India's investment rate is expected to go from 34.6% of GDP today to 37.5% by FY30.
Last time such a capex cycle was seen in 2004-08 period but the nature of capex this time is completely different
And one can divide this into 3 buckets -
1) Well-Entrenched (money already flowing): Coal, Renewables, Transmission, Defence, Railways, Oil & Gas
2) Uptick Evidence (gaining momentum): Data Centers, Semis, Green Equipment, BESS
3) Emerging (early innings, high optionality): Nuclear, Water, Shipbuilding, Coal Gasification, Carbon Capture
Coal is not a legacy constraint. India hit a peak demand record of 271 GW on May 21, 2026 for the 4th consecutive all-time high. Thermal anchored the grid at ~63% of generation. At night, ~190 GW of coal ran at near-full capacity with shortages still touching 5.4 GW. NTPC is adding 13 GW. BHEL and L&T are reporting record order inflows.
India added a record 44.6 GW solar + 6 GW wind in FY26. Impressive. But CERC's new Deviation Settlement Mechanism (Apr-26) is quietly ending the "Must Run" free pass for RE generators. By 2031, solar/wind will face the same grid scheduling penalties as coal plants. Standalone RE is dead. RE + Storage is the only viable model going forward. Every new project will need BESS embedded.
BESS could be the defining investment theme of India over the next decade. Battery costs down 70% in 3 years. 117 GWh tendered cumulatively. CEA targets 80 GW by FY36. India is still 90% import-dependent on China for the battery value chain. One needs to check up on how the value chain gets created.
The HVDC cycle is just starting. RE generation is concentrated (Rajasthan: 119 GW, South India: 106 GW). Demand is everywhere else. ±800 kV HVDC = 6 GW bulk transfer over 1,000–2,000 km. India needs 120–130 GW across ~22 corridors. Current installed: ~18 GW. That's a 6x scale-up. Combined CEA + Brahmaputra Basin capex = Rs14.3 trillion in transmission alone. GE Vernova, Hitachi Energy, Siemens Energy sit at the centre of this (Around them is a big value chain that is there). India has no fully integrated domestic HVDC OEM yet.
Nuclear the structural shift is real this time. SHANTI Act passed. 60-year state monopoly dismantled. FDI up to 49% allowed. PFBR achieved first criticality in April 2026 India entered Stage 2 of its nuclear programme. Target: 8.8 GW today → 100 GW by 2047. ~$200bn cumulative opportunity. Maharashtra alone signed nuclear MoUs worth Rs6.5 trillion with Reliance, NTPC, Adani, and others.
L&T targeting 3x nuclear revenue in 5 years. BHEL can currently supply 30–40% of a nuclear plant's bill of materials.
Also semiconductor ecosystem is getting created. 6 months ago this was all policy announcements but Micron ATMP inaugurated. Kaynes OSAT running. CG Power scaling. Tata-ASML MoU signed for Dholera fab (28nm–110nm nodes, 50,000 wafers/month). First sellable wafers expected: late 2026. India's semis market: $25–30bn today → $ 110bn by 2030. ISM 2.0 launched.
And then there is the DC boom that is coming to India. India's installed DC capacity: 1.8 GW → 10.5 GW by FY31 (AI: 6.8 GW, non-AI: 3.7 GW). Microsoft: $ 17.5bn. Google-AdaniConneX: $ 15bn. AWS: $ 15.3bn combined. Reliance-Brookfield-Digital Realty JV: $ 11bn. ~$75bn announced in 5 years. Hyperscalers are treating India as a geopolitical hedge which has stable democracy, growing digital market, coal baseload + RE mix. Power systems alone = $ 20bn opportunity for industrials.
This isn't a government-funded capex cycle hoping private capital shows up.
Corporate debt/GDP: 52% (vs 61% pre-pandemic). Industrial credit growth: 15% YoY. Bank NPAs: 2.5% at multi-year lows. Gross FDI: $ 94.5bn in FY26, +17% YoY.
Private capex to grow at ~16% CAGR through FY31. Investment rate peaks at ~37.5% of GDP.
Source - Morgan Stanely
Note to myself:
You already have a plan. You already have a system. Now, you just need to execute it well.
Why does it feel so hard? Because we often don’t change simply because we don’t truly want to. That’s the reality.
My goal isn’t to make huge amounts of money or generate extraordinary returns. It’s to bring the ideas and systems in my head into reality.
That will be the real test of my intelligence.
@tightvcptrader How did you make a 2R in Univcables? If you got in at the break of first 15 min high with a stop of day low, it would still be less than 1R as of closing price