🧵Since it is becoming hard to track, here is a thread of the simply astounding weather records planet Earth has started shattering in recent weeks:
1. Dramatic flood events have begun striking various countries around the world simultaneously this week.
https://t.co/BLiyOyxHHp
Man, you've gone deep...
I feel the stench of econometrics here, but let's have a go
All I'm saying is that gdp is near impossible to measure over short stretches
History reveals that almost always the Fed make decisions on eco data that is revised lower, that makes a mockery of their actions at vital, pivotal points
I like real variables
Oil curve, people don't want oil for delivery here
Copper, a scarcity that keeps getting cheaper
Industrial metal prices...
Jobs, and yet hours worked wobbling, the delta in hours worked x jobs gained = not so convincing strong economy
Inflation, and yet at the long end, T prices unchanged for last 3 quarters
The yield curve inversion that persists
Risk aversion in stock selection.
Yeah, they're buying the whizzy, bubbly 7 but no one wants economic stock exposure...
Leading indicators, nasty
Producer prices, gdp deflators globally collapsing
Shipping rates, the same
China metrics now Vs covid shutdown, or now Vs 2019
A mighty suspicion that covid busted already suspicious econometric forecasting models
That the stimie bounty is tapped out by year end
Bank failures before a credit crunch
A systemically important global bank that went kaput despite having excellent regulatory ratios for safekeeping
The stench of banking insolvency should deposits keep repricing higher or flee for pastures with higher, risk-adjusted returns
The new found wisdom that internet banking and the new found speed to remove deposits threatens to eliminate the franchise value of all banks
The Ponzi scheme embedded in $13 trillion of private equity. New fund launches to buy out expiring funds
Profound risk conservatism at lending institutions
The profound leverage of risk parity that saw intra day "safe" British gilts halve last October
Mercantilism that impoverishes households and makes them reliant upon debt
A 5% carry on debt approaching 4x GDP = 20% Volcker
That kind of thing...
How to find new investments? 🧵
13D filings of experienced activists are one of the best places to start.
Below is my list of the TOP 10 small/micro-cap activist funds 👇
I scan these regularly and have made a handful of lucrative picks already.
The sound that once sent a shiver down the Roman legionary's spine! The bellow of a reconstructed carnyx - a war trumpet used by Iron Age Celts, Gauls, and Germans to incite troops to battle and instil terror in the enemy.
I think folks are sleeping on one of the biggest and most obvious "zero interest rate phenomena" that's going to get vaporized slowly and then all at once: Andreessen Horowitz
Here's my thesis:
We are running out of a vital resource: words!
There are “only” 5 to 10 trillion high-quality words (papers, books, code) on the internet. Our AI models will have used all of that for training by 2026. Low-quality data (tweets, fanfic) will last to 2040. https://t.co/hm1EaJ6Enu
Me/people getting pitched $TWTR by an ARKK Venture Fund on A16z backed Titan App TODAY after another rate hike of 75 beeps are not how tech bottoms are formed...actually it's distasteful !
I am wrong a LOT, but not about this (hope I am wrong ...but I am not...but hope I am)
My PhD professors taught me MATLAB during my master's degree.
So I watched 200 YouTube videos to learn Python
96% of them were a complete waste of time.
But these 8 taught me more than all my PhD professors combined:
starting an ongoing thread of my favorite 3rd spaces or "community living rooms" in NYC 🛋️ (that you probably haven't heard about)
📍Land to Sea - a brooklyn multi-use creative space & coffee shop with the goal to uplift and support local creators of color
being “good at game theory” means being selfish. being “good at econ” means you hate poor people. being “good at sociology” means saying those things about game theory and econ. being “good at poli sci” means you are handsome. why this is so hard for some of you to understand
I soon expect to hear a Treasury announcement of a bond/note buyback program funded by t-bill sales. This would boost the ultra low level of treas mrkt liquidity & probably be s-t bullish for risk assets.
1/
Following several meetings with large LPs, capital raising events, deal sourcing, seller feedback, and broker conversations, my thoughts on the market as it sits:
Do you sit at a computer for longer than 6 hours a day?
You’re destroying your body if so.
Here’s the setup you need to protect yourself from posture problems and crippling long-term injuries:
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