TreasuryONE

SA’s Leading Treasury Services Company

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked the US 5th Fleet in Bahrain with drones, and an airbase in Jordan with missiles in retaliation for earlier US strikes on southern Iran. The US strikes were in retaliation for the downing of a US helicopter by Iran on Monday. Oil has bounced 0.5% to $92.00 after having fallen by over 3.0% yesterday, while the Dollar DXY index is just below the 100 level. US CPI data will be the main focus today, with headline inflation expected to have jumped to 4.2% from 3.8%, however the MoM Core CPI, which strips out the energy and food components, is expected to have grown by only 0.3% versus last month's 0.4%. Markets continue to price in a 50% chance of the Fed hiking rates by 0.25% later this year.

The renewed risk aversion in markets due to the escalation in hostilities has once again seen the Rand weaken back to R16.56 this morning. The local currency will continue to be driven by headlines and the US inflation data this afternoon.

Gold is trading over 2.0% weaker at $4,190 this morning, weighed down by the renewed geopolitical tension, rate hike concerns, and caution ahead of the US CPI numbers. Platinum and Palladium have opened lower, while base metals like Copper and Nickel are losing ground as well.

#MarketUpdate #Geopolitics #InflationWatch #USDCurrency #OilPrices #GoldMarket

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

Not all money market funds are the same.

That is why choosing a fund based only on the highest advertised return can be a mistake.

If you want to compare money market funds properly, you need to look at the full picture. Yield matters, but it is only one part of the decision.

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#MoneyMarketFunds #MoneyManagement

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

Israel and Iran have agreed to halt further strikes on each other, pulling the Dollar a touch lower, as safe-haven demand drops. The Dollar, however, still remains firm on the back of strong US jobs data and high inflation, which is raising expectations of higher interest rates. Tomorrow's US inflation data will provide clues as to what the Fed will likely do going forward. The agreement to halt mutual strikes also saw Oil pull back around 2.0% to $93.50 this morning, lifting risk sentiment. Chinese trade data came out well above market estimates, rising by $723.98bn versus estimates of $625.00bn, with imports growing by 27.4% YoY, and exports up by 19.4% YoY.

The positive geopolitical news sees the Rand trading stronger at R16.46 this morning, in line with firmer other EM and risk-sensitive currencies. We continue to see strong resource sector export-driven Dollar inflows into our market.

Gold is trading 0.5% firmer at $4,324, on the back of the lower Oil price and slightly softer Dollar. Platinum and Palladium are up just over 1.0%, while Silver is down marginally at $67.90. Cautious markets ahead of tomorrow's US CPI data are likely to limit larger gains in precious metals for now.

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

For decades, Iran's unspoken rule was simple: strike Iran, and Iran strikes back. That changed this weekend. When Israel hit targets in Lebanon, Iran responded with missile strikes on Israel anyway. It's the first time Iran has retaliated on behalf of a third country, and it signals a dramatic expansion of its reach and willingness to act as a regional enforcer. Adding another layer of complexity, US President Trump publicly distanced himself from Israel's Beirut strikes, saying they were not coordinated with Washington, and called on Iran to return to the negotiating table, insisting a US-Iran nuclear deal is still very much on the table. President Trump says Netanyahu will have "no choice" but to accept a US deal with Iran, insisting he "calls the shots" on the matter. Trump says Iran's missile strikes will not derail negotiations, and that he wants a deal concluded.

A surprisingly strong US jobs report last Friday sent the dollar surging to a two-month high and it hasn't looked back. When jobs data beats expectations, markets anticipate the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer, making holding dollars more attractive. Adding fuel to the fire, Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes over the weekend, driving investors toward the dollar as a traditional safe-haven asset. Eyes now turn to Wednesday's US inflation print, with analysts forecasting the CPI reading to hit 4.2%, well above the Fed's 2.0% comfort zone. A hot number could push the dollar even higher.

The rand has opened the week on the back foot, trading at R16.60 to the dollar. Three forces are piling pressure on the local currency at the same time: the stronger greenback, rising oil prices (which push up SA's import bill), and growing unease over the Israel-Iran conflict. There's little on the local calendar to provide relief in the near term, leaving the rand vulnerable to further moves.

