Joe

[Joe @transpen]

As Solzhenitsyn said, the yes-man is your enemy, but a friend will argue with you.

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

WHY ZELENSKY CANNOT MAKE PEACE

Zelensky’s meltdown in the Oval Office began over his refusal to accept a negotiated settlement to the war. Even the Vice President’s use of the word “diplomacy” provoked a heated response.

So why can’t Zelensky make a peace deal?

1) He will lose power.

Zelensky cancelled elections in Ukraine and remains in power through martial law. Despite what USAID propaganda polls may claim, Zelensky is unpopular in Ukraine and would likely lose a fair election. That could leave him vulnerable to retaliation from political opponents he has imprisoned or seized assets from. In short, Zelensky needs the war to justify his continued rule.

2) The gravy train will end.

Ukraine was widely acknowledged as the most corrupt country in Europe before the war, and there is abundant evidence that Ukrainian elites have been hugely profiting from the billions in Western aid. If the war ends, so does the gravy train. A post-war audit of where the money went would also be disastrous for Zelensky’s supporters.

3) He fears the ultra-nationalists.

Most Ukrainians say they want the war to end, but the ultra-nationalist faction (a relative minority but well-armed and willing to use violence to achieve their ends) refuses to accept any territorial concessions to Russia. If Zelensky signs such a deal, he has reason to fear for his safety.

4) He’s psychologically committed.

Zelensky’s belief in ultimate victory over Russia has “hardened into a form that worries some of his advisors,” according to a report by TIME Magazine, which described Zelensky’s faith as “immovable, verging on the messianic.” According to one of Zelensky’s aides, “He is delusional. We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.” Zelensky may be in too deep to see the situation objectively.

5) History will judge him harshly.

Zelensky could have accepted a draft peace deal signed in the first month of the war, the Istanbul Accords, under which Ukraine would have kept all of its territory in exchange for neutrality. A deal now will likely be modeled on Istanbul but require Ukraine to recognize realities on the ground (ie loss of territory). Acknowledging that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have died only to get a worse deal may be too bitter a pill for Zelensky to swallow, now or ever.

In summary, Zelensky has powerful motivations to reject a deal, no matter how bad the battlefield realities get. His incentive is to continue a doomed war even if it leads to the complete destruction of Ukraine.

Instead of offering unconditional support, Zelensky’s supporters in the West should be urging him to seek a diplomatic off-ramp. Certainly they should stop catering to his unrealistic and maximalist demands.

As Solzhenitsyn said, the yes-man is your enemy, but a friend will argue with you.

[Joe @transpen]

花費中國10倍的資源，換來美國全民肥胖、平均壽命倒退的結果。美國醫藥食品產業以及監管機構腐化見骨，值得被RFK打砸燒

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

😂

[Joe @transpen]

@elonmusk 孔令

[Joe @transpen]

@menavisualss 易經

[Joe @transpen]

@elonmusk @JeffBezos Peace talks

[Joe @transpen]

@elonmusk Peace

[Joe @transpen]

@Kanthan2030 I believe the US empire has divided into the Republic of America and trans-Atlantic Empire by now.
Therefore it’s hard to get a “fully support” from the US empire.

[Joe @transpen]

@Kanthan2030 No female , no trans , not very DEI

[Joe @transpen]

@BeijingDai This is the aesthetic view under Western political correctness. We must learn to accept it.

[Joe @transpen]

@davidpgoldman The first king of the first Chinese dynasty is a hard working water resources engineer, still worshipped in every countryside of China.

[Joe @transpen]

@davidpgoldman The 3 emperors (三皇）, who also believed to be the ancestors of Chinese, teached Chinese farming, weaving and fortune telling (actually there’s no such word in English).
Those memories are rooted too deep in every Chinese mind, not very easy to destroy.

[Joe @transpen]

@ElbridgeColby @robertcobrien @ForeignAffairs Based on the current situation, the United States needs a long-term （20-30 yrs at least) national strategy, not an instant reflexive action.

[Joe @transpen]

@ourlawlesstimes @heimbergecon One thing you are right: the mentality is very different. Most of the differences are not due to the CCP or the political system, but the cultural and very long historical experiences.

[Joe @transpen]

@ourlawlesstimes @heimbergecon Many people may know that in Chinese society, education is an arm race for every family by nature. Even the CCP has no authority to change that situation which leads to few or even no kids.

[Joe @transpen]

@ourlawlesstimes @heimbergecon CCP has 0 interest on helping capitalist speculation and love to jail them all, I think.

[Joe @transpen]

@ourlawlesstimes @heimbergecon Any country with 40 years highest economic growth and 0 war can easily afford it.

[Joe @transpen]

Only in my dreams

[UK Prime Minister @10DowningStreet]

Read the joint statement from the leaders of the G7 ⬇️

https://t.co/63BcbE5Rsv

[Joe @transpen]

@BonnieGlaser So humble

[Joe @transpen]

@BeijingDai Without certain tariff on China's EV, most countries’ electricity systems may collapse immediately.

[Joe @transpen]

@Kanthan2030 Ministry of Truth will last forever.