Make sure to attend it on January 27. https://t.co/0d6D4NVXin

[TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden @TradeWpower]

@PvForecast @judah47 Don’t think it will happen… Too weak Waf for that…

[TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden @TradeWpower]

SSW alert: I look forward to posting the SSW warning every year. Although it's far out in the forecasts, and I have low confidence in it, the SSW-split indications are there! Happy New Year, everyone. Thanks to @metdesk for the figures. @judah47 your view?

[TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden @TradeWpower]

@bruns_cc @judah47 Into January, we could see cold temps regardless of an SSW, but if we see one, the chance for more cold winter weather is higher :-)

[TradeWpower - by Ivan Føre Svegaarden @TradeWpower]

Electricity prices in all NW-EU could rise significantly if Germany does not increase its baseload supply. A new test of the Dunkelflaut effect could result in extreme prices as early as January 2025.
https://t.co/AFlxMgRJyz