$SPY $QQQ
Jackson Hole 🕳️ 2025 🍌
For those who remember , last year I forecasted a 50bp cut days before Powell Speech at Jackson Hole. And it happened ... weeks later the Fed lowered the federal fund rates by 50 basis points.
One year later here I come again 🍌💛
This time there are more balls flying around which makes it more tricky but I'll explain my take.
We've got a tale of two economies , on one side disinflation has been the steady drumbeat , core CPI cooled overall. Sadly there was a recent bump which was July PPI jumping 0.9% MoM the hottest in quite some time , thanks in part to tariff pressures pushing up goods and services costs.
On the other side we have labor market showing some cracks , retail sales mixed , demand tricky and household debt climbing. These guys needs to remember they have a DUAL mandate. And so far despite the recent bump showed on PPI , the constant for weeks has been a disinflationary environment and mixed labor market and consumer
Powell WONT ignore the labor side. He shouldn't 👀 he most likely will downplay the recent PPI as transitory. Bottomline this pressures could evaporate via deals or policy shifts.
A 25bps will be hinted "officially" or as I say , he will plant the seed for that move 🌱 even after that rates will continue restrictive enough to control any potential upside on inflation but also will bring some initial support to growth.
Not financial advice !!!
Much love 🍌💛💛💛
Today marks 7 years on X.
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