Treehodl ⚡️

₿ Enthusiast. Decoding the chaos so you don’t have to. Stay calm, stay hydrated & stack sats.

[Treehodl ⚡️ @Treehod123]

What if I told you the money printer was never meant to help you, but to enslave you?

Dr. Saifedean Ammous and Anthony Pompliano just dropped a masterclass on why Bitcoin is the only exit.

Here's the breakdown you can't afford to miss: 🧵👇

[Treehodl ⚡️ @Treehod123]

Game theory playing out in real time folks.

Stack accordingly.

[Diligent Degens @DiligentDegens]

Iran just put a price tag on the Strait of Hormuz and told the world to pay in Bitcoin.

Let that sink in for a second..

Twenty percent of global oil supply moves through that chokepoint.

Every tanker, every barrel, every day.

And the one country sitting on the bottleneck has been cut off from SWIFT, had central bank reserves frozen, and watched its dollar-denominated assets get seized in real time.

Of course they want BTC.

Every other option has a kill switch controlled by Washington.

Saudi Arabia, UAE, even China are watching this play out and running the math quietly.

If Iran pulls off even a symbolic settlement in BTC, every sanctioned or sanction-adjacent economy on earth has a new playbook.

Russia already experimented with non-dollar energy settlement.
Brazil and India have been pushing bilateral local currency deals.

None of those stuck because they all still needed trust between counterparties.

Global M2 is expanding again further the dollar weaponization trend has been accelerating for three straight years.

Real yields are compressing back toward 1.5%, which historically opens the window for non-yielding assets to potentially reprice higher.

All of that was already constructive for BTC on a 6-8 week lag basis.

Now add sovereign demand that has nothing to do with speculation and everything to do with survival.

The countries buying BTC next won’t announce it but just stop showing up at dollar auctions.

[Treehodl ⚡️ @Treehod123]

@Fxhedgers So it begins. 🧱

[BitcoinSapiens ⚡️ @BitcoinSapiens]

MUST WATCH: Robert Breedlove explains how $6 trillion of new money in 2020 equals 100 million years of stolen labor, or 2 million human lifetimes.

One of the clearest metaphors for inflation ever given.

[Treehodl ⚡️ @Treehod123]

@LawrenceLepard @joekent16jan19 Amen.

[Treehodl ⚡️ @Treehod123]

@joekent16jan19 This is mental.

[James Melville 🚜 @JamesMelville]

"The goal is an endless war, not a successful war."

~ Julian Assange

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

@VladTheInflator ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Roberto Rios @peruvian_bull]

the system is a scam.

your money is fake.
your votes don't matter.

they will print and they will wage war, no matter how much you protest.

[Patrick Webb @Patrickwebb]

Got war with iran before a single epstein client went to jail

[Jason Hickel @jasonhickel]

Bombing Iran in the middle of negotiations, while starving Cuba, while genociding Palestinians, while threatening to invade Greenland… the US and Israel are the single greatest threat to humanity and it’s not even close. We are all forced to live in the nightmare they create.

[Charles V Payne @cvpayne]

This is where we usually hear the self-appointed economic purists say entities like Jane are good for markets. They go on about price discovery, liquidity and an assortment of talking points. I'm trying to get my arms around this story but my early assessment is shut it down.

[Roberto Rios @peruvian_bull]

And people called crypto manipulation a conspiracy theory

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

In short:

Jane Street was behind the 2022 crypto crash.
Jane Street is behind the 2026 crypto crash.

The bull run won’t start until these companies are stopped from using insider information to take advantage of vulnerable situations.

[_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_]

Every mean reversion model, from technical to onchain is trading within bottom formation levels, typically seen after the price capitulation event (which Dec 2018 and Jun 2022 were examples of).

Both sell-offs in Nov and Feb are in the hall of fame of Realised Loss onchain. Not the biggest in relative terms, but by far the largest in USD terms, over $7.5 Billion over just those two days.

We're in the bottom 20% of the most conservative, and bottom 5% of the most aggressive deviations from any sane anchor model.

Either Bitcoin is dead, will no longer mean revert, and all your models are broken...

...Or you should be ignoring the bears, staying very humble, and quietly DCA stacking sats from here on.

