Gabriel Umaña Gomez

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

Last week I posted a new paper with Patrick Norrick: “Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World.”

We chose the title deliberately. No society in history has experienced the fertility levels now seen in South Korea, China, Thailand, Colombia, Chile, and many other countries. Our knowledge of the causes (and of the economic consequences) remains far more limited than most public discussion acknowledges. Much of what we write is, at best, educated conjecture.

The paper also struggles against a space limit. We wrote 20,000 words, far from the 250,000 or so we would need to address some issues in more detail (if I had the time and resources to hide away for a year, I could do that, but not now). That means some ideas are only sketched.

Nonetheless, we emphasize several important points.

First, fertility has fallen very fast everywhere: rich and poor countries, east and west, north and south, conservative and liberal societies, religious and non-religious societies (with the exception of the Jewish population of Israel; fertility has also collapsed among the Muslim population within the pre-1967 borders), you name it. Even in sub-Saharan Africa we see fast and unprecedented drops in fertility (alas, from a high initial level).

Second, and this is really interesting, the fertility collapse has been concentrated in poor and lower-middle-income countries much more than in rich countries. By now, income per capita and fertility are positively correlated within OECD countries. We conjecture this will hold globally in a few decades.

Third, and related to the second point, the fertility collapse has been concentrated among poor and lower-middle-income women within countries. In countries such as the U.S., the rich and highly educated now have more children than the poor and less educated.

Fourth, we document why we do not understand the data from the U.N. World Population Prospects. See, for example, Tables A.1 and A.2.

Fifth, we explain why some proposed mechanisms struggle when confronted with the data.

A more subtle point is at work here. Many commentators do not seem to understand the difference between proximate causes and ultimate causes. Yes, births might have gone down because fewer women are in long-run relationships. That is the proximate cause. But you need to explain why fewer women are in long-run relationships (the ultimate cause), and saying that they spend more years in school, to take one example, does not get us very far. Why do they spend more years in school? Once you start down the whole chain of reasoning, things become much harder than they seem.

The paper can be found here:

https://t.co/VrCHr0lBPa

Comments always welcome!

[Gabriel Umaña Gomez @umana236]

@nicolassm94 @ruidiaz_ddhh Gracias faryd

[Gabriel Umaña Gomez @umana236]

@danielamercadom Qué otra opción propones? Porque parques eólicos parecen imposible en Colombia

[Gabriel Umaña Gomez @umana236]

@gneccoe Buena mr chip

[Gabriel Umaña Gomez @umana236]

@ddbilbao Yo!

[Gabriel Umaña Gomez @umana236]

@CesarMorenoH @gneccoe

[Douglas A. Boneparth @dougboneparth]

A recession, but it identifies as a bull market.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Exxon is rated top ten best in world for environment, social & governance (ESG) by S&P 500, while Tesla didn’t make the list!

ESG is a scam. It has been weaponized by phony social justice warriors.

[Jorge Restrepo @JorgeARestrepo]

Ayer Gustavo Petro @petrogustavo hizo una serie de afirmaciones en el debate con Gutiérrez y Betancourt que merecen ser desmentidas, pues los otros candidatos no lo hicieron.

[Gabriel Umaña Gomez @umana236]

@freddier Elecciones y tecnología

[Gabriel Umaña Gomez @umana236]

@gneccoe Jeje

[Carlos V. de Roux @CVderoux]

Va un hilo sobre Transmilenio:

1. Es el Distrito, no las empresas operadoras, quien fija el valor del pasaje. Qué porcentaje de éste vaya para las empresas no es lo crucial. Lo importante es que sólo se les remuneren los costos más una utilidad razonable -y así es, en teoría-.

[Gabriel Umaña Gomez @umana236]

@SoyAndresParra @lasillavacia de lejos.... @jpperezburgos

[Gabriel Umaña Gomez @umana236]

@gneccoe @CamiloForero90 @IvanDuque Uds no viven juntos?

[TIME @TIME]

Climate Is Everything: How the pandemic can lead us to a better, greener world https://t.co/AhHEIkksj6

[Gabriel Umaña Gomez @umana236]

@nostrabamus69 @gneccoe

[Gabriel Umaña Gomez @umana236]

@gneccoe QVDO

[Gabriel Umaña Gomez @umana236]

@almostaguasanta @jpperezburgos @am_salazar a lo bien

[Gabriel Umaña Gomez @umana236]

@gneccoe Colocar?

[Gabriel Umaña Gomez @umana236]

@CathyJuvinao @carlosecaicedo @Supersalud @jpperezburgos @lasillaenvivo @am_salazar