Mayne Explains Why High Conviction Plays Are Almost Always Fake
"The phrase high conviction play is inherently scammy. Anytime you hear someone talk about something being high conviction, they are trying to shit down your throat with some garbage coin that they've been paid to show you almost every time."
"Go on Twitter and look up the words high conviction and most of the time, nine out of 10 times, maybe 99 out of 100 times that tweet is someone saying I have a high conviction meme coin or high conviction alt coin."
"They either are a paid KOL who's being told to tell you to buy this and they're being paid probably in the token which they're dumping on you immediately plus additional money, or it's some meme coin that they own a bunch of and they go high conviction."
"99% of the time they go to zero. There is no high conviction because it's all fucking fake and gay. All the coins are fake and gay for the most part."
"Even the most high conviction meme coins from last cycle had very short runs. The most consensus meme coins had relatively short runs and all faded to complete irrelevance. The term high conviction on its own has scammy connotations and it just makes me think some snake oil salesman is trying to get me to buy his bags."
many criticized me for flipping bearish on $HYPE and bullish on PUMP
if I'm being honest, I felt the same way; it was odd.
but PUMP rallied +20% higher from my entry since then,
and HYPE is currently trading -20% lower from where I cut.
I trade my strategy. not my feelings.
In trading and investing your early objective is not to make as much money as possible. It is to stay alive, develop repeatable behavior, identify where you genuinely possess an advantage, and become capable of changing before the market forces you to.
At first glance, I’m like yo this dude might be a chad worth a follow with a really convincing story. Then I look at the type of coins being traded on the feed, and saw the coins being recommended are low cap farms.
I was hoping for a real trader with a mechanical repeatable process.
This is theft.
$TROLL has low-key pumped almost 8x in 10 days
it went from crashing 96% from its $280m ATH to as low as $10m, a range it consolidated around for ~100 days while everyone declared it dead... then BOOM, it's up 14x off the lows and 7x in one week all of a sudden
this reminds me of $FLOKI last cycle
it crashed 99% from its $3.5 billion ATH in late 2021 to lows of about $40 million in mid 2022 off the back of the most aggressive FUD i've ever seen directed at a memecoin + the bear market, and many called it dead for good
then all of a sudden, it ripped from $40m to $800m, pulled back and consolidated for a while, and then ripped back to its $3.5 billion ATH (a ~117x increase)
that's memecoins for you!
memecoins have this habit of pumping super hard when they first come out, crashing 90%+ and then consolidating for months as everyone deems them dead, only to erupt from the lows all of a sudden and make new ATHs when no one expects it
every single time, we see people come out of the woodwork to say 'this time is different, memecoins are dead for good for XYZ reason'... then we see the same thing play out again
i've been trading memecoins for three cycles, so trust me when i say i see this play out every single time
if you find a strong, high-potential memecoin i.e.
• strong narrative
• solid normie appeal
• solid distribution (i.e. CEX listings) that allows easy access and liquidity
• strong volume and on-chain fundamentals even during the worst of times
• strong community + critic combo during its lows (i.e. people keep talking about it)
then you should be aggressively bidding it during the lows, even if a lot of vocal critics are calling it dead
and there is no memecoin in the market that hits all of these points more perfectly than $USELESS right now
it is the most normie-friendly memecoin, and the best bet to pull a $DOGE-like rally in the market today IMO
on-chain indicators also point to aggressive and consistent whale + smart money accumulation ongoing right now, which usually precedes a major move
in the early days, Dogecoin emerged as the first real memecoin to make a mockery of Bitcoin, and it resonated with a lot of people
today, USELESS is doing the same thing, but to the entire cryptocurrency sector
and soon USELESS is going to pull a face-melting rally to new ATHs first, and then to multi-billions
it's going to happen very suddenly and very aggressively, and many will be left sidelined
are you positioned? i am!
We gave centralized exchanges too much power in Crypto. They control the listings, the narratives, and control who the winners and losers are. They list bad tokens at all time highs, don't list good tokens low, and ultimately decide on the fate of your funds.