TylerOnTheHill

Political news & elections analysis | Polls, early vote, DC takes | Unfortunately a Cowboys fan

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

I'm Tyler. I'll be sharing my thoughts on politics, elections, and whatever's happening in Washington.

I approach politics from a liberal perspective, but I value facts over vibes

Expect political analysis, occasional humor, and probably some frustration with the Dallas Cowboys

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

@politicsw_joe 📸

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

🚨PSA on Texas early vote 'collapse' posts:

Comparing day 8 to day 1 tells you almost nothing. Day 1 is always the biggest surge. Compare the same day to 2024 or 2022, or don't bother 👇

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

Paxton at 40 in a GOP-sponsored LV poll is eye popping to me. With 16% undecided, he needs to win them by roughly 3 to 1 just to tie.

That's possible in Texas, but Paxton needs about 62% of undecideds just to break even

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

Two very different Texas polls, one direction:

Univision/YouGov (RV): Talarico 50, Paxton 45. In the same poll, Abbott leads 48–46 and the Texas generic ballot is R+3.

Cor/Heritage Action (LV, GOP-sponsored): Talarico 44, Paxton 40.

Talarico runs ahead of the Democratic ticket in both. And Trump is flying to Texas to rally a week out. You don't do that in a safe state.

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

New Texas Poll

🔵Talarico 44%
🔴Paxton 40%
UNDECIDED 16%(!)

A week out from election day. Push your leaners 😑

[Political Polls @Politics_Polls]

Texas Senate:

🔵 Talarico 44% (+4)
🔴 Paxton 40%
Undecided 16%

Cor Strategies/@Heritage_Action 🔴, 1,409 LV 10/10-15

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

@jckthesword Yea, this is one of the weirdest polls this cycle. I'm not in the business of not believing polls. But it's definitely raising a red flag for me

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

NEW Marist Poll 🚨
Maine (LV,Oct 22–25):

🔵Jackson 49
🔴Collins 47

Their early-October RV poll had Jackson 51–47. The LV screen tightens it, but Collins is still under 48 a week out

This is the Senate's tipping point seat in On Point's model

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

Nevada same day comparison to 2024:

A swing of +64,100 votes towards Democrats. Republicans need to change this trajectory or it's so LombardOVER.

[umichvoter @umichvoter]

Nevada firewall grew to 🔵 D+24,100 tonight

The same day equivalent in 2024 was 🔴 R+40,000

Election Day was only R+1% in 2024 but obviously that can change from election to election

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

Check out my in-development interactive Early Vote/Election Night tracker! Any feedback is much appreciated!

https://t.co/e8zNeI3q9t

Still a work in progress:)

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

@Dems4Paxton

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

Check out my in-development interactive Early Vote/Election Night tracker! Any feedback is much appreciated!

https://t.co/e8zNeI3q9t

Still a work in progress:)

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

Dems KEEP expanding their early vote lead in Nevada. Completely reversing the trend we saw in 2024.

[Dr. John R. Samuelsen @JohnRSamuelsen]

Early in-person, Clark County, NV (SoS)

10/26/2026 - 5:00 pm PT
Dem 5,254 (38.5%)
Rep 4,976 (36.5%)
Other 3,414 (25.0%)
Total 13,644

Dem +2.0% (2024 Rep +14.7) (2022 Rep +14.2)

Dems keep gaining, D+17 vs '24, D+16 '22 so far. Among Dems' best days of early in-person.

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

3/ Caveats: hourly check-ins are unofficial and projected, and turnout isn't vote choice. The real tell is the final cumulative numbers after early voting ends Friday, Oct 30

ALSO - I am creating an interactive Early Vote/Election Night Tracker! It's very much a work in progress, so please go visit and let me know what you think!
https://t.co/TA9l2mJWX7

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

2/ Watch the hours, too. Montgomery opened an extra 7-8 AM hour today. On matching hours (8 AM to 4 PM), it's about 11,531 today vs 11,468 last Monday, which is flat. @DjsokeSpeaking

And adjust for growth. MontCo, Hays, and Ellis are getting real boosts from population growth vs 2024.

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

Genuinely shocked

The first time EVER the second place finisher won the runoff

We just witnessed history. Congratulations Brazil! 🇧🇷

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

🇧🇷 Datafolha: Lula da Silva wins re-election as Brazil's president.

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

4/ Caveats:
This is unofficial data from 177 counties, voting in a primary isn't a vote in the general, and crossover voters count in both rows.

But the energy gap in favor of Dems is real and it's coming from the low engagement voters

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

1/ The most interesting thing about the Texas early vote isn't the D vs R topline.

It's WHICH voters are turning up👇

[Theo @theoelections]

Here is how the high Democratic enthusiasm looks compared to 2024 and 2022.

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

3/ The GOP equivalent:
434,845 by day 6, vs 614,861 in 2024.

And even the most loyal Republicans, who voted in all 4 GOP primaries, are behind 2024 (272,043 vs 310,565).

[TylerOnTheHill @TylerOnTheHill]

Bellwether that he knows he's going to be out of a job.

Best time to look for a job is while you still have one!

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Puck News: Pete Hegseth is trying to convince Marsha Blackburn to appoint him to her US Senate seat if she wins the governor’s race in Tennessee.