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トレンドマスターの未来を見つめるフラクタル分析
@trendmaster_GFT
10年もの時を経て、ついに解禁！ 門外不出の禁断のチャート原理『#フラクタル分析』を解説した数少ない珠玉の一品！天賦の才を今あなたに！『#ゴールデンフラクタルトレード #GFTFX』トレーダーの方にもご納得いただける内容です。再フォローはご遠慮下さい。プレゼント希望の方はDM下さい。
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Joined October 2011
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ドル円は怪しいので、撤退！
ドル円が楽にゆったり上昇していきそうですね。眠いですが､､､
スプレッドが狭まってからポジろうか考えようと思いますね。
#USDJPY
ドル円が楽にゆったり上昇していきそうですね。眠いですが､､､
スプレッドが狭まってからポジろうか考えようと思いますね。
#USDJPY
Who to follow
司波悠李
@48_enbunkure
25↑ 雑多¦低頻度の絵¦ﾘﾄﾘﾝ必読 ﾏﾛ: https://t.co/d5E5Rv1Nvh NG▶︎▷御本人様以外のイラスト使用・無断転載・自作発言・AI学習使用
トレードパフォーマンス・コーチ:Tommy
@TradeCoachTommy
2013年からトレードを始め、投資・トレードの教材に1000万円超を費やしながら、一時は年間380万円の損失を経験。諦めずに立て直した実体験をもとに、多くの損失を出し、苦しみの中「次こそは」と手法を探し続けているトレーダーの皆さんに、メンタル×手法の両軸で指導を行っています。
ランチ会長 
@wl0411
〔テーマ：--〕 ※本物はアカウントIDが@wl0411の一つのみです。コア取引時間：21時半～24時【株】今後も爆上げ・ジリ上げ期待を感じる銘柄を探し続けます(オリジナル投稿でOUTPUT)。銘柄・テーマ・地合いの地道な研究がベースですが、実践では再現性重視です。【FX】ドル円メイン
人と話すのが面倒なので、トレードやってるのに、電話しないといけないのは、どうかと思う
トレードしてるので、電話出たくないんですけど…
これは正解！
ボールの中心に米粒があるイメージで！
当時、耐久性の問題で削除しなければならなかった2022年撮影の動画。
「赤いところを見ればいい革新的なボールだ。」
中山 雅雄 氏（筑波大蹴球部総監督、JFA普及ダイレクター）からの嬉しいフィードバック。
新型ヒノマールでようやくみなさまの期待に応えることができる。
香川真司のドリブルはFWのドリブル。基本的にかかとを付けない。
ベタベタ触るようなドリブルはしない。指の付け根よりも前でボールを触る。
かかと側ではボールをタッチしない。
/
#香川真司 選手の華麗なドリブル⚽️🌸
\
ドリブルをしながら鬼ごっこ⚽️🏃♂️
香川選手を必死に追いかける子ども達💨
華麗なドリブルですり抜けていく
香川選手の足業に注目👀✨
【@crz_official 】【@S_Kagawa0317 】
#セレッソ大阪
#サッカースクール
#選手訪問
ドリブルが上手い選手は、基本的に指の付け根より後ろ（かかと側）ではボールを触らない。MFなどのパサーのドリブルとFWのドリブルは異なる。
【鎌田大地】高校時代
スムーズなタッチだけど触る回数が多い
@smplyw 内田があえて外まで開いてトラップ👏
$JRSH is moving after the company reported much stronger earnings than last year. Their revenue is up 46.6%, they’re back to profitability and have plans to expand production capacity.
Because of the good news buyers stepped in so we took the $6.40 break as a gamble play and price went on to hit $9.93 for a +55.16% move 💸
We’re 3/3 green so far this morning 💚
$JRSH Q4 2026 earnings: Massive Operating Leverage Drives Record Profits, Despite Margin Dilution
Jerash finished FY26 with an exceptional quarter. Revenue accelerated 46.6% YoY to $42.9 million, clearing out previous shipping backlogs. The real story, however, is on the cost side: operating expenses actually fell in absolute dollars YoY despite the massive revenue surge, causing operating income to multiply more than 5x to $2.3 million. However, underneath the headline earnings beat, gross margins slightly compressed as the company trades pricing power for volume by diversifying its customer base.