#IranIsraelConflict #MiddleEastTensions #EconomicOutlook #InflationWatch #MarketUpdate

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

Markets head into the final trading day of the week with geopolitical tensions still dominating sentiment. Hezbollah has rejected a US-brokered ceasefire proposal in Lebanon, undermining one of Iran's key conditions for a broader peace agreement. While President Trump continues to signal progress in negotiations, the latest setback suggests a resolution may take longer than markets had hoped. Oil remains elevated near $96/barrel, keeping inflation concerns and risk aversion firmly in play.

Today's US Non-Farm Payrolls report is the key event for global markets. Consensus expects around 93,000 jobs to have been added in May, down from 115,000 previously, while unemployment is expected to remain steady at 4.3%. The number will be critical in shaping Fed expectations, with markets caught between resilient inflation pressures and signs of a gradually cooling labour market. A stronger print could reinforce the higher-for-longer rate narrative, while a weaker number may revive hopes of earlier policy easing.

Locally, Governor Kganyago has reinforced the SARB's commitment to preventing second-round inflation effects from taking hold. While the Bank appears willing to look through the initial fuel-price shock, it remains concerned about rising core inflation, wages and inflation expectations. FRA markets continue to price in at least one additional rate hike, with the risk of further tightening should oil prices remain elevated and the rand come under renewed pressure. The message from the SARB remains clear: inflation credibility remains the priority.

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

Washington announced a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon. However, markets remain cautious as Hezbollah still needs to cease all hostilities, and while tensions between the US and Iran remain high. The Dollar is holding firm this morning despite the Oil price dropping slightly, as US ADP private payrolls data jumped by 122k, reflecting the resilience in the labour market. Inflation concerns have risen again after the inflation component of the ISM services PMI report jumped to a 4-year high.

The Rand lost some ground late last night, trading up near the R16.38 level before closing at R16.35. We are trading unchanged this morning as traders assess Trump's proposed new 12.5% tariff on South Africa due to presumed unfair foreign practices affecting US trade.

Gold is trading close to 1.0% higher at $4,472 this morning on the back of the ceasefire news. Platinum and Palladium have also firmed, while Brent crude is marginally lower at $97.10. Donald Trump said that Washington and Tehran remain in contact, but negotiations remain stalled.

#IsraelLebanon #InflationWatch #LabourMarket

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

Donald Trump has said that the peace talks have stalled as geopolitical tensions rise in the Middle East. Iran has launched fresh missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, while the US confirmed strikes on targets on Iran's Qeshm Island. Israel continues its bombing campaign in southern Lebanon despite Trump saying Netanyahu had agreed to call off the attacks. Brent crude is up over 1.0% at $97.10, the Dollar is a touch stronger, with EM markets trading slightly softer. US job openings data showed an above-expectation jump of 7.618 million, the highest reading since May 2024, and reinforcing the Fed's restrictive monetary policy. Markets will closely watch Friday's nonfarm payrolls and unemployment data for further clues.

The Rand has opened softer at around the R16.28 level on the back of the escalation in Middle East hostilities. Traders are awaiting the local Q1 GDP number, which is due out later today.

Gold has slipped 0.5% to $ 4,462 on the back of the fresh strikes by both the US and Iran, the higher Oil price, and firmer Dollar. Platinum and Palladium are both down around 0.6%, while Copper is lower at $13,900 after having closed above the $14,000 level last night.

#DonaldTrump #MiddleEast

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

Many businesses work hard to improve margins, cut costs, and manage working capital, yet still leave large cash balances sitting in accounts that do very little.

That is a missed treasury opportunity.

If your business regularly holds surplus cash, even for short periods, the question is not only where to keep it safe. The question is whether that cash is working as hard as it should.

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#CashManagement #BusinessFinance #CorporateFinance #SurplusCash

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

Market sentiment turned more cautious overnight after Iran suspended indirect talks with the United States, citing ongoing regional tensions and frustration with the pace of negotiations. The move has reduced expectations of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough and shifted investor focus back toward geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Oil remains the primary market driver as traders continue to price in a growing geopolitical risk premium. Concerns that further escalation could threaten energy supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, have supported crude prices and increased the likelihood of tighter global supply conditions should tensions worsen.

Gold has emerged as one of the primary beneficiaries of the renewed geopolitical uncertainty, attracting safe-haven inflows as investors seek protection against escalating tensions in the Middle East. In addition to its traditional role as a store of value during periods of market stress, higher oil prices are also raising concerns about future inflationary pressures, providing further support for the precious metal. While elevated US Treasury yields and a resilient Dollar continue to limit the pace of gains, the broader backdrop remains supportive for gold as long as geopolitical risks remain elevated.

