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UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
#GE29
Nowcasts every other week Nowcast model is a work in progress
Joined February 2026
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Following
5
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64
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UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
#LE26
Results ➡️REF - 1453 Seats (+1451) 🌹LAB - 1055 Seats (-1464) 🔶LDM - 844 Seats (+155) 🌳CON - 801 Seats (-563) 🌍GRE - 555 Seats (+409)
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
#LE26
Final Projection ➡️REF - 1497 (+1428) 🌹LAB - 1100 (-1203) 🔸LDM - 840 (+133) 🌳CON - 653 (-577) 🌍 GRE - 652 (+468)
uknowcast
retweeted
Politics UK
@PolitlcsUK
7 days ago
🚨 BREAKING: Andy Burnham has won the Makerfield by-election 🔴 LAB: 24,937 (+6,725) - 54.8% ➡️ REF: 15,696 (+2,893) - 34.5% 🟣 RES: 3,111 (NEW) - 6.8% 🔵 CON: 997 (-3,382) - 2.2% 🟢 GRN: 308 (-1,468) - 0.7% 🔶 LD: 163 (-2,572) - 0.4% Changes w/ 2024 58.75% turnout
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
9 days ago
#Makerfield
By election Final Prediction: 🌹LAB - 47.7% ➡️RFM - 38.7% 🇬🇧RES - 7.7% 🌍GRE - 2.4% 🌳CON - 2% 🔸LDM - 1% ⚪️OTH - 1% LAB Hold
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
9 days ago
@simonyoung68
@ElectionMapsUK
@Moreincommon_
This is mine, not including the More in Common, but there’s been polls with Greens at 17% and now at 9 here. Weird time rn
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
19 days ago
@ElectionMapsUK
How do you get restore figures
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
28 days ago
My nowcast model is nearly complete, just need to finish tactical voting and we're basically all set. This is a test run of my new model :)
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
28 days ago
#GE29
Nowcast for London 🌹LAB - 31 Seats (-28), 24.9% 🌍GRE - 16 Seats (+16), 20.2% 🌳CON - 14 Seats (+5), 19.1% ➡️REF - 6 Seats (+6), 17.4% 🔶LDM - 6 Seats (+0), 12.7% 🇬🇧RB - 0 Seats (+0), 1.5% OTH - 2 Seats (+1), 4.2% (+/- GE24)
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 1 month ago
Nowcast model is nearly complete!
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
This is the last nowcast before my model is fully complete 🙏
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 1 month ago
Makerfield
#GE29
Nowcast ➡️REF - 55.1% (+21.3) 🌹LAB - 21.5% (-23.7) 🌍GRE - 8.9% (+4.5) 🌳CON - 8.1% (-2.8) 🔸LDM - 6.4% (-0.3) REF gain from LAB (+/- GE24)
Politics UK
@PolitlcsUK
about 1 month ago
🚨 BREAKING: Labour MP Josh Simons will resign to trigger a by-election in Makerfield to give Andy Burnham a route back to Parliament
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
This is the last nowcast before my model is fully complete 🙏
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
#GE29
Projection 09/05/26 ➡️REF - 281 Seats (+276), 27.4% 🌹LAB - 85 Seats, (-326), 19.3% 🌳CON - 75 Seats (-46), 18.7% 🔶LDM - 75 Seats (+3), 11.8% 🌍GRE - 53 Seats (+49), 15% 🏴SNP - 48 Seats (+37), 2.7% 🏴PC - 9 Seats (+5), 1% 🏳️IND - 5 Seats (+0), 4.2%
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UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
Quietly proud of my predictions. To be within 4 seats of the actual Lib Dem total I'd like to think is quite impressive
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
#LE26
Results ➡️REF - 1453 Seats (+1451) 🌹LAB - 1055 Seats (-1464) 🔶LDM - 844 Seats (+155) 🌳CON - 801 Seats (-563) 🌍GRE - 555 Seats (+409)
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
#LE26
Final Projection ➡️REF - 1497 (+1428) 🌹LAB - 1100 (-1203) 🔸LDM - 840 (+133) 🌳CON - 653 (-577) 🌍 GRE - 652 (+468)
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
#HolyroodElection
Result 🏴SNP - 58 Seats (-6) 🌹LAB - 17 Seats (-4) ➡️REF - 17 Seats (+17) 🌍GRE - 15 Seats (+6) 🌳CON - 12 Seats (-19) 🔸LDM - 10 Seats (+6)
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
#HolyroodElection
Projection 🏴SNP - 60 Seats (-4) ➡️Reform - 18 Seats (+18) 🌹Labour - 17 Seats (-5) 🔸Lib Dem - 12 Seats (+8) 🌳Conservative - 11 Seats (-20) 🌍Green - 11 Seats (+4) (+/- 2021)
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
#SenneddElection
Result 🏴PC - 43 Seats (+30), 35.4% ➡️REF - 34 Sears (+34), 29.3% 🌹LAB - 9 Seats (-21), 11.1% 🌳CON - 7 Seats (-9), 10.9% 🌍GRE - 2 Seats (+2), 6.8% 🔶LDM - 1 Seat (+0), 4.4% (+/- 2021)
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
#SeneddElection
Projection: 🏴PC - 35 Seats (+22), 30.9% ➡️REF - 34 Seats (+34), 27.9% 🌹LAB - 12 Seats (-18), 13.5% 🌳CON - 6 Seats (-10), 10.7% 🌍GRE - 6 Seats (+6), 8.6% 🔸LDM - 3 Seats (+2), 5.5% 🏳️OTH - 0 Seats (+0), 2.8% (+/- 2021)
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
#LE26
Final Projection ➡️REF - 1497 (+1428) 🌹LAB - 1100 (-1203) 🔸LDM - 840 (+133) 🌳CON - 653 (-577) 🌍 GRE - 652 (+468)
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
Regional: ➡️Reform - 17 Seats (+17), 18.9% 🌹Labour - 14 Seats (-6), 16.2% 🌍Green - 11 Seats (+3), 12.9% 🌳Conservative - 8 Seats (-18), 11.9% 🔸Lib Dem - 5 Seats (+1), 9.8% 🏴SNP - 1 Seat (-2), 27.7% (+/- 2021)
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
#HolyroodElection
Projection 🏴SNP - 60 Seats (-4) ➡️Reform - 18 Seats (+18) 🌹Labour - 17 Seats (-5) 🔸Lib Dem - 12 Seats (+8) 🌳Conservative - 11 Seats (-20) 🌍Green - 11 Seats (+4) (+/- 2021)
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
Constituency: 🏴SNP - 59 Seats (-3), 36.2% 🔸Lib Dem - 7 Seats (+3), 11% 🌹Labour - 3 Seats (+1), 18.8% 🌳Conservative - 3 Seats (-2), 12.2% ➡️Reform - 1 Seats (+1), 18.4% 🌍Green - 0 Seats (+0), 1.6% (+/- 2021)
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
Plaid would end 14 seats short
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
#SeneddElection
Projection: 🏴PC - 35 Seats (+22), 30.9% ➡️REF - 34 Seats (+34), 27.9% 🌹LAB - 12 Seats (-18), 13.5% 🌳CON - 6 Seats (-10), 10.7% 🌍GRE - 6 Seats (+6), 8.6% 🔸LDM - 3 Seats (+2), 5.5% 🏳️OTH - 0 Seats (+0), 2.8% (+/- 2021)
UK Nowcasts
@uknowcast
about 2 months ago
First Minister of Wales, Eulned Morgan, loses her seat. Welsh Green leader, Anthony Slaughter, gains his seat. Reform Wales leader, Dan Thomas, gains his seat.
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