DYOR @typedre - Twitter Profile

🚨The SomaliFraud Investigation Has a Cash Problem.. Remember our number: $700MM moved in two years, a burn rate of rough $1MM, every day, for around 730 days. We’re talking about an industrial pipeline of cash. There are more than a problems here, but let’s go through a couple: 1. Physical cash is not infinite at the branch level. It’s ordered, tracked, and replenished through a Federal Reserve district system that is designed to notice abnormal demand. Now put that into Minnesota. Not New York. Not California. Not Texas. Minnesota has a finite banking footprint, finite vault cash, finite armored-car routing, finite Fed cash-office capacity relative to the national hubs. So if MN alone was sourcing anything close to $1MM a day in high denominations for two straight years, you’d see strain. You’d see persistent, repeat demand, unusual denomination ordering, recurring cash logistics. You’d see it because the system has to move the paper from somewhere. And the Fed doesn’t “guess” about that. They account for it. That kind of sustained pull would stick out to the people whose entire job is watching demand, ordering patterns, and abnormal flows. 2nd Problem: Two states wouldn’t fix his issue. OH + MN still leaves the same daily requirement. You still need a million dollars a day, still need continuity, still need reliability. You still need enough branches, enough institutions, enough cash order capacity, enough distance between the transactions so the pattern isn’t screaming from the dashboard. If you try to push that volume through only OH & MN, you’d concentrate the signal, compress the footprint, and create repetition. Repetition is how you’d get caught, not on day one, but at some point within that 2 year period, you are getting nailed. When a pattern forms, multiple layers of oversight can see it. Bank compliance teams see it, BSA/AML monitoring systems see it, Federal cash distribution oversight sees it. Airports… Inter state agencies. You get the point. And that leads us to our 3rd problem: If the story is “they declared it at the airport,” that does not make it invisible. Declarations create paper trails. So if the cash is being sourced, consolidated, and exported on a drumbeat for two years, the only way it stays operational is by spreading the sourcing footprint wide enough that no single district, no single metro, no single cluster of branches is carrying an abnormal share of the load. That means our “two-state” theory is implausible if not impossible. And it doesn’t hold on how many different tripwires would start chirping once that demand becomes consistent. So where does that place us in SomaliFraud right now? It places us in a multi-state network—AT LEAST—5 states. More plausibly 5-8. Why? Because 5-8 states lets you dilute the daily pull into smaller, more “normal-looking” slices. It lets you rotate institutions and geographies, avoid hammering one Federal Reserve district with a sustained, abnormal appetite for high-denomination currency, and avoid creating a single obvious hotspot. It also fits the only thing that matters in a long-running operation. Continuity. A scheme that runs two years can’t depend on one state’s vault cash and one district’s tolerance. It needs redundancy. It needs alternate routes. It needs multiple hubs. Essentially, is mandatory for a large enough footprint that the volume becomes background noise instead of a siren. A five-to-eight-state network is the only mathematically feasible option. And that’s exactly why our lens is widening. More soon. 🇺🇸