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Two crew killed as a cargo vessel burns and drifts off Qeshm after IRGC Navy cruise missile launches into Hormuz — first casualty strike on shipping there this month. Lands same day Bessent's dollar-exclusion deadline on Iranian airlines takes effect. Confidence: HIGH
Three oil chokepoints hit at once: Saudi East-West pipeline offline 5-6 weeks, Ansarallah struck King Khalid AB, Hormuz tanker incidents continue. Pipeline's role as Hormuz bypass is gone right when Hormuz itself is contested. Brent already up 2.4%. Confidence: HIGH
A serving Russian Long-Range Aviation general, commander of the 22nd Guards Heavy Bomber Division, was shot near the Tu-95 base at Engels. No claim of responsibility yet. Confidence: LOW
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US struck IRGC mine-layers at Larak Island; Iran hit back at Jordan, UAE and Qatar bases and mined a tanker in Hormuz. Oil hit $91/barrel, diesel spreads near $100. Sixth such cycle since June with no sustained closure yet. Confidence: MODERATE
Niger coup force turns on itself: soldiers detained fellow soldiers at Air Base 101, per the ruling junta. Attribution still split between mutinous army factions and an ISIS-Sahel claim. Confidence: MODERATE
Niger military units converged on Niamey airport, presidential palace and Air Force Base 101 in an active coup attempt. Government blames mutinous soldiers; a rival account says ISIS-Sahel. Confidence: MODERATE
🚨Recent satellite imagery suggests that the Department of War has conducted a covert dredging operation to open up a never-before-used shipping corridor through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz.
The corridor in question is an approximately 1,600-foot-wide waterway with a natural depth of about 93 feet, meaning that only a small amount of dredging would have been necessary to make it safe for VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers).
Worth noting, ships navigating this corridor remain completely outside the Iranian regime’s line of sight due to the Omani island of Jazirat Musandam and the curvature of the Earth.
Follow: @MorseReport
Russia's Molniya drone autonomously selected and killed three civilians in Zaporizhzhia -- the first confirmed civilian deaths from a fully autonomous AI-targeting weapon, built on Nvidia Jetson Orin hardware. Confidence: MODERATE