For the Rand, the current environment presents a mixed picture. Higher oil prices and a firmer Dollar are generally negative for emerging market currencies, while resilient global equity markets and supportive commodity prices continue to provide some offsetting support. The Rand is likely to remain highly sensitive to shifts in global risk appetite and developments in energy markets.

#MiddleEastTensions #StraitOfHormuz #RandCurrency #GeopoliticalRisks #EmergingMarkets

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

🎉 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝘀 𝟮𝟲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝘆𝗢𝗡𝗘.

What started as a specialist currency risk management business has grown into South Africa’s leading treasury services company, trusted by corporates across the country and beyond.

Over the years, our offering has grown far beyond FX. Today, TreasuryONE helps businesses manage market risk, cash and liquidity, forecasting, treasury technology, treasury operations and the systems that support better financial decision-making.
But at the heart of TreasuryONE has always been our people.

Our growth over the past 26 years has not only been built on products, systems, services or clients. It has been built by the people who show up every day, solve complex problems, build trusted relationships and care deeply about the work we do.
Treasury can be demanding. It takes skill, focus and resilience. But as the quote in our office says: “If it wasn’t hard, everyone would do it. It’s the hard that makes it great.”
That feels especially true today.

On this milestone anniversary, we welcome five new team members to TreasuryONE, the most new employees we have ever had starting on the same day. It is a powerful reminder that growth is not only measured in years, clients, systems or solutions. For us, it is also measured in people.

To every client, partner and team member who has been part of the TreasuryONE journey over the past 26 years: 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙠 𝙮𝙤𝙪. And to our five new colleagues: 𝙬𝙚𝙡𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙩𝙚𝙖𝙢. You are joining us at a milestone moment, and we are excited to have you as part of the next chapter.

Here’s to 26 years of doing the hard things well, and to everything still to come.

#TreasuryONE #TreasuryManagement #CurrencyRiskManagement #TreasuryTechnology #TeamGrowth #SouthAfrica #BusinessGrowth

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

The US and Iran exchanged strikes once again over the weekend, while the peace talks remain stalled as Trump pushes for a tougher deal. Israel's deeper push into Southern Lebanon is further aggravating the geopolitical outlook. Oil prices have jumped nearly 2.0% to above $93.00 this morning, while the Dollar is a touch firmer. Rate hike concerns are keeping the Dollar on the front foot, with markets now eyeing the US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment numbers later this week.

The Rand is showing strong resilience despite the slightly firmer Dollar and higher Oil price. The local currency is currently at R16.23 against the Dollar, at R18.90 against the Euro, and at R21.84 against the Pound. Last week's hike in the repo rate by the SARB has brought the carry-trade back into play and lifting demand for the Rand.

Gold has started the new trading week on a softer note as the geopolitical tensions and firmer Dollar weigh. Gold is currently trading at $4,520, while Platinum and Palladium are also trading weaker.

#MarketUpdate #OilPrices #RandCurrency #GoldMarket #Geopolitics #ForexTrading #CurrencyTrading

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

Yesterday's news of an agreement between the US and Iran to extend the current ceasefire for a further 60 days saw the Dollar soften, and risk sentiment improve. Markets are holding steady this morning as they await final approval from Trump of the agreement. The DXY index is holding just above the 99.00 mark, while Brent crude has fallen further, and the Gold price has climbed.

The Rand is trading unchanged at last night's stronger closing level of 16.22 against the Dollar. The local currency is also holding on to gains made against both the Euro and Pound, trading at 18.90 and 21.82 respectively. The Rand was boosted by the 25bps rate hike by the SARB, as well as the easing of geopolitical tensions.

The ceasefire news and softer Dollar have pushed Gold back above the $4,500 mark this morning. The price of Gold had fallen to a 2-month low of $4,365 on the back of the exchange of missile attacks between the US and Iran yesterday. Brent crude is down by 1.2% at $92.60 this morning on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened to all shipping and that the US blockade of Iranian ports will be lifted.

