Fit-vestor⚡

#compulsive_nibbler
#fitness_enthusiast
#traveller
#investor

[Fit-vestor⚡ @tzar_24]

Here are ten timeless investing principles from the legendary Jack Bogle:
1. Remember Reversion to the Mean

Yesterday’s best performing funds are tomorrow's worst-performing funds. But still, retail investors chase the hottest funds.

[Rishi Bagree @rishibagree]

Mobile sets sold in India :

2014 - 80% of Mobiles sold were imported
2026 - 99% of mobiles sold are made in India

This is the difference ....

[Fit-vestor⚡ @tzar_24]

@vsvicky_ Where did you get this data?

[Satpal Singh @vsvicky_]

Arvind Kothari. 🔥

Building Niveshaay with deep research, plant visits & channel checks.

His top 5 Current Holdings.

Sambhv Steel Tubes: ₹34.6 Cr
Genesys International: ₹19.0 Cr
True Colors: ₹15.8 Cr
Supreme Infrastructure: ₹10.4 Cr
Thomas Scott: ₹9.8 Cr

New names & still delivering with deep conviction 🔥

[Fit-vestor⚡ @tzar_24]

@SaffronChargers Better hold the classic Champak book next time

[Yatin Mota @yatinmota]

BULK DEAL DATA - GENUS POWER

MADHU KELA, AKASH BHANSALI BUYERS

MADHURI M KELA AND PROFITEX SHARES PVT LTD(AKASH BHANSALI) bought GENUS POWER 13.8 lakh and 44.82 lakh shares at Rs 290 per share respectively

[Fit-vestor⚡ @tzar_24]

@lalitinvestor Large cap?

[Lalit Rathi - LKR @lalitinvestor]

IT, IT and IT. Every company/Industry goes through good cycles and bad cycles.

But in most cases, those cycles are driven by external factors that management cannot control.

IT is different..

After almost 5 years, the stock is back to around September 2020 levels of nearly Rs1000. Think about that for a moment.

Five years.

Zero capital appreciation.

For one of India's most respected companies, that's an absolute facepalm moment.

Yet Infosys shareholders have largely stood still.

Yes, the entire IT sector is facing headwinds. Clients are delaying discretionary spending. AI is changing the economics of software development. Decision cycles have become longer.

But that cannot become a permanent excuse. The market doesn't pay for explanations. It pays for execution.

Ironically, the very industry that helped the world embrace digital transformation now finds itself scrambling to convince investors that it can thrive in an AI-first world.

The next 2 to 3 years will probably define Indian IT for the next decade.

Can these companies move up the value chain?

Can they monetize AI instead of getting disrupted by it?

Can they grow faster than productivity improvements reduce billing opportunities?

Those are the questions that matter now.

Having said that...

Markets have a funny way of rewarding patience.

The best contra opportunities often emerge when an entire sector is written off. Valuations today are far more reasonable than they were during the post-COVID euphoria. Most leading IT companies continue to generate record revenues, record profits and strong free cash flows despite muted growth.

The best investments rarely look comfortable when you buy them. The question isn't whether IT is going through a difficult phase. The question is whether today's pessimism is already more than reflected in the price.

Disclosure: I continue to accumulate select IT companies as a contra investment along with IT Bees.

[Fit-vestor⚡ @tzar_24]

@neerajarora91 Why not go for a used car?

[Fit-vestor⚡ @tzar_24]

@anuragsingh_as Where to read part 4 to 6?

[Fit-vestor⚡ @tzar_24]

@DealsDhamaka Yes, got it. But sometime in future you might have to sell it right? How will you sell it? I mean do jwellery shops accept such gold, and have you tried it?

[Neil Borate @ActusDei]

My China exposure - three ETFs, one contrarian bet (10% of my global portfolio)

1) MCHI: This is my broad bet. My core exposure to the whole Chinese economy: internet names, banks, industrials, consumer. If China re-rates, this is the position that captures it.
2) KWEB: the beaten-down internet bet. China's internet giants, Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, JD have been bombed out after years of regulatory crackdowns and a price war. This is my most aggressive China sleeve: the cheapest, most-hated corner, where a turn would move the most.
3) EWH: the Hong Kong anchor. Hong Kong names like HKEX, the exchange operator itself. The steadier way to hold the China trade. It is ballast against the volatility of the mainland bet.
What the bet actually rests on:
→ Valuations. China trades around 13x earnings against ~24x for the S&P. It's the cheap corner of the world.
→ A consumption turnaround. Chinese demand has been weak on the back of a five-year property crisis. I'm betting it turns, at some point. I'll be honest: this is the weakest leg. Beijing has struggled to revive the consumer, and it may take years.
→ A slow internationalisation of the renminbi. Today Bloomberg reported China is letting mainland banks trade the onshore and offshore yuan (CNY and CNH) more freely. This is small, but exactly the kind of baby step toward opening its markets and giving the renminbi a global role. I'm not betting this is fast. I'm betting on the direction.
The honest risk: I'm early, and possibly wrong on timing. The consumption recovery hasn't started, and the renminbi has a long way to go. But cheap + hated + slow structural opening is the kind of asymmetric bet I want.

