Tulip Critique

Aspiring L/S PM. NFA

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

$GEO Political Patronage Meets High-Margin Growth - $51 Price Target

My Substack note here: https://t.co/TAioypFoU8

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

Bond vigilantes out slamming 10yr yields are ignoring reality. Real yields (10yr less inflation ests) at 2.9% are nowhere near alarming. They’re acting like the ME conflict and energy shock don’t exist. Hard to see long duration working in this environment if they’re right $QQQ

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@wallstengine RIP IT.

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@Coffffee2020 Appreciate it

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@leevalueroach Still kick myself for not shorting $FICO off pure anecdotal evidence. Knew a girl in HR there. Wokest organism on earth. Spoke fluent LinkedIn and genuinely thought she was the main character holding the company together. Sigh.

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@RegenbaumShaun @central01000011 😂

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@Coffffee2020 Haha hang this in the Louvre.

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@CapitalJurassic The street is mostly modelling GTA Online for the holiday season. Agree on the upside for $TTWO if they hit that window.

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

The Fed’s decision to hike and keep another one on the cards is pure bluster. I expect the 10yr to retrace and equities to move higher in tandem starting today. Trading note: Always buy the dip when equities get trashed the day of - the rally usually comes the following day.

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

Let’s hope for a dovish one and done and get this 10yr moving south. Markets currently at 94% for a hike.

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@bert_gilfoyle !!

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@GerberKawasaki @BillAckman This isn’t a winner takes all investment decision. You can’t assume $TSLA takes 100% mkt share. Adoption is slow & meaningful chunk of riders will actively avoid anything tied to Musk. It’s akin to trying to displace an existing platform - those 210m MAU don’t disappear overnight

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@SkillJoy_00 @ChrisCamillo My $TTWO $371 PT based on FY28 Adj EPS $12.81 vs WS $10.30. Assumptions:

-FY28 cumulative sales 80m (50m yr1 & 30m yr2)
-$60 ASP
-95% of players register for online followed by 50% MAU $15 ARPU per Q
-I model a shift from 65% RCS in FY27 to 74% in FY28 which captures Zynga & 2k

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@SkillJoy_00 @ChrisCamillo You're still not defining what you think is already priced in. If the edge exists, it has to live in the gap between consensus expectations and reality. What are those consensus numbers, and where is the gap? Show the math.

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@bert_gilfoyle Thank you Bert - very helpful.

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@British_Enjoyer Very different. Violent moves in rates led to UK pension funds receiving margin calls on LDI positions and as a result selling anything liquid. Absolute level vs speed of the move.

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@CapitalJurassic @mithridatistcap Agree.

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@mithridatistcap Happy to keep buying on the way down. The cheaper $TTWO goes, the more I like it.

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

For those waiting to buy $TTWO under $230, you got a gift y’day. I doubled my position y'day after it bounced off its 200 day MA (~$228). Nothing has changed since the whole leak debacle. Doubt unit vols will take a hit & worst case 3Q vols move south & play catch up in 4Q.

[Tulip Critique @TulipCritique]

@amitisinvesting @ChrisCamillo 2028 EPS ests should jump 25-30%. I’m currently at Adj EPS $12.81.