Full article with charts - link in bio
🐂 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞
• 𝐔𝐧𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐋𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 — Total operating expenses plummeted to 11.7% of revenue in Q4, down from 16.4% a year ago. Management has successfully normalized logistics costs and controlled SG&A, letting top-line growth drop straight to the bottom line.
• 𝐕𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 — The company's production facilities are fully booked through December 2026. To meet this, Phase 1 of their factory expansion will add 15% capacity by late 2026, and an additional 20-25% capacity will come online by mid-2027.
🐻 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞
• 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧 𝐃𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 — Q4 gross margin fell to 17.1% from 17.9% YoY. The company is securing new clients (like Hansoll Group), but these orders carry a lower margin profile, requiring volume and automation to compensate.
• 𝐍𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰 — Despite record net income, cash dropped $2.6 million YoY because the company aggressively spent $5.1 million on CapEx (including a new manufacturing building) to chase future growth.
⚖️ 𝐕𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭: 🟢
Bullish. Jerash is successfully capitalizing on the macro shift of global brands diversifying away from Asian manufacturing. While customer mix is diluting gross margins slightly, the sheer volume and tight OpEx control are driving massive earnings acceleration.
𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐬
🟢 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 𝐓𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐝: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 "𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐏𝐥𝐮𝐬 𝐎𝐧𝐞" 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭
Jerash is heavily benefiting from global apparel brands shifting their supply chains away from Southeast Asia and China. Jordan is emerging as a preferred manufacturing hub due to free trade agreements and duty-free import advantages to the US, keeping Jerash's order books fully booked through December 2026.
🟢🟢 𝐀𝐠𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 [NEW]
To service the accelerating demand, management is aggressively expanding. Jerash purchased a new manufacturing building and land for $3.4 million. Phase 1 of renovation will add 15% to capacity and 700 workers by late 2026. A secondary expansion phase by mid-2027 will contribute another 20-25% in capacity. This provides a clear runway for double-digit revenue growth through FY27 and FY28.
🟢 𝐋𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐑𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
Jerash has structurally lowered its operating costs by shifting import/export routes to the Aqaba port in Jordan to avoid the geopolitical disruptions at Israel's Haifa port. Management also explicitly cited "increased automation" as their primary technology driver to enhance production efficiencies and protect margins amid scaling.
🔴 𝐂𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐃𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬
Despite management touting "economies of scale," the actual data contradicts the narrative that volume is improving unit profitability at the gross level. Q4 gross margin fell to 17.1% (from 17.9% YoY). Furthermore, Q1 FY27 guidance sets gross margin expectations even lower at 15-17%. Jerash is winning new customers, but it is clear they are doing so at lower price points or less favorable product mixes.
🔴 𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬
While both Aqaba and Haifa ports were operating normally this quarter, Jerash's operations are highly sensitive to Middle Eastern geopolitical stability. Previous quarters saw millions in revenue deferred due to port bombings and Red Sea transit issues. Any flare-up could instantly freeze outbound shipments, trapping cash in inventory.
⚪ 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐥𝐞 [NEW]
Despite posting $3.6 million in Net Income for FY26, Free Cash Flow was negative. Operating cash flow of $2.49 million was entirely consumed by $5.13 million in CapEx. With significant facility build-outs planned through mid-2027, investors should expect capital expenditures to remain elevated, suppressing free cash generation.
𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐊𝐏𝐈𝐬
𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐬 (% 𝐨𝐟 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞): 11.7%
Accelerating operating leverage. Total operating expenses in Q4 were $5.0 million, representing just 11.7% of revenue, an almost 500-basis-point drop from 16.4% in the prior year quarter. This was driven by significantly improved control over export logistics costs and lower stock-based compensation.
𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲: $30.0 million
Stable. Inventories rose modestly to $30.0 million from $27.7 million a year ago. Given the 46.6% surge in Q4 revenue and 20%+ guidance for Q1, this indicates highly efficient inventory turns and validates that goods are actively moving out of ports without bottlenecks.
𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞
𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟕 𝐐𝟏 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞: ~$47.5 - $48.3 million (+20% to +22% YoY)
Accelerating vs historical averages, though sequentially decelerating from Q4's massive 46% surge (which benefited from catch-up shipments). This guidance indicates that the expanded baseline of demand from new customers is structural, not a one-off.
𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟕 𝐐𝟏 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧: 15.0% - 17.0%
Decelerating. This is a step down from the 17.1% achieved in Q4 FY26. Management explicitly noted this is due to an "increased emphasis on customer diversification and reduced seasonality." Winning new business is currently coming at the expense of peak margin realization.
𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬
𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐂𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐬
As we diversify the customer base to smooth out seasonality, we are seeing gross margin compression. What is the structural gross margin floor we should expect as these new, lower-margin orders become a larger part of the mix?
𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐎𝐈 𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞
You cited increased automation as the primary lever to improve gross margins via economies of scale. When exactly will the capital deployed for automation begin to demonstrably expand the gross margin percentage?
𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐄𝐱 𝐑𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟕 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧
With the Phase 2 expansion aiming to add 20-25% capacity by mid-2027, how much additional CapEx is modeled for FY27, and will we need to tap the $20 million in undrawn credit facilities to fund it?
![Finsee_main's tweet photo. $JRSH Q4 2026 earnings: Massive Operating Leverage Drives Record Profits, Despite Margin Dilution
Jerash finished FY26 with an exceptional quarter. Revenue accelerated 46.6% YoY to $42.9 million, clearing out previous shipping backlogs. The real story, however, is on the cost side: operating expenses actually fell in absolute dollars YoY despite the massive revenue surge, causing operating income to multiply more than 5x to $2.3 million. However, underneath the headline earnings beat, gross margins slightly compressed as the company trades pricing power for volume by diversifying its customer base.
Full article with charts - link in bio
🐂 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞
• 𝐔𝐧𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐋𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 — Total operating expenses plummeted to 11.7% of revenue in Q4, down from 16.4% a year ago. Management has successfully normalized logistics costs and controlled SG&A, letting top-line growth drop straight to the bottom line.
• 𝐕𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 — The company's production facilities are fully booked through December 2026. To meet this, Phase 1 of their factory expansion will add 15% capacity by late 2026, and an additional 20-25% capacity will come online by mid-2027.
🐻 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞
• 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧 𝐃𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 — Q4 gross margin fell to 17.1% from 17.9% YoY. The company is securing new clients (like Hansoll Group), but these orders carry a lower margin profile, requiring volume and automation to compensate.
• 𝐍𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰 — Despite record net income, cash dropped $2.6 million YoY because the company aggressively spent $5.1 million on CapEx (including a new manufacturing building) to chase future growth.
⚖️ 𝐕𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭: 🟢
Bullish. Jerash is successfully capitalizing on the macro shift of global brands diversifying away from Asian manufacturing. While customer mix is diluting gross margins slightly, the sheer volume and tight OpEx control are driving massive earnings acceleration.
𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐬
🟢 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 𝐓𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐝: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 "𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐏𝐥𝐮𝐬 𝐎𝐧𝐞" 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭
Jerash is heavily benefiting from global apparel brands shifting their supply chains away from Southeast Asia and China. Jordan is emerging as a preferred manufacturing hub due to free trade agreements and duty-free import advantages to the US, keeping Jerash's order books fully booked through December 2026.
🟢🟢 𝐀𝐠𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 [NEW]
To service the accelerating demand, management is aggressively expanding. Jerash purchased a new manufacturing building and land for $3.4 million. Phase 1 of renovation will add 15% to capacity and 700 workers by late 2026. A secondary expansion phase by mid-2027 will contribute another 20-25% in capacity. This provides a clear runway for double-digit revenue growth through FY27 and FY28.
🟢 𝐋𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐑𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
Jerash has structurally lowered its operating costs by shifting import/export routes to the Aqaba port in Jordan to avoid the geopolitical disruptions at Israel's Haifa port. Management also explicitly cited "increased automation" as their primary technology driver to enhance production efficiencies and protect margins amid scaling.
🔴 𝐂𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐃𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬
Despite management touting "economies of scale," the actual data contradicts the narrative that volume is improving unit profitability at the gross level. Q4 gross margin fell to 17.1% (from 17.9% YoY). Furthermore, Q1 FY27 guidance sets gross margin expectations even lower at 15-17%. Jerash is winning new customers, but it is clear they are doing so at lower price points or less favorable product mixes.