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

Overnight US strikes on Iranian military sites, and a retaliatory Iranian attack on a US airbase have raised geopolitical tensions, driving safe-haven demand for the Dollar. Israel has also advised residents of southern Lebanon to move north of the Zahrani River, declaring all areas south of the river as combat zones. Donald Trump also dismissed reports that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Oil is trading around 4.0% higher at $98.05, while the DXY index has climbed to 99.50. The Dollar could gain further support later today as markets await the Core PCE price index number, which could confirm the inflationary pressures resulting from the war.

The overnight events have seen a drop in risk appetite, with the Rand weakening to the R16.50 level this morning. The local currency has pulled back to be currently trading at R16.45, with traders expecting the SARB to hike interest rates by 0.25% later this afternoon.

The military escalation in the Middle East, and the stronger Dollar have pushed metal prices lower. Gold is down 1.45% at $4,393, while Platinum and Palladium are down 1.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Base metal prices have also fallen, with Copper, Nickel, Zinc, and Aluminium weaker on the the day.

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

Every modern South African business runs on a global technology stack. Whether you are outsourcing development to a tech agency in Eastern Europe, migrating your infrastructure to Amazon Web Services (AWS), or simply paying for your team’s monthly Microsoft 365 subscriptions, that capital is crossing borders.

Under the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) framework, these payments fall into the 230-series of Balance of Payments (BoP) codes. Unlike standard physical imports, the regulatory distinction here hinges on two critical factors: how the tech is delivered (physical media vs. electronic) and how it is billed (ongoing subscription vs. outright purchase).

To keep your tech stack compliant and your payments flowing, here is a breakdown of the four most vital tech-related BoP codes and the documents you need to support them.

https://t.co/FSg2aUBzli

#SARBRegulations #Microsoft365 #AWS #GlobalTech #TechCompliance #TechStack

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

Risk appetite improved overnight as Asian equity markets surged to fresh record highs, led by Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI on continued AI-driven optimism. Markets are increasingly positioning for a softer geopolitical outcome in the Middle East, while enthusiasm around AI infrastructure demand continues driving flows into global equities and industrial metals. However, valuations are becoming increasingly stretched, leaving markets vulnerable to any disappointment around US-Iran negotiations.

Despite improving market sentiment, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated after Iran accused the US of breaching the ceasefire following fresh strikes in Hormozgan province. Negotiations continue around reopening the Strait of Hormuz and releasing frozen Iranian assets, but markets remain highly sensitive to any headlines as the situation remains extremely fluid. Brent crude eased below $99/barrel overnight, although traders remain cautious given how quickly negotiations could unravel.

Locally, markets remain in wait-and-see mode ahead of Thursday’s SARB rate decision. The rand continues to trade rangebound around the 16.30/$ level despite Moody’s positive outlook upgrade and stronger leading indicator data. Markets are increasingly debating whether the SARB will prioritise supporting growth or move more aggressively against rising inflation risks stemming from higher fuel prices and Middle East tensions. FRA markets continue pricing in at least two additional hikes, while bond investors remain cautious despite improving sentiment towards South Africa’s fiscal outlook.

#GlobalEquities #MarketUpdate #Geopolitics #MiddleEast #SARBDecision #SouthAfricaMarkets

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

US strikes on Iranian missile sites and on mine-laying vessels have raised some doubts over an imminent de-escalation in the US - Iran war. There has been a small bounce in the Dollar and in the price of Oil this morning, while EM currencies have opened on a slightly softer note. Prior to the renewed US military action, the White House had stated that talks were going well, with top Iranian negotiators having travelled to Qatar to iron out differences between the two countries. Thursday's Core PCE price index will be closely watched for clues to the inflation trajectory in the US. Markets are still pricing in a 50% chance of a rate hike in the US later this year.

The Rand is currently up at R16.34, after having closed stronger at R16.29 last night, as the uncertainty over the peace talks weigh. Focus is also on the SARB's MPC meeting on Thursday, with the Reserve Bank expected to hike rates by 0.25%.

Gols is trading near 1.0% weaker at $4,530 as the US missile strikes on Iran dampen peace prospects. Platinum and Palladium are down 1.0% and 1.5% respectively, while Brent crude has climbed to $98.45, up from last night's $96.15 closing level.

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

One of the first questions investors ask is whether money market funds are safe.

It is the right question to ask, but it is also important to ask it properly.

A money market fund is generally considered a lower-risk investment option for short-term cash. That is because it is designed around liquidity, capital stability, and investment in short-dated, high-quality income instruments.

