savvyinvestor

Financial literacy evangelist:

With focus on:
#independence
#happiness
#minimalism
#globalmacro
#valueinvestor
#payitforward

[savvyinvestor @tungasaurus]

@AJEnglish UK is cooked

[JILL @1Swinging_Voter]

WOW those HOUSE #QT triggered Albanese.
He went off his head. SCREECHING and YELLING when asked about how he was able to negative an existing house but he just RIPPED that opportunity off young people. #AUSPOL Remember this ....

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇮🇷 The Iranian Embassy in South Africa posted this with the caption:

"The way the United States closed the Strait of Hormuz."

They're still winning the meme war 🤣

[savvyinvestor @tungasaurus]

@aakashgupta I'd add one more

Attention < quality of your close relationships

https://t.co/PEftfukRRk

[StockMarket.News @_Investinq]

Paul Tudor Jones just said something the market really doesn't want to hear.

"We're clearly so leveraged in equities in this country. We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929, we were at 65%. In 1987, about 85%. In 2000, we got to 170%. And now we're at 252."

Every number he listed, 1929, 1987, 2000 ended the same way.

"If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every ten years. That would be a 30 to 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 89% of GDP. The reverse wealth effect, oh my gosh. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains; they go to zero."

This isn't a perma bear making noise but Paul Tudor Jones called the 1987 crash before it happened and made 200% that year.

When he talks about mean reversion, he's speaking from a track record that almost nobody in finance can match and then he said this:

"If you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward returns are negative when you buy with the S&P P/E of 22. That's what history shows."

He's right, every major study on long-term equity returns shows that starting valuation is the single most predictive variable for 10-year forward performance.

At a P/E of 22, history doesn't give you a great answer.

"The real problem is, if you look at private equity in 2007 and 2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16%. Real estate's gone up. Infrastructure bets have gone up. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008."

In 2008, the crisis was bad because the system was leveraged.

Today the system is leveraged and illiquid, pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds can't hit a sell button on private equity.

They can't exit real estate in a week, when forced deleveraging starts in a system this illiquid, the exit doors are half the size they were last time.

Jones didn't say a crash is coming tomorrow.

He said the conditions that produce the worst outcomes in financial history are more present right now than at any prior peak he's seen in 50 years of trading.

He said buying the S&P at these levels and expecting the same returns as the past 100 years is math that doesn't work because those 100-year averages include decades when stocks were priced at 6 or 7 times earnings, not 22.

"Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high, and it's going to be really hard to make money from here."

[savvyinvestor @tungasaurus]

@Geiger_Capital @JordanEliseo I love that scene

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

*STRAIT OF HORMUZ STILL CLOSED, IRAN WILL NOT TALK TO AMERICAN INFIDELS

The stock market:

[savvyinvestor @tungasaurus]

@RapidResponse47 Not sure about that

https://t.co/ljDCY3lIwM

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Hands down, Iran's winning the sh*tposting contest

The latest AI Lego video, Strait Outta Iran, is wild

Source: @drew_ponder

[Furkan Gözükara @FurkanGozukara]

LMAO whoever made this is a genius 😭🤣😂

[ชลน แมวส้มแท้ๆ 🐱 @chaleenajaja]

เมื่อเชฟย่องเข้าครัวไม่ถามสักคำ 5555555555

[Russian Market @runews]

This goes too far

[savvyinvestor @tungasaurus]

@MasculineM7 Could have done without the thirsty trap intro

[savvyinvestor @tungasaurus]

@akafaceUS @grok did her employer really fire her?

[savvyinvestor @tungasaurus]

@RT_com Tucker Carlson should invest in some Kevlar.

[savvyinvestor @tungasaurus]

@AyatollahAraafi @crushthemarket @DailyChinaNewss @grok is this true

[savvyinvestor @tungasaurus]

@AndrewGold_ok @equis_group @shaunattwood He's not dead yet ?

[Matt Van Swol @mattvanswol]

I think I know why everything sucks...

...and it's because everything is fake

We are getting fake college degrees that cost 4 years and six figures that teach you fake education and get you fake jobs.

We are eating fake food, with fake ingredients, funded by fake research.

We are scrolling through fake lives, with fake relationships, who take fake, curated vacations to promote brands that make fake products.

We are voting for fake candidates, who run on fake promises, inside a fake system that was never designed to fix anything.

We are raising kids in fake schools that teach fake history, fake science, which quietly produce fake adults who can't think for themselves.

We are watching fake news, about fake crises, produced by fake journalists, for fake outrage.

We are borrowing fake money that was printed from nothing, to fund a fake economy that would collapse in an afternoon if people stopped pretending it was real.

We are buying fake organic food that's just a paid label, and drinking fake juice with two percent juice in it, and putting fake cheese on cheeseburgers that's just "cheese product" on fake burger meat.

We are donating to fake nonprofits where the moeny never makes it to the people and then funding fake foreign aid that buys real weapons to prop up fake governments.

We are going to fake therapy that teaches fake coping skills instead of telling you hard truths.

We are buying fake furniture made of fake wood that's actually compressed sawdust and glue that looks like wood, ships in fourteen boxes with instructions written in a fake language that isn't quite any language, requires tools it doesn't include, takes 4 hours to build, wobbles on day 1, and is totally destroyed in 6 months.

We are downloading fake "free" apps that charge a subscription after three days for AI features that don't work, hidden behind a paywall we didn't see, protected by a privacy policy we didn't read, buried inside Terms of Service written by lawyers specifically so we wouldn't read them, that we agreed to by tapping a button the size of a thumbnail, that gave a company we've never heard of the right to sell our data to companies we'll never hear of, to build a profile on us we'll never see, to influence decisions we'll never know were made.

IT. IS. ALL. FAKE.

And we all yearn for what was once real.

Don't you remember? Did you forget?

There was a time with a simple handshake between men was a contract.

When bread went stale because... well, that's what real bread does!

When kids played outside all day until it was dark, and nobody tracked them.

When a family could live off a single income.

When music was made by people who LIVED something real and you could feel it.

When schools was HARD... and that was the point!

When doctors knew your name and your family, they even came to your house,

When you bought something once... and it was yours forever.

When the chair your grandmother bought once lasted 70 years and she passed it onto your dad.

And now nothing is real, and that's why everything sucks.

[savvyinvestor @tungasaurus]

Russia to ban gasoline exports
Stakes just got higher.

https://t.co/fTR7GOw3Ea