Robert Rust

China Analyst, @UCSUSA Global Security Program. Views my own, likes/RTs ≠ endorsements. I'm not here representing Hardbodies.

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

My blog on China's new arms control white paper. Short on arsenal details, long on sticking to the same strategy. Interesting bits include focus on developing countries' right to emerging tech for development + risk reduction with Chinese characteristics. https://t.co/3XulDOa6Io

[Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞) @teortaxesTex]

I view the concept of "ghost towns" as one of the most embarrassing Western inventions of this century, an admission of civilizational inferiority. "oh you build infrastructure first and THEN people move in? Bold, heh… no, REAL cities start as shantytowns, u dumb commie"

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

Their absence of self-awareness is a serious pathology. They just killed 3k civilians (really, civilians) and are complaining that their invading soldiers are facing some risks WHILE INVADING.

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

"Imperfect but basically effective." Did Biden rejoin the JCPOA when you were APNSA? I must have missed that. The wet-fingered triangulation routine is part of how we got here—you don't defend an effective, successful agreement by constantly damning it with faint praise.

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

@AngelicaOung @NickKristof It's still generally counterproductive to kick out journos like this, even if NYT China coverage can sometimes be a bit sensationalist it's not like it's going to get any better if done from Taipei or Tokyo.

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

@NeysunM The main smoking gun here is supposedly that a law firm in China has a Party cell?

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

@gonglei89 I think Xi being willing to acknowledge that controlled competition is an ok framing for the relationship represents a shift. Like ok, if you insist, but let's at least keep it from getting messy.

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

@JacquelineNDeal Lmao

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

@shetlerjones @Mariusj001 That comment from the Taiwan Affairs Office is from January 2024, so yes. It would be interesting to see how that language has evolved over time, but looks like the two have been tied together for a while.

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

@shetlerjones @Mariusj001 That's true, but PRC has connected "upholding 92" and "opposing independence" as preconditions for engagement for quite a while, so I don't really see how this is a dramatic shift in their approach. https://t.co/j9zmOhADvd

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

@shetlerjones @Mariusj001 It has to be One China (PRC or ROC), no Taiwan. The issue from Beijing's side is Taiwan as an entity independent of "China," whether that China is ROC or PRC, thus opposing independence.

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

Oh man.

[Heptish @HeptishHotik]

@nise_yoshimi Ah yes, the dude who wrote about how China been lying for centuries about the effect of the opium trade had on their society. We can know that because there is no medical evidence opium is bad for you.

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

@pretentiouswhat I think he's using sources from ten years ago

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

@baoshaoshan @gonglei89 Feels like this has been the trend going back to Covid, but now I feel like govt is trying harder to facilitate it through more school holidays etc.

[Kaiser Kuo @KaiserKuo]

Some takeaways from the Beijing summit, now that Trump is back on Air Force One. Short version: this was a stability-preservation exercise, both sides knew it, both sides got what they came for, and yeah I call that win-win. 🧵

[Murtaza Hussain @MazMHussain]

NYT reporting on classified U.S. intelligence assessments of Iranian missile capacity reiterates that they maintained 70% of their missiles and launchers but adds that 90% of their underground storage and launch facilities are also still active.

Iran had designed is missile program with the acknowledgement of not being able to protect its airspace and relied on hardened underground "missile cities" to compensate. U.S. and Israeli attacks apparently disabled the entrances to some of these facilities and hit surface buildings. But as many observed at the time the attacks were failing to actually penetrate the underground facilities where the operations were carried out and missiles kept in storage. Most problematically for a renewed campaign the missile complexes near Hormuz are almost all still active according to the assessment.

If the U.S. intel assessment is accurate it also explains why Iran was able to maintain a steady rate of missile fire until the end of the war, and also suggests that the U.S. and Israel simply wasted a lot of top-tier standoff munitions firing at rock complexes that it failed to penetrate.

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

@gonglei89 (i.e. the majority of Americans)

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

@gonglei89 Majority of people you pose this too would say "yes." Also, the hukou is in many ways obsolete if you've got enough dough (学区房 etc.)

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

@AngelicaOung On top of it all, "liberalism" does not refer to what "libs" believe in.

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

Top 10 Realism Moments

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Prof. John Mearsheimer:

If I was the national security adviser to Xi Jinping… I should tell Xi Jinping that he should try to be a regional hegemon.

China should try to push the United States out beyond the first island chain and then out beyond the second island chain.

If we have a Monroe doctrine, they should have a Monroe doctrine.

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

[Robert Rust @ucsrr]

@NicoleGrajewski @dex_eve @ArmsControlWonk It's still an assumption that the arsenal growth means a change in doctrine. And there were in fact Chinese experts warning that China's arsenal may grow, even as early as Bush's withdrawal from the ABM.