UK Nowcasts

#GE29 Nowcasts every other week

Nowcast model is a work in progress

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

#LE26 Results

➡️REF - 1453 Seats (+1451)
🌹LAB - 1055 Seats (-1464)
🔶LDM - 844 Seats (+155)
🌳CON - 801 Seats (-563)
🌍GRE - 555 Seats (+409)

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

#LE26 Final Projection

➡️REF - 1497 (+1428)
🌹LAB - 1100 (-1203)
🔸LDM - 840 (+133)
🌳CON - 653 (-577)
🌍 GRE - 652 (+468)

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 BREAKING: Andy Burnham has won the Makerfield by-election

🔴 LAB: 24,937 (+6,725) - 54.8%
➡️ REF: 15,696 (+2,893) - 34.5%
🟣 RES: 3,111 (NEW) - 6.8%
🔵 CON: 997 (-3,382) - 2.2%
🟢 GRN: 308 (-1,468) - 0.7%
🔶 LD: 163 (-2,572) - 0.4%

Changes w/ 2024
58.75% turnout

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

#Makerfield By election Final Prediction:

🌹LAB - 47.7%
➡️RFM - 38.7%
🇬🇧RES - 7.7%
🌍GRE - 2.4%
🌳CON - 2%
🔸LDM - 1%
⚪️OTH - 1%

LAB Hold

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

@simonyoung68 @ElectionMapsUK @Moreincommon_ This is mine, not including the More in Common, but there’s been polls with Greens at 17% and now at 9 here. Weird time rn

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

@ElectionMapsUK How do you get restore figures

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

My nowcast model is nearly complete, just need to finish tactical voting and we're basically all set. This is a test run of my new model :)

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

#GE29 Nowcast for London

🌹LAB - 31 Seats (-28), 24.9%
🌍GRE - 16 Seats (+16), 20.2%
🌳CON - 14 Seats (+5), 19.1%
➡️REF - 6 Seats (+6), 17.4%
🔶LDM - 6 Seats (+0), 12.7%
🇬🇧RB - 0 Seats (+0), 1.5%
OTH - 2 Seats (+1), 4.2%

(+/- GE24)

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

Nowcast model is nearly complete!

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

This is the last nowcast before my model is fully complete 🙏

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

Makerfield #GE29 Nowcast

➡️REF - 55.1% (+21.3)
🌹LAB - 21.5% (-23.7)
🌍GRE - 8.9% (+4.5)
🌳CON - 8.1% (-2.8)
🔸LDM - 6.4% (-0.3)

REF gain from LAB

(+/- GE24)

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 BREAKING: Labour MP Josh Simons will resign to trigger a by-election in Makerfield to give Andy Burnham a route back to Parliament

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

This is the last nowcast before my model is fully complete 🙏

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

#GE29 Projection 09/05/26

➡️REF - 281 Seats (+276), 27.4%
🌹LAB - 85 Seats, (-326), 19.3%
🌳CON - 75 Seats (-46), 18.7%
🔶LDM - 75 Seats (+3), 11.8%
🌍GRE - 53 Seats (+49), 15%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿SNP - 48 Seats (+37), 2.7%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿PC - 9 Seats (+5), 1%
🏳️IND - 5 Seats (+0), 4.2%

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

Quietly proud of my predictions. To be within 4 seats of the actual Lib Dem total I'd like to think is quite impressive

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

#LE26 Results

➡️REF - 1453 Seats (+1451)
🌹LAB - 1055 Seats (-1464)
🔶LDM - 844 Seats (+155)
🌳CON - 801 Seats (-563)
🌍GRE - 555 Seats (+409)

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

#LE26 Final Projection

➡️REF - 1497 (+1428)
🌹LAB - 1100 (-1203)
🔸LDM - 840 (+133)
🌳CON - 653 (-577)
🌍 GRE - 652 (+468)

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

#HolyroodElection Result

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿SNP - 58 Seats (-6)
🌹LAB - 17 Seats (-4)
➡️REF - 17 Seats (+17)
🌍GRE - 15 Seats (+6)
🌳CON - 12 Seats (-19)
🔸LDM - 10 Seats (+6)

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

#HolyroodElection Projection

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿SNP - 60 Seats (-4)
➡️Reform - 18 Seats (+18)
🌹Labour - 17 Seats (-5)
🔸Lib Dem - 12 Seats (+8)
🌳Conservative - 11 Seats (-20)
🌍Green - 11 Seats (+4)

(+/- 2021)

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

#SenneddElection Result

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿PC - 43 Seats (+30), 35.4%
➡️REF - 34 Sears (+34), 29.3%
🌹LAB - 9 Seats (-21), 11.1%
🌳CON - 7 Seats (-9), 10.9%
🌍GRE - 2 Seats (+2), 6.8%
🔶LDM - 1 Seat (+0), 4.4%

(+/- 2021)

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

#SeneddElection Projection:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿PC - 35 Seats (+22), 30.9%
➡️REF - 34 Seats (+34), 27.9%
🌹LAB - 12 Seats (-18), 13.5%
🌳CON - 6 Seats (-10), 10.7%
🌍GRE - 6 Seats (+6), 8.6%
🔸LDM - 3 Seats (+2), 5.5%
🏳️OTH - 0 Seats (+0), 2.8%

(+/- 2021)

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

#LE26 Final Projection

➡️REF - 1497 (+1428)
🌹LAB - 1100 (-1203)
🔸LDM - 840 (+133)
🌳CON - 653 (-577)
🌍 GRE - 652 (+468)

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

Regional:

➡️Reform - 17 Seats (+17), 18.9%
🌹Labour - 14 Seats (-6), 16.2%
🌍Green - 11 Seats (+3), 12.9%
🌳Conservative - 8 Seats (-18), 11.9%
🔸Lib Dem - 5 Seats (+1), 9.8%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿SNP - 1 Seat (-2), 27.7%

(+/- 2021)

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

#HolyroodElection Projection

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿SNP - 60 Seats (-4)
➡️Reform - 18 Seats (+18)
🌹Labour - 17 Seats (-5)
🔸Lib Dem - 12 Seats (+8)
🌳Conservative - 11 Seats (-20)
🌍Green - 11 Seats (+4)

(+/- 2021)

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

Constituency:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿SNP - 59 Seats (-3), 36.2%
🔸Lib Dem - 7 Seats (+3), 11%
🌹Labour - 3 Seats (+1), 18.8%
🌳Conservative - 3 Seats (-2), 12.2%
➡️Reform - 1 Seats (+1), 18.4%
🌍Green - 0 Seats (+0), 1.6%

(+/- 2021)

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

Plaid would end 14 seats short

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

#SeneddElection Projection:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿PC - 35 Seats (+22), 30.9%
➡️REF - 34 Seats (+34), 27.9%
🌹LAB - 12 Seats (-18), 13.5%
🌳CON - 6 Seats (-10), 10.7%
🌍GRE - 6 Seats (+6), 8.6%
🔸LDM - 3 Seats (+2), 5.5%
🏳️OTH - 0 Seats (+0), 2.8%

(+/- 2021)

[UK Nowcasts @uknowcast]

First Minister of Wales, Eulned Morgan, loses her seat.

Welsh Green leader, Anthony Slaughter, gains his seat.

Reform Wales leader, Dan Thomas, gains his seat.