Read the full paper.
If you trade on Polymarket, two findings from this are worth knowing.
70.8% of users lose money, but the paper figured out exactly what separates winners from losers, and it's not who has better political takes.
Two things matter most:
1. Maker vs taker
On Polymarket, you can either place limit orders (maker) or buy/sell at existing prices (taker). The median user has 0% maker trades; they just hit "buy."
Switching from pure taker to pure maker reduces your chance of losing by 36 percentage points, the single biggest factor in the entire study.
2. Cheap contracts are a trap
The average user puts 63% of their trades on contracts priced below 10¢ or above 90¢. These feel like cheap lottery tickets, but the paper shows they're systematically overpriced. Buyers keep overpaying for unlikely outcomes. It's a well-known pattern in finance called the favorite-longshot bias.
One more: profitability on Polymarket is skill, not luck. Top earners' picks resolve about 15 cents above market price, while worst performers sit about 15 cents below. There's a near-perfect gradient across all 1.4 million users.
Polymarket prices are accurate. A contract at 35¢ resolves yes about 35% of the time. The market works, but that accuracy is exactly why most people can't beat it.
the fastest growing GitHub repos in finance this week:
1. shiyu-coder/Kronos (+6.5K ★)
first open-source foundation model for financial candlesticks. trained on 45+ global exchanges. predicts OHLCV candles as tokens — literally GPT for price charts. accepted at AAAI 2026.
2. virattt/ai-hedge-fund (+4.9K ★)
a team of AI agents simulating Buffett, Munger, Ackman, Cathie Wood and others. each agent runs its own strategy, a Portfolio Manager makes the final call. one of the most viral finance repos right now.
3. TauricResearch/TradingAgents (+~3K ★)
multi-agent LLM trading framework. fundamental analyst, sentiment analyst, technicals, risk manager — all working together. supports GPT-5.x, Gemini 3.x, Claude 4.x, Grok. built by UCLA/MIT researchers.
4. ZhuLinsen/daily_stock_analysis (+~2K ★)
LLM stock analyzer for US, A-share and H-share markets. auto-builds a daily decision dashboard with exact entry/exit levels. pushes to WeChat/Telegram/Discord/Email via GitHub Actions. zero cost, zero server.
5. hsliuping/TradingAgents-CN (+~1.5K ★)
Chinese fork of TradingAgents. fully localized for A-share markets (Shanghai/Shenzhen), Chinese data sources, and domestic LLMs. 5.1K forks — very active community.
6. OpenBB-finance/OpenBB (+~1K ★)
open-source Bloomberg alternative. stocks, crypto, options, derivatives, fixed income — one platform. integrates with AI agents via MCP. 66K total stars and still climbing.
7. freqtrade/freqtrade (+~700 ★)
free, open-source crypto trading bot in Python. supports all major exchanges, full backtesting, strategy optimization, Telegram control. release 2026.3 just dropped.
8. AI4Finance-Foundation/FinGPT (+~500 ★)
open-source financial LLMs trained on real market data — news, filings, earnings. built for sentiment analysis and robo-advisors. models on HuggingFace, ready to deploy.
9. juspay/hyperswitch (+~400 ★)
open-source payments router in Rust. one API to connect Stripe, Adyen, PayPal and 50+ providers. smart routing, high performance, built for fintech scale.
10. microsoft/qlib (+~350 ★)
Microsoft's AI quant investment platform. covers the full pipeline: alpha seeking, backtesting, model training, live trading. supports ML/DL, RL, and auto-quant.
bookmark this and start today.
10 GitHub repo for trading on Polymarket
all of this is free and can help automate your trading
1. prediction-market-backtesting: https://t.co/UnH54KVx9a
backtest trading strategies on real Polymarket and Kalshi data
2. TradingAgents: https://t.co/Lm60e1pdzf
lets you build a complete trading system
3. /last30days: https://t.co/95fwPARvZH
analyzes news from the past 30 days
4. Assistant Tool: https://t.co/AAg4OnT3yF
indicators that show where the market is heading
5. Firecrawl: https://t.co/xre9w58lyr
turns any website into clean data
6. Pydantic AI: https://t.co/FoqInIkY4U
agent framework for building production bots
7. n8n: https://t.co/2ACIwCnW3N
news analysis and filtering
8. Tavily MCP Server: https://t.co/KdQ9YaqK2J
search built
9. Collector & Analyzer: https://t.co/HqUhGJBzmP
collects the full trade history of any wallet
10. Binance Collector: https://t.co/AJzAqWwz0o
predicts market direction and calculates fair value
completely free
$625K Profit in a Single Month
This isn't a human, this is a MACHINE
52,000+ Predictions and counting
While most people struggle to make one right call, this algorithm is firing off thousands
Joined January 2026 and already stacking over half a million monthly
This is what Polymarket unlocked for builders
Raw, transparent, algorithmic dominance
See BoneReader's stats yourself:
https://t.co/CNmbJxXzIX