Certificate read 8.0% moisture; the cargo landed at 9.6%, past the 8.5% penalty threshold. The tonnage was real. The payable metal per dry tonne was not — a wet-season pad added water the assay never modelled.
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As lender's technical advisor, we read feasibility back-to-front: (1) LOM strip 4.2:1 hides a year-two 7:1 that sets fleet and early capital; (2) 10% contingency on a Class 4 (−30%/+50%) is a placeholder. Which is on your bench?
#Feasibility
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At vendor qualification, the resource can tie cleanly to JORC 2012 while the deal still leaks value one layer down: sponsor runs provisional grades, offtake reconciled to final assays. Same shipments, two numbers.
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A data room can reconcile internally and still be wrong externally. A 3.2% NSR on provisional payable tonnage never restated after final assays cut 1.8% at discharge. The control point is the shipment, not the spreadsheet. Does yours reconcile?
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A 1.0 mg/L discharge limit cleared on composite feed. But the year-two high-arsenic variability zones never saw the same circuit. The number that satisfied the permit isn't the number the plant meets at steady state.
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Recovery on paper said 92%; the plant held 87% for a full quarter. The 5-point gap wasn't one failure — four small ones stacked: sampling drift beyond ±2%, P80 creeping 150→180µm, reagent regime lagging feed. We reconcile in stages, not headlines.
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Two Competent Persons, one deposit, a 22% swing in Indicated tonnage. Assays reconciled. The variance sat in JORC 2012 classification: 50m vs 35m drill spacing across the same fault. Both defensible on paper. Only one survives an LTA's questions.
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Design file: static FoS 1.5. As-built berm after the regulator's walk: phreatic surface 2m higher than the stability model assumed. GISTM review reconciles piezometer readings, deposition rate and beach width against the report.
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Moisture read 8% at the pad; the lab dried to 6% before the split. On a 40,000-tonne parcel, that two-point seam reopened the offtake. Not a lab error — the drying protocol was never reconciled to the Incoterms transfer point. #DueDiligence
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Feasibility that clears the credit committee can still fail the LTA on three points: a Class 3 AACE deck (-20%/+30%) with under-10% contingency, a month-6 nameplate assumption, and an unreconciled opex base. Worth pressure-testing before close?
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In vendor qualification, the headline resource rarely fails first. The seams do — modifying factors under JORC 2012 that never reconciled with QP sign-off, offtake assays that diverge at the shipment. Worth pressure-testing before close?
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A 2% NSR paying on schedule for eight quarters can still be underpaid. If the royalty base nets TC/RC and payable-metal deductions the deed never permitted, the ledger ties out while the anomaly hides.
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A locked-cycle recovery of 90% means little if the P80 on the test bench can't hold at full throughput. As lender's TA, we reconcile grind, reagents and residence time against the permitted water balance. The discharge consent sets the ceiling.
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Design says 92%. Plant held 87% for six months. The cells were fine — the reconciliation was never re-run after the ore hardened. When the two-product balance and the weightometer diverge >2–3%, recovery is a claim, not a measurement. #Metallurgy
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Two competent persons, one deposit, two Indicated tonnages 19% apart. Neither erred on the maths—they diverged on the drill spacing accepted as continuity under JORC 2012. Variogram range ~55m: fine in the high-grade core, thin at the margins.
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A design factor of safety of 1.3 reads clean until the inspector reconciles the piezometer record. Assumed water table two metres low, drained parameters undrained in reality — 45° becomes 38° at review. On paper the wall holds. #geotechnical
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Moisture is the line item nobody defends until the shipment weighs light. Book concentrate at 8% in the offtake model, reconcile against 11% at loading, and a 5,000t parcel hides ~150t of water the buyer won't pay metal on.
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A DFS earns its label when four numbers reconcile. Reserve: only Proven and Probable under JORC/NI 43-101, no Inferred in the schedule. Throughput: model rate = plant design basis. Does yours reconcile? #feasibility
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In a vendor qualification, we reconciled a 3-year-old JORC 2012 Indicated tonnage against the mining consents held. Roughly 40% sat outside the permitted footprint, awaiting an extension still on the regulatory clock.
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A royalty stream is only as clean as the tonnage the payer declares against it. The anomaly hides in reconciliation: mill report vs. concentrate assay vs. royalty settlement.
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