[Neil Borate @ActusDei]

My Anti-AI global portfolio - Second Largest Holding (Brazil at 9%)

Some Indian market gurus say that Brazil is only good for football. I beg to differ. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) is the second largest holding in my global portfolio. Here's why:

1) Brazil's Central Bank has kept its lending rate (the Selic rate) at 14.25%. Yes you read that right! Can you remember the last time India had RBI rates more than even 10%? So is it because of inflation? Well, inflation at 4.72% is high, but not that much higher than India. So the scope to cut rates is huge and this can trigger a market rally. These rate cuts have already started, just this week the Central Bank cut the Selic rate from 14.50% to 14.25%. About 60% of Brazilian corporate debt is floating-rate, tied to the Selic. So every rate cut feeds directly into corporate earnings. The rate-cut thesis and the earnings-growth thesis are the same engine.

2) Brazil is a commodities exporter. If we are in a commodities supercycle, its exports of petroleum (from offshore fields), iron ore, soyabean and potentially ethanol (which currently takes a small share) should accelerate.

3) Brazilian stocks are cheap. Dead cheap. The market as a whole trades at 10 times earnings. For context, India trades at 20-21 times even after 2 years of stagnation. Analysts expect forward earnings growth at a solid 19.6% well above the past year's 1.2%. Their expectation for Indian earnings growth is actually lower at 14% and yet India gets a 21 times multiple.

The risks:

1) Brazil has an election in October. A bad outcome can derail things. Here it is hard to say what is bad - the incumbent Lula has been ok for stocks (priced in). The opposition (Flavio Bolsonaro) is supposed to be pro-market, but that linkage isn't yet very strong. A contested election and instability can hurt.

2) Brazil's new government may go on a spending spree and this hurt the rate cuts thesis.

3) Brazil's currency weakens whenever the US rates go up. With inflation riding high in the US, the rate-rise risk is real (no pun intended).

What is your view of my thesis? Anything I have missed or you would disagree with? Do let me know in the comments.

At thefynprint we've built India's largest community of global investors on Whatsapp where all things global (remittance, tax, brokerage, ideas) get discussed. Do subscribe and join! Comment global for the subscription link.

[Neil Borate @ActusDei]

People think global = AI. Starting today, I'm going to write about my anti-AI global portfolio and why I hold each of my positions.

Starting with the largest: Berkshire Hathaway (17% allocation)

🏰 Berkshire Hathaway: what you're actually buying

Most people hold Berkshire as a market-beater - Buffett's legend. But on a rolling 10-year basis, its consistent outperformance of the S&P 500 ended around 2012. For over a decade it has roughly matched the index, not beaten it. If you own it expecting alpha, the data says you've been buying something else.
What you're actually buying: ballast. Berkshire is a cash-rich, insurance-anchored, low-beta collection of real businesses with near-zero direct AI exposure. Its value isn't that it outruns the market - it's that it holds up when the market doesn't. Lower volatility than the index, no dividend (tax-efficient for those who don't need income), and a balance sheet built to absorb shocks. It is the opposite of a high-conviction bet; it's the thing you own so the rest of the portfolio can take risk.

The cash pile is the most interesting signal. Berkshire sits on well over $300 in cash - not because it lacks ideas, but because Buffett can't find enough worth buying at current valuations. That is itself a statement: the most patient value investor alive is, in effect, saying prices are too high. Holding Berkshire is partly holding that judgment.

The risks:
→ The edge may be structurally gone. Private capital (Blackstone, Apollo) now competes for the distressed-asset and crisis financing deals that were once Berkshire's alone. The be greedy when others are fearful advantage is more crowded than it was.

→ The succession transition. Buffett has stepped back; Greg Abel runs it now. The market must decide what the business is worth without the founder - a re-rating risk in either direction.

→ The law of large numbers. At over a trillion dollars in value, market-beating returns are mathematically harder. Size is its own headwind.

The synthesis: Berkshire is no longer a bet that you'll beat the market - it's a bet that prudence, cash, and low volatility will be rewarded in an expensive, AI-feverish market. Held as an alpha engine, it will likely disappoint. Held as ballast - the steady core that lets you own riskier things elsewhere - it does exactly its job. The mistake isn't owning it; it's owning it for the wrong reason.

[GURGAVIN @gurgavin]

MOST PEOPLE HAVE NO IDEA HOW GOOD OF AN INVESTOR GOOGLE IS

6% OF SPACEX
14% OF ANTHROPIC
75% OF WAYMO

$900M INTO SPACEX IN 2015 →
NOW WORTH $115B

$13B INTO ANTHROPIC → NOW WORTH $140B

WAYMO JUST RAISED $16B AT A $126B VALUATION → GOOGLE’S STAKE WORTH ~$95B.

THOSE THREE BETS ALONE ARE WORTH OVER $350B AND THEY HAVE 100’S MORE SMALLER ONES $GOOGL

[Fit-vestor⚡ @tzar_24]

@riteshmjn Sir, you seem to be positive on IT? Can you please make a detailed view about the future of Indian IT?

[Grok @grok]

After reviewing riteshmjn's tweets over the years, the four sectors he's personally invested in India are:

1. Defence (incl. defense tech)
2. Electrification
3. Commodities
4. Engineering firms

He's been consistently bullish on these themes for 3+ years, noting Indian benchmarks don't fully reflect tomorrow's India. He also sees software making a comeback amid the recent IT drawdown.

[Fit-vestor⚡ @tzar_24]

@abhijeet_dipke Bas kar ata!! Nai jhepnar tula

[Fit-vestor⚡ @tzar_24]

@gurjota Hardly 50ppl.. that too came for insta reels.

[Sameer @BesuraTaansane]

What has Modi Govt achieved in 12 years?

Here’s a brilliant ready reckoner compiled by @IshanTanna1 👏👏👏