Turkey Monitor

Breaking news, live updates, analyses, info boxes on Turkish politics, economics and security landscape. Powered by @RDMAdvisory.

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

X bans Istanbul Mayor and CHP’s Presidential Candidate Imamoglu’s account due to “legal demand.” Imamoglu, Erdogan’s main rival, was arrested on 19 March on vague corruption allegations, in a move widely seen as political.

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

Turkey’s main opposition CHP wins first election victory since 1977, in major blow to Erdogan’s AKP, keeping major cities Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir and adding 14 more. #Turkey #TurkeyElections #elections

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

“We could not get the results we wanted.” “This was our 18th elections. God willingly we will continue to win.” “There is good in everything that happens” President Erdogan after defeat in #TurkeyElections.

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

President Erdoğan in first message after his party’s defeat in local elections: “31 March is not the end but a turning point for us.” #turkey #TurkeyElections

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

Turkish court sentences philanthropist Osman Kavala to life imprisonment and 7 other defendants (Mücella Yapıcı, Çiğdem Mater, Hakan Altınay, Mine Özerden, Can Atalay, Tayfun Kahraman, Yiğit Ali Ekmekçi) to 18 years in prison over #GeziPark protests. Sham. #GeziTrial

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

Turkey’s FM Cavusoglu said that they decided that the situation changed into a “war” in Ukraine and that they will be implementing Montreux convention requirements, i.e closing straits to warring nations. But any ship from a warring nation can return to its home base. Symbolic.

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

Another rate cut by CBRT followed by another lira crash. After 100 bps cut to 14%, USD/TRY trades at 13.38 at GMT1130, up %3.75. Lira now has lost more than half of its value in 2021. Brinkmanship.

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

Turkey’s CBRT under political pressure by President Erdogan cuts interest rates by 200 points to 16%, beyond market expectations, further weakening TRY in the face of USD. USD/TRY ⬆️ 2% after decision, 1 USD=9.4 TRY. Eclipse of reason.

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

Lira's freefall continues. After news of removal of another key CBRT official, TRY lost another 5% of value vs USD. USD/TRY is trading at 13.47 at GMT 1730 on Tuesday.

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

First messages from the incoming Fin Min, the third in little over one year, mimic President Erdogan's unorthodox views: Will ''not prioritize high interest rates,'' and aim for ''higher investment, production and exports.'' Gimmick. https://t.co/YETOsxEKLC

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Turkey's main opposition party leader Kılıçdaroğlu calls for a ''first rally'' against the recent economic mismanagement which threw lira off balance and caused 15% loss of value against the USD. Action.

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

Snap commentary on Lira's new 10% crash on Tuesday after Erdogan's and his ruling partner's latest statements. The Vicious Cycle continues... #EMEA #emergingmarkets #Finance #economy https://t.co/D8N6SxBU46

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

In light of the lira crash following politically motivated rates cut Ankara is a melting pot. All the signs are present for early elections, inc. those from Erdogan’s own govt. Can the regime hold its ground until 2023? How far can Erdogan go in measures? https://t.co/8pkelIui8c

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

US Emb says it maintains the diplomatic principle of “non interference in the internal affairs,” re: Pres Erdogan’s expulsion threats over 10 ambs’ call to release philanthropist Osman Kavala. Erdogan finds the statement “favourable,” according to state media. De-escalation.

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Turkey downgraded to FATF’s “gray list” and needs to show it is “effectively tackling complex money laundering cases and pursuing terrorist financing prosecutions.” Shame. https://t.co/FX1grvo399

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

Excited to announce that our first video with @HollingsCenter is now available with English subtitles! It’s Iran 101: Hardliner president, domestic rivalries, street protests, sanctions, regional interventionism and more! https://t.co/RUCDaW6pSi

[Turkey Monitor @Turkey_Monitor]

Turkey to come off UK’s red-listed countries for travel on 22 Sept. Late.

[RDM Advisory @RDMAdvisory]

We are excited to collaborate with @HollingsCenter to discuss Iran’s new era and what it means for the region and beyond. #SaveTheDate #7July The event will be in Turkish to be followed by a commentary in English here at @RDMAdvisory. Stay tuned!