🔴 𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬
While both Aqaba and Haifa ports were operating normally this quarter, Jerash's operations are highly sensitive to Middle Eastern geopolitical stability. Previous quarters saw millions in revenue deferred due to port bombings and Red Sea transit issues. Any flare-up could instantly freeze outbound shipments, trapping cash in inventory.
⚪ 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐥𝐞 [NEW]
Despite posting $3.6 million in Net Income for FY26, Free Cash Flow was negative. Operating cash flow of $2.49 million was entirely consumed by $5.13 million in CapEx. With significant facility build-outs planned through mid-2027, investors should expect capital expenditures to remain elevated, suppressing free cash generation.
𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐊𝐏𝐈𝐬
𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐬 (% 𝐨𝐟 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞): 11.7%
Accelerating operating leverage. Total operating expenses in Q4 were $5.0 million, representing just 11.7% of revenue, an almost 500-basis-point drop from 16.4% in the prior year quarter. This was driven by significantly improved control over export logistics costs and lower stock-based compensation.
𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲: $30.0 million
Stable. Inventories rose modestly to $30.0 million from $27.7 million a year ago. Given the 46.6% surge in Q4 revenue and 20%+ guidance for Q1, this indicates highly efficient inventory turns and validates that goods are actively moving out of ports without bottlenecks.
𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞
𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟕 𝐐𝟏 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞: ~$47.5 - $48.3 million (+20% to +22% YoY)
Accelerating vs historical averages, though sequentially decelerating from Q4's massive 46% surge (which benefited from catch-up shipments). This guidance indicates that the expanded baseline of demand from new customers is structural, not a one-off.
𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟕 𝐐𝟏 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧: 15.0% - 17.0%
Decelerating. This is a step down from the 17.1% achieved in Q4 FY26. Management explicitly noted this is due to an "increased emphasis on customer diversification and reduced seasonality." Winning new business is currently coming at the expense of peak margin realization.
𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬
𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐂𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐬
As we diversify the customer base to smooth out seasonality, we are seeing gross margin compression. What is the structural gross margin floor we should expect as these new, lower-margin orders become a larger part of the mix?
𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐎𝐈 𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞
You cited increased automation as the primary lever to improve gross margins via economies of scale. When exactly will the capital deployed for automation begin to demonstrably expand the gross margin percentage?
𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐄𝐱 𝐑𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟕 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧
With the Phase 2 expansion aiming to add 20-25% capacity by mid-2027, how much additional CapEx is modeled for FY27, and will we need to tap the $20 million in undrawn credit facilities to fund it?](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HK2qKbqXcAA4KZ2.jpg)
全部読んでませんが、冒頭だけ確かに…
円安が続きます。
政府が市場介入までしたにもかかわらず、円安の流れを止められていません。
このままいけば円はさらに安くなり、食料やエネルギーなど輸入物価が上がり、家計を直撃します。
また、長期金利もじりじりと上がってきています。
政府債務の利払いが今後、急速に増えて財政を圧迫していくことになります。
経済の体温が冷たかったデフレ、マイナス金利、ゼロ金利、アベノミクスの時代から、インフレ、そして金利のある新しい局面に日本経済が入ったのだという認識のもと、それにあった責任ある経済政策が必要です。
少し前に１ドル１００円といっていた時代と比べて、１ドル１６０円の今日、ドル価格が同じでも輸入品の円価格は１．６倍になります。
日本が海外からの輸入に頼るエネルギーや食料の価格は、現地通貨建てでは横ばいであっても、円安につれて国内価格が上昇します。
年金受給者や所得が低い世帯にとって、円安にメリットはありませんが、円高になればエネルギーや食料品の輸入価格が低下し、可処分所得が増えることになります。
もちろん、円安、円高、それぞれにメリットデメリットがありますが、今日の日本では、円安でホクホクする企業ではなく幅広い世帯の家計が助かる円高基調の経済を目指すべきです。
円を円高基調に戻すためには、小手先の市場介入は全く意味がありません。
まず日銀に対して政策金利の引き上げを牽制するような政府の発信を止め、日銀はゆっくりと、しかし確実に政策金利を引き上げ、政府は財政収支の均衡を実現するという政府と日銀の新しい政策協定を結ぶべきです。
家計における円預金と住宅ローンなどの債務を比較すると、日銀による金利の引き上げは利子収入の増加、家計の総収入の増加につながります。
デフレでゼロ金利、マイナス金利と言われていた時代には、国債の利払いを意識することなく、基礎的収支（プライマリーバランス）の均衡を目指せば事足りましたが、金利のある時代になった今、政府債務の利息の支払いを含めた財政収支の均衡を実現する必要があります。
政府は、ガソリンの暫定税率の廃止によって開いた穴を埋め、防衛予算の引き上げや高校無償化をはじめとする政策経費の増加への対応をしなければなりません。
１９９０年以降、政府の歳出は歳入を上回り、財政赤字を垂れ流してきましたが、その間、日本経済の潜在成長率も横ばいのまま、経済が好転したわけではありません。
政府がお金を使えば経済が良くなるわけではありません。
むしろ、その間、雇用をはじめとする規制改革やデジタル、ＡＩなどの先端技術の導入が遅れ、新たな産業やサービスが国内で立ち上がらなかったことが、経済成長を妨げてきました。
今回のホルムズ海峡の封鎖を含め、国内のエネルギー価格が上がるたびに、政府は電気、ガス、ガソリンの価格を引き下げるための補助金を出してきました。
たしかにそれは家計にとっては一時的にありがたいことかもしれません。
しかし、そのために政府の財政赤字は大きくなります。
日銀が大量の国債を購入している現状では、政府の財政赤字はインフレを加速させます。
また、本来、エネルギー価格の高騰を受けて、再生可能エネルギーへの転換が進んだり、住宅やビルの断熱が進んだりして、次の危機が来たときには影響が以前より小さくなるはずですが、補助金のおかげでそれが進みません。
結局、次のエネルギー危機でも同じような影響を受けてしまいます。
たしかにガソリン価格が上昇した時に、低所得者や公共交通機関、運輸業界などへの一時的な支援は必要かもしれません。
しかし、ロールスロイスやフェラーリに給油するガソリン価格まで、財政の補助で引き下げる必要はありません。
環境フレンドリーホールディングス（3777）は、北海道苫小牧市でAIデータセンター事業を計画する「AI Tech Tomakomai 株式会社（ATT社）」を子会社化しました。
この取り組みは、同社が推進する再生可能エネルギー事業とAIデータセンターの電力インフラを一体化させる「ワット・ビット連携」を狙った戦略的な案件です。
苫小牧市の冷涼な気候や用地確保のしやすさを活かし、GPUを活用したAI計算資源の提供を目指します。まずは10MW規模での立ち上げを計画し、今後は本格的な事業化に向けて段階的に検討を進める方針です。
I'm following the $AAP flow. Bought some July $67.50 calls for $2.30.
Monthly finally cleared through its long term downtrend. Retested, held, and started a new uptrend with room to $67-$68. If it breaks through, will have further upside to $74-$75.
Large short interest in this name as well.
$AAP Looks primed - Massive move comes over $70
$AAP (Advance Auto Parts Inc.)
Reclaimed the high-volume edge (HVE) level, which is now acting as short-term support and a potential launch area for continuation. Structure is improving as price stabilizes above the reclaimed zone.
Verdict: Buy.
Hard disk and storage stocks have been flying 10-20x last year. Most of them like WDC, STX and SNDK are already gone but this $NTAP thing is interesting!
26 years of building this triangle!!! 👀 Breakout could send to Mars and beyond!
Not confirmed yet... But def. looking good! 💪
"NetApp (NTAP): Focused on intelligent data infrastructures for cloud and hybrid environments"
2026.05.28
$NTAP (NetApp) 決算
・ファンダシグナルは 🟢✨
・時間外株価 +14%📈
・EPS／売上とも市場予想を大きく上回る
・粗利率70%台維持／営業利益率は過去最高記録
・次期／通年ガイダンスも強気
・ＡＩ主導のデータインフラ需要が加速
・ハイブリッドクラウドプラットフォームの長期優位性
・ヘッドライン数値は⇩／詳細はnoteにて
#米国株決算 #ファンダシグナル
◆FY26 Q4決算
🟢 EPS $2.43(2.27)【YoY+25.9%】
🟢 売上 $1.948B(1.87B)【YoY+12.5%】
◆次期ガイダンス
🟢 EPS $2.05-2.15(1.84)【YoY+35%】
🟢 売上 $1.750-1.900B(1.67B)【YoY+17%】
https://t.co/oN3NXgIZF7
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