Strong 3‑day green candle on #Bitcoin. This pattern has often appeared near local bottoms (see 2022).
Because of it, I see lower odds of a deep drop below ~57k$, though a retest is still possible. My current view: ~60% chance BTC dips under 57k$ once more.
Three Bitcoin capitulation moments in the current bear market. Each major drop came with a surge in weekly trading volume — a sign of mass selling and potential local bottoms. 📉 Nov 2025 (~$80K) 📉 Feb 2026 (~$60K) 📉 Jun 2026 (~$57K)
Such spikes often mark cleansing phases.
The moment the Fed tightened liquidity in May, Bitcoin lost its momentum.
BTC topped just days before the shift, and the downtrend started right after.
Macro liquidity still calls the shots — understand it, and you stay ahead of the market.
The chart shows Bitcoin’s monthly RSI, which closed at 38.22 at the end of June — the lowest reading this indicator has ever recorded. At that moment, BTC was trading around $58,500.
DCA into BTC below $60k isn’t a bad idea at all. I expected Bitcoin to drop under $60k.
My model still suggests that BTC could fall a bit further, but these levels already look like a solid starting point for gradual accumulation.
The S&P 500 confirmed a monthly Hanging Man at the very last moment of 2025.
December closed below November — the signal is now confirmed.
My view: ~70% chance this bull market has topped.
Do with that what you will.
@bariksis@benjamincowen If you would listen to Ben you would learn that he speculate like you do. Your speculations just look very bad. If you would listen to Ben speculations you would made nice money since 2022, when btc hit the bottom.
@thejbullmarket@benjamincowen Don't fight the Fed. When the Fed changes the magnitude of its balance sheet, BTC normally drops also in bear markets.
The Fed looks at macro data, and the macro looks worst since Fed ended QT with a reason.
Someone is dumping anything they can — as if tomorrow doesn’t exist. In my view, that “someone” is the United States, acting out of panic to protect the Dollar. Their currency, everyone’s problem.
They look calm on camera. But behind the scenes? I’m certain they’re sweating.
I’m convinced that alliances that held for 70+ years are no longer active. The old world agreements are dead. As I wrote in my S&P 500 thread: the US Dollar has become a target — not only for enemies, but for former allies.