justin

[justin @trendfollower47]

Probably good to close this short out (-28%)

[justin @trendfollower47]

Short $BIRK, core thesis is that resurgence of premium flip flops (olukai, rainbow) are directly competing with $BIRK in their core sandal businesses and are gaining traction due to their comfort and light weight. Additionally, $BIRK is overly reliant on 2 hero products…

[justin @trendfollower47]

@A10tion2A10tion Super interesting data point and thanks for the color in the other replies. Where did u get this data point and is there data on this for their comps as well?

[justin @trendfollower47]

@A10tion2A10tion U think chilis triple dipper, etc are losers to GLP-1s? That was a worry of mine give calories/fat content

[justin @trendfollower47]

Short $BIRK, core thesis is that resurgence of premium flip flops (olukai, rainbow) are directly competing with $BIRK in their core sandal businesses and are gaining traction due to their comfort and light weight. Additionally, $BIRK is overly reliant on 2 hero products…

[justin @trendfollower47]

@Heady_Creek Do u see the trend for flip flops affecting $BIRK, think it could directly cannibalize birk sales in the U.S.

[justin @trendfollower47]

@ErickQuay Really don’t understand how Nike trades at such a premium, good to see price correcting. Continues to lose market share to new comer companies

[justin @trendfollower47]

@k3ithmccullough Still don’t understand how it trades at such a premium to lululemon

[justin @trendfollower47]

@Investor_NICK_ Thought it was interesting that overall search trend and discounting looked pretty bad coming into earnings, which probably lowered consensus way too much coming into print

[justin @trendfollower47]

@arleyryan @partners_road This is also like barely true, ONON is still pretty much discounted by all wholesalers by a decent amount

[justin @trendfollower47]

@AstutexAi 100% agree asics and chunky shoes as a whole has reached saturation. Increased promo + decreasing brand heat among teens

[justin @trendfollower47]

@MattJMcClintock Yeah doesn’t really fit their athletic/technical niche, think most likely their technical stuff isn’t selling well so they are expanding to this other stuff

[justin @trendfollower47]

@Hedge_FundGirl @MattJMcClintock Def more directly competitive but I also feel that vuori has been a known competitor to Lulu for years but it was only recently with the surge for Alo that people started spreading the narrative that Lulu was losing market share in athleisure

[justin @trendfollower47]

@Hedge_FundGirl @MattJMcClintock Vuori still has a lot of work to do especially for brand awareness among younger people. Only young people I know who wear vuori are prep school kids whose parents wear it. It also shows in the TikTok data, #vuori is 100x smaller than #lulu

[justin @trendfollower47]

@Hedge_FundGirl @MattJMcClintock Do agree with this. Alo pills super easily, vuori and lulu more similar in poly tech

[justin @trendfollower47]

@ConsensusGurus Flipping long here

[justin @trendfollower47]

@ContrarianCurse Probably 1-2 years before return back to a tighter silhouette but completely agree with the saturation thing. Similar things happening in footwear. I think we are near saturation on chunky shoes.

[justin @trendfollower47]

@stcap01 I’m super bearish alo but overall athleisure is not doing well, sentiment seems to be a rotation into denim, loungewear, more formal clothes

[justin @trendfollower47]

@stcap01 Alo. Also recommend watching shift fashion groups video on alo and how easily the clothing pills if you are interested.