The Psychology of Stock Market Cycles📕
Bitcoin isn't quietly marching to new all-time highs right now. Instead, it's reliving the agonizing psychological playbook of every past bubble: the intoxicating rush of greed gives way to denial, then anxiety, fear, and finally gut-wrenching despair.
The "hopefools" clinging to narratives of endless upside are about to face the harsh reality check.....the kind that wipes out portfolios, shatters illusions, and leaves only the battle-scarred survivors.
Stay vigilant, stay prudent, perhaps curious, but most importantly, stay beautiful.💫
Yours truly,
The Great Martis🦉
GOLD & SILVER – UPDATE✨
As highlighted yesterday, there were critical resistance levels that needed to be decisively recaptured to maintain bullish momentum. Failure to do so opened the door to either prolonged consolidation or more concerning a potential backtest of the major underlying trendlines.
Today, price approached those resistance zones… and was firmly rejected. We now turn our attention to the next couple of days of price action. How the market behaves here will provide valuable clues about the short- and medium-term direction for both gold and silver.
Patience remains key.
Stay safe, stay calm, stay curious.
Yours truly,
The Great Martis
🚨WARNING🚨
They first ignored the warnings of the Great Martis on Bitcoin. Now livelihoods have been lost.
The second , they ignored the opportunities in precious metals. Fortunes were there to be made, yet missed.
The third, they ignored the alerts about silver and gold’s unsustainable parabolic moves. More livelihoods destroyed.
Now the most vital warning of all.
The infamous yet beautiful Nasdaq broadening pattern grows ever more likely to play out in full force. 23k is the first line of defense.
The last line of defense is 22k. Once 22k falls, the broadening pattern’s lower boundary is triggered...chaos follows.
Ladies and gentlemen, it’s all fun and games… until the Great One is proven right once again.
Yours truly,
THE GREAT MARTIS
GOD BLESS AND GOD SPEED.
She's beautiful .
In short :
Buy if you can hold for 2 years .
This breakout , all time high , just wow , what a trade deal, all this is nonsensical stuff.
Do some deep work and buy decent companies , that’s it.
Reuters: J.P. Morgan predicts gold surging to $6,300/oz by end-2026 on robust central bank buys & investor demand!
My view is little different. I feel high of $5598 on Gold is unlikely to be cracked at least in 2026. Gold Top for 2026 already in place.
What is your view?
#Gold #Commodities
Yeah, I think you are absolutely right that insiders have full news today. Before the budget, everyone knew that something negative might come, seeing the sell-on-rise market structure. And when everyone turned negative, or we can say bearish, a sudden trade deal happened. But insiders are doing their business; no one else can do anything.
The new STT rule does not really punish risk. What is punishes is a small, and often systematic edge.
Here is how
Imagine two traders -
1. A retail trader who trades occasionally. Say he bought 1 lot NIFTY at 100, and sold at 120.
2. An algo or HFT person or scalper. His trades are usually like buy at 100, sell at 101.
For the first person, his P&L is 20x65 1300 Rs. STT as of now is 8 Rs, after the hike it will be 12 Rs. Even then it is very small compared to the overall P&L. For the second person, the P&L is 65 Rs. The increase in STT of 4Rs is a 6% drop in P&L per trade
In short - this is not going to punish retail YOLO trading. What it might render unviable is
- High frequency
- Low per-trade edge
- Large gross turnover relative to net P&L
1) You make money from stock markets, government will figure out a way to tax you more (2024 budget)
2) You make money from SGBs (Gold Bonds), government narrows tax exemptions (2026 budget). And, eats into your profits.
3) So keep your money in FDs. And, wait for Viksit Bharat (2047 Budget). Taxes are going to go to 0% then.
But, if you are serious:-
1) Start learning US Equity investing.
2) Build a large enough capital base overtime.
3) Move your tax residency. Access, products that can actually help you plan your retirement.
I used to get a lot of hate for writing all this. Now, people are slowly realizing why the above steps are critical.
Fact remains: to plan your retirement in India, you need to invest abroad.
* India remains a good trading market, but not an investable market anymore. Buy cheap, sell high, invest abroad.
If you trade 2 lots NIFTY FUT daily
Earlier cost/day: ~₹900
Now cost/day: ~₹2,030
Monthly Impact (20 trading days)
OLD: ₹18,000
NEW: ₹40,600
💸 Extra Outflow: ₹22,600/month
💸 ₹2.7 lakh/year vanished in charges
Not losses — just TAX.
#Budget2026