Still, low risk does not mean no risk. Understanding that distinction is important.

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#MoneyMarketFunds #InvestmentSafety #LowRiskInvesting #ShortTermInvestments

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

South African markets start the week on a firmer footing after Moody’s upgraded SA’s outlook to positive from stable while affirming the country’s Ba2 rating. The move reflects improving fiscal performance, stronger revenue collection and continued structural reform progress. Markets are likely to interpret the decision as a strong vote of confidence in SA’s fiscal trajectory, with bonds and the rand expected to benefit from improved investor sentiment and potentially lower long-term borrowing costs.

Markets continue to aggressively price in improving odds of a US-Iran agreement after both sides signalled progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude dropped below $100/barrel for the first time in weeks as traders unwind some of the geopolitical risk premium that has dominated markets since the conflict began. While major hurdles still remain around sanctions and uranium enrichment, markets are increasingly positioning for further de-escalation, which has supported risk appetite globally.

Despite the improvement in oil prices, global central banks remain under pressure from persistent inflation risks. Kevin Warsh officially takes over as Fed Chair at a time when markets are fully pricing in the possibility of another Fed rate hike this year. Rising inflation expectations, elevated fuel costs and weak US consumer sentiment continue to complicate the outlook for policymakers, while bond markets remain highly sensitive to any inflation surprises ahead of this week’s key US PCE inflation data.

#SouthAfricaMarkets #MarketUpdate #MoodyUpgrade #FiscalReform #FedRateHike

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

For decades, economists have relied on the Big Mac Index as a simple way to judge whether currencies are fundamentally overvalued or undervalued. But in a modern urban economy, coffee may actually tell a richer story than burgers.

This is where the Latte Index becomes fascinating. At an exchange rate of roughly R16.60 to the US dollar, South Africa remains one of the cheapest places in the world to buy premium coffee – at least in dollar terms. Yet for local consumers, a cappuccino still feels expensive. That contradiction reveals far more about the global economy than the rand alone.

Recent international coffee pricing studies show enormous variation in the price of a standard Starbucks tall latte around the world. Switzerland remains the most expensive major coffee market, with a latte costing over $7, while countries such as Turkey and Brazil sit near the bottom of the scale. South Africa consistently ranks among the cheaper global markets, with premium coffee generally costing the equivalent of $2.60–$3.20.

👉 Read the full article here: https://t.co/9dU9YqyfeO

#LatteIndex #CoffeeEconomics #CoffeePrices #EconomicInsights #UrbanEconomy

[TreasuryONE @TreasuryONE]

The US dollar remains near a six-week high as investors continue to favour safe-haven assets amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations. While markets initially welcomed signs of possible diplomatic progress, traders remain cautious as major sticking points persist around Iran’s uranium programme and control of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical route for global energy supply.

The latest market moves suggest investors are becoming less willing to aggressively price in a full de-escalation, particularly with geopolitical tensions still capable of disrupting oil flows at short notice. This has kept the dollar well supported against most major and emerging-market currencies.

Brent crude continues to hold above the $104/barrel mark, maintaining pressure on global inflation expectations. Higher energy prices are feeding concerns that central banks may need to keep interest rates elevated for longer, particularly as inflation risks begin filtering through transport, manufacturing, and consumer prices globally.

US Treasury yields have also remained firm following resilient US economic data, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to shift toward aggressive rate cuts anytime soon. Bond markets continue to play a major role in FX pricing, with higher yields underpinning broad dollar strength.

Emerging-market currencies remain under pressure as rising oil prices increase imported inflation risks and reduce appetite for risk-sensitive assets. The South African rand has managed to remain relatively stable below the R16.50/$ level, although the currency remains vulnerable to shifts in global sentiment and commodity-driven volatility.

Markets are also beginning to speculate that persistently higher fuel prices could complicate the SARB’s inflation outlook ahead of upcoming monetary policy discussions, particularly if oil prices remain elevated into the second half of the year.

Gold prices edged lower as the stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields reduced demand for the precious metal. Expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a hawkish stance continue to weigh on bullion despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Meanwhile, volatility across FX and commodity markets is expected to remain elevated into next week, with investors closely monitoring headlines surrounding Middle East negotiations, global oil inventories, and central bank rate expectations.