Price pain is largely behind us imho, however time pain likely remains. It will claim many who don't want to see the rest of the movie.

We often experience retests of the lows, leaky price charts, powerful rallies...and then lower lows...often with a final capitulation event to book-end the time-pain chapter of the bear.

In my view, even though this sounds horrific, it is unlikely we have anywhere near the aggressive rate of decline, nor depth of decline as has already occurred in Nov'25 and Feb'25. The hard part of the drawdown is most likely behind us.

The difference between $17.6k in June 2022, and $15.6k in Dec 2022...was six months (the price delta is frankly irrelevant for any long-term investor).

There is no rush, but these Bitcoin prices are temporary. How temporary we do not know, but it's tremendously oversold, and there are few statistics I am aware of that suggest otherwise.

The bears will spend the next few months liquidating their trading accounts trying to short the bottom of a painful chopsolidation range. The bulls will do the same by getting too hopeful at the range highs.

Investing is a game of picking great assets, accumulating at low prices, and then being patient as fuck.

The 200-week MA is at $58.5k, a mere bees dick below the $60k low we already set. There are still folks out there who want to haggle over the missing 3%.

The Realised Price is at $55k, which from first principles, should stop being visited over time, as it deviates due to unrealised profit in lost coins (a topic for another day). We've already cleared every excess leverage level down to $60k, no stop losses survived February's move.

This is the time to stay humble, and stack sats.

If you're not actively accumulating Bitcoin at this stage, then when? Don't fantasise over lump summing the exact bottom wick. You will be too scared to do it on the day.

Buy the whole bottom. Dollar cost average for the next six months, and remove your emotions from the problem at hand.

A final note; ignore the bears. They will perpetually revise their targets lower and lower, and get plenty of clicks for doing so. Humans love bear-porn because we're wired to avoid risk.

This is literally what a de-risked setup looks like for Bitcoin.

Ignore the bears, they lack ambition.

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

BITCOIN JUST MADE HISTORY.

But it's not something we all wanted.

Bitcoin weekly RSI has just reached its lowest level in history.

- Lower than tariffs Crash
- Lower than the FTX crash
- Lower than the Covid Crash
- Lower than the 2018 bottom
- Lower than the Mt. Gox hack

This means, in the history of Bitcoin, it has never been this oversold.

[_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_]

Based on the 200DMA, it's actually only been this cheap 6% of all trading days.

At $60k, that was 3.6% of days.

[Crypto Tice @CryptoTice_]

I’LL BE BLUNT:

Bitcoin has never made a real ATH while ISM PMI was below 50.
Not once.

Right now?
This entire cycle has lived under 50.

History says this means:
– Economic contraction
– Liquidity building, not peaking
– Risk assets accumulating, not distributing

Translation: this is a buy zone

This is the part of the cycle most people misread every time.

Save this.
When new ATHs print and narratives flip, you’ll thank yourself.

[X Freeze @XFreeze]

Be me, Dutch investor

Netherlands approved 36% unrealized gains tax

WTF does that even mean

Put $1,000 into stocks

Year 1:
• Stock goes to $2,000
• Government: "you made $1,000, pay $360 cash tax"
• MFW I didn't sell anything
• Forced to sell shares to pay
• Everyone else forced to sell too
• Mass panic selling
• Stock crashes to $800
• I have $440 left after paying tax

Year 2:
• Stock recovers to $1,200
• Government: "you made $400, pay $144"
• Forced selling again
• Price drops to $900
• I have $756 left

Year 3:
• Stock at $1,000
• Government: "you made $100, pay $36"​
• Smart money has fled Netherlands
• I have $964 in stock

• MFW I paid $540 in taxes
• MFW stock is back where it started (0% gain)
• MFW I only have $460 left
• Lost 54% on a stock that broke even

MFW the government made more money off my investment than I did

Government: "Thanks for the $540! 😊"

[Liam Gordon @liamgordon]

@KobeissiLetter How do you short a whole country?

[James Van Straten @btcjvs]

The bitcoin lows are likely in.

Supply and profit metrics have almost converged on the 1-hour chart. On the 10-minute resolution, they have fully converged.

Glassnode's lowest recorded price on Feb 5 was $63,000. It does not capture the final capitulation wick to $60,000.

3% of the supply sits between $60k-$63k.