The coming rally in #BTC - in #ETH - and in #ALTS is going to blow everybody over!
We are setting up for a Moon Shot!
But - remember - it will be short-lived!
If your sad about crypto prices, read this :
In late 2023 at mega alt/sentiment lows I was checking out at Whole Foods. Fan saw me. Talked crypto.
Guy overheard. Interrupted and said "cryptos never coming back".
I just replied "You'd be surprised".
Shortly after this the low 7 figure amount I had in the market multiplied into mid 8 figures.
Take a step back. Crypto sentiment was SO BAD that normies literally were interrupting you in public to tell you how bad it was.
This was LITERALLY the best time be buying alts and the WORST time ever to sell.
Crypto POV wasn't just bad. You were embarrassed to even say you were into it. Normies thought it was cancer.
Within 6 months the same normies were meme trading experts and giving TA on X. Telling everyone it was just getting started.
We are at a VERY similar moment right now.
People are leaving crypto for good. You are mocked for being in the space. No one is excited about anything, its all ass.
I offer no prediction or certainty.
But if you think crypto is dead and we are out for good
I will simply tell you...
You'd be surprised.
$ETH has lost its $4,000 support level again.
25 bps rate cut, QT ending in a month and US-China trade talks happened within 24 hours, and yet Ethereum is down.
Either this is a classic bear trap, or the crypto market is going way lower.
We’re going to look back at the news of $Plume becoming an official registered transfer agent by the SEC as being the ultimate signal that $Plume is the real deal
Just connect the dots.
TradFi wants tokenization and $Plume is going to be the platform to do it for them
They can now legally provide all the functionality for them to tokenize all future investments on-chain
My thesis on $Plume has never been stronger 🔮
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A genius, coordinated exploitation of a Binance pricing flaw — executed precisely during a moment of global uncertainty (Trump’s tariffs) to make it look like a “natural” market crash.
Did Ethena Really Depeg?
I’ve seen a lot of chatter about the Ethena depeg during the market mayhem this weekend. The story is that USDe briefly depegged to ~68c before recovering. Here’s the Binance chart everyone is quoting:
But digging into the data and talking to a bunch of folks over last couple days, it's now clear this story is not correct. USDe did *not* depeg.
First thing to understand about USDe: its most liquid venue is actually not on exchanges, it’s on Curve. There’s hundreds of millions of dollars of standing liquidity on Curve, while only tens of millions on any given exchange, including Binance.
So if you just look at that chart of USDe on Binance, it looks like USDe depegged. But if you superimpose the other liquid venues for USDe, you get a different picture:
We see here that while USDe wicked down on every CEX, it did not do so uniformly. Bybit briefly hit $0.95 then quickly recovered, yet Binance depegged a crazy amount and took forever to regain the peg. Curve meanwhile dipped a mere 0.3%. What explains this difference?
Remember, every single exchange was under immense load on that day—it was the single largest liquidation event in crypto history. Binance was extremely unstable during this period, causing MMs to be unable to shift inventory because APIs were failing and withdrawals and deposits were bricked. Nobody was able to step in and arb.
It’s like a fire broke out on Binance, but all of the roads were blocked and firefighters couldn’t make their way in. This caused a wildfire to break out on Binance, but pretty much everywhere else, that fire was immediately put out by bridging liquidity. (As Guy shows in his post, USDC also depegged a few cents temporarily on Binance due to the same general instability issues—liquidity just couldn’t get ferried in, but this wasn’t a depeg event for USDC either.)
So OK. Unsurprising that while there’s API instability, prices on exchanges are wildly different because nobody can get inventory in. But why did it decline so much deeper on Binance than on Bybit?
The answer is twofold—first, Binance did not have any primary dealer relationship with Ethena to be able to directly mint and redeem on-platform (Bybit and other exchanges have this integrated) which allows MMs to stay on-platform and still perform peg arbitrage. This is huge, as otherwise an MM has to take their money *out* of Binance, go do the Ethena peg arb, and then bring back their inventory. Nobody was doing that in a moment of crisis when APIs were failing (plus so many other coins were cratering).
Second, Binance had their oracle poorly implemented and started liquidating positions they shouldn’t have—good liquidation mechanisms don’t trigger on flash crashes. If you are not the primary venue for an asset (which Binance is not for USDe) then you should look at the price on the primary venue. If you are only looking at your own order book, you will liquidate too aggressively. This caused Binance to start liquidating USDe as though it was worth $0.80 or whatever, which caused a cascade. This is a big part of the reason why Binance is refunding people who were liquidated on USDe (other exchanges AFAIK are not doing so)—they messed up by only looking at their own price instead of the true external price.
So this was a Binance-specific flash crash, which better market structure could’ve prevented. USDe on its primary venue, Curve, was actually trading at a tight peg the entire day. This is really different from what you’d describe as a depeg.
If you remember USDC in 2023 during the banking crisis, this is what an actual depeg looks like:
During the banking crisis, USDC traded down on every single venue. There was *no* place where you could buy USDC for $1. Redemptions were literally halted, so $0.87 was the *true* price. That’s what a depeg means.
This instead was a Binance-specific dislocation. It’s a big lesson for market infra, but critical to understand the nuance here if you are trying to draw inferences about USDe’s mechanism from this weekend.
USDe was fully collateralized and worth $1 on its primary venue through the entire episode and actually increased its backing collateral over the weekend due to the price action. That said, this kind of market instability is ultimately good because it exposes lessons for the whole industry. Guy’s post below lays out how any exchange, including Binance, can avoid this kind of issue in the future.
TL;DR: USDe did not depeg, Binance did.
The so-called ‘trade war’ is really just proof that globalism finally ate itself. The West sold its manufacturing soul to China decades ago, and now Beijing’s using it as a weapon. Both governments are pretending to fight for their people, but let’s be honest it’s corporations, lobbyists, and power brokers who win while workers worldwide pay the price.
“Oh, I’m sorry. We will do it better next time”.
Fuck***ng clowns! Close the account and move on. It’s the best you can do.
It is PRECISELY at moments of stress that you measure the quality of a product or a company. That tells you everything you need to know. Your money deserves better!
In the wake of the large sell down in stocks on Friday, on the fears of a 100% China tariff and an escalating trade war, BTC held up okay.
Internally BTC was building a bullish structure with increasing inflows which likely shielded it.
So far the flows are holding up OK.
The insider who placed trades 30 minutes before Trump’s tariff announcement walked away with $192M in profits ($104M + $88M)
The Hyperliquid accounts involved were only created today
We see u Barron
Barron Trump officially certified as a trading prodigy
With god tier market instincts and flawless quantitative analysis, he just executed a $1.4B profit shorting the crypto market with a perfect timing
Professional traders are speechless, the kid is on fire
Respect 🔥