Trey Arnold

Psalm 23 | Founder @totaltdy | Air Force Academy '19 | Sound money enthusiast

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

On the same day our national debt surpassed $40 trillion - poetic

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

2009: “Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”

2026: “Treasury Secretary on brink of bailout for long end yields and YCC”

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US Treasury announces it will double the size long-term US government debt buybacks following the rapid surge in US Treasury yields.

Repurchases of $2 billion will now be increased to "at least" $4 billion, the US Treasury said.

The move is intended to provide "liquidity support" for bonds maturing in 10 to 30 years as total US debt nears $40 trillion.

There is the intervention we have been calling for.

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

“Borrow from the public at large” said another way by the wise @FormerDrJeff: passing on the tab via inflation to the users of its currency

[Jeff Ross @FormerDrJeff]

Remember that government "deficit" eventually leads to currency "debasement."

Said another way, when governments constantly borrow and spend beyond their means, the users of its currency (in this case, the US dollar) pick up the tab via inflation.

Good morning. ☕️

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

The fiat monetary system allows governments to "borrow from the public at large" without their permission. Why risk revolt from increased taxation when you can just print money out of thin air to cover your compounding deficits?

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

Now imagine there was a magic button that printed money out of thin air to cover your undisciplined spending. The only catch is that pressing it would erode your children’s savings tangibly enough to feel the pain, but slowly enough that they couldn’t identify the cause.

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

Imagine creating a “budget” for your family with $5,000/mo of income, spending $11,467 in a single month, and just piling the deficit atop your existing stack of debt, thereby incurring a larger expense burden the following month from the added interest expense.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

July: The Federal Government took in $334 billion and spent $766 billion.

That's a $432 billion deficit in just one month.

Don't try this at home.

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

Debt snowball accelerating. Watch out below!

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US Government officially posts its largest July budget deficit in history, at -$432 billion, due to an acceleration in federal spending.

Interest on US debt rose +$26 billion from last July's levels to an alarming $118 billion for the month.

This puts total interest expense for FY2026 up to $1.17 trillion in FY2026.

As a result, interest expense has officially surpassed both National Defense and Medicare spending.

In other words, the US government now spends more money just on interest than it does to fund the entire US Military or to provide healthcare for seniors.

We cannot afford higher interest rates.

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

@PrestonPysh @CJ_Bitcoin Been listening to your podcasts and following your work since 2020. Thank you, Preston! Much respect

[The Gospel Coalition @TGC]

Good Friday reminder:

“The man on the middle cross said I could come.”

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

https://t.co/3X0iQXFsBA

[River @River]

@APompliano One of the biggest.

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

Now more than ever, it is an imperative to understand inflation and protect your savings against further debasement. This is just a starting point - enjoy the journey!

https://t.co/Nop0LL4uW6

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

CPI is not true monetary inflation. Your real yield from HYSA, bonds, or traditional investments is much lower (or likely negative) when calculated against the appropriate measuring stick.

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

"Nothing produced limitlessly and for free can ever, eventually, have value. Fiat is always and everywhere a ponzi phenomenon"

[NYDIG @NYDIG]

We are pleased to share the Stone Ridge 2025 Investor Letter from Ross Stevens, Founder and CEO https://t.co/LiNlcIe2EC

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

Don’t overcomplicate the “debasement trade.” It’s just saving your money, but updated for the 21st century.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

@elerianm @jpmorgan @CNBC We call it "saving our money."

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

Look at this chart carefully. Realize that the growing deficit is mathematically unsolvable with a declining population in labor (#1 inlay) and increasing population in retirement (#1 outlay).

This is guaranteed to break in our lifetime.

Risk-free will become risk-guaranteed.

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

The US dollar has lost nearly 30% of its purchasing power since 2020.

1/3 of your savings has been destroyed in half a decade.

The silent destruction of a generation.

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

Choose your fighter

[Preston Pysh @PrestonPysh]

Update to fiat currency debasement thread from OCT 2020.

Chart since the #Bitcoin halving event on 11 May 2020

Bitcoin: +1,125%
Nasdaq: +151%
S&P500: +119%
Gold: +93%

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

What do you think happens in the next 10 years?

[Matt Hougan @Matt_Hougan]

Half of all US debt has accumulated in the last 10 years.

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

Bitcoin has no top because fiat has no bottom. Any hard asset denominated in continually diluting paper will grind up in value (in USD terms) over time. Is real estate today 10x more valuable than it was 100 years ago? No - the money we're measuring it against is 10x less valuable.

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

"In the United States, the money supply has historically grown by an average rate of about 7% per year. If you hold cash or cash-equivalents like T-bills and are earning an interest rate that is not keeping up with the growth rate of the money supply, then your share of the system is shrinking. You're being diluted."

-@LynAldenContact

Stop getting diluted.

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

When you account for monetary inflation, your "high-yield" treasuries actually have a negative real yield. This is theft, obfuscated.

[jim iuorio @jimiuorio]

Here’s my response to Scott Bessents comment that you will always get paid what you’re owed owning u.s. treasuries…

[Trey Arnold @treyarnold_]

Brace for impact: the world is about to wake up to the financial prowess of $MSTR.
-$14.1 billion Q2 gain from BTC price appreciation that will reflect in quarterly operating income with new FASB accounting rules
-This quarterly gain will rank $MSTR among top 10 companies in the world for quarterly operating income
-Most "analysts" are still projecting a negative EPS for $MSTR in Q2, whereas actual EPS will be closer to $39-$40
-At Q2 earnings call, Wall Street will wake up to the reality of Strategy's winning strategy at the same time that S&P 500 front-running begins in full force

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Strategy Announces $4.2 Billion $STRD At-The-Market Program