Uncut Sits

L/S investor. Public markets ideas, turnaround disasters & underappreciated optionality. Occasionally sharing thoughts to exchange views. Not financial advice.

[Uncut Sits @uncutsits]

BAML releasing today a long repot on $CAN.ln. TP GBp500 (stock trades at GBp270).

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$CAN.ln completes JSE secondary listing as $CNP.sj, required under late-2025 $MCG.sj deal. Shares +40% from March 2026 lows after the 1Q26 results drop. MCG integration now the key story to follow over next 18 months.

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$CAN.LN (€2.5bn mkt cap): media business spinoff of $VIV.FP and majority owned by $BOL.FP. Dropped >20% yesterday post results. Markets do not believe in the recent $MCG.SJ acquisition integration story and the stock trades at <7x EV/EBITA. Equity could be worth 2x by 2028.

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Governance shift matters. CEO Bernard departing. New chairman Rusckowski (ex-Quest, ex-Philips Healthcare) took over Jun 2025. New CEO expected H2 2026. Board more open to strategic alternatives.

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$QIA.gr $QGEN down ~50% peak-to-trough in 2026. Now Trades <10x EV/EBITDA vs peers at >14x. Years of M&A rumours, most recently Jan 2026 with $A and $DHR cited as suitors.

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M&A target optionality is real but not new. $TMO bid at €43/share in 2020 lapsed. $BIM.fp explored 2021. $BIO interest in 2022. $A and $DHR cited in Jan 2026 as potential suitors, causing stock spike on 20/01.

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“early work reinforces that these assets can deliver materially stronger production than what was achieved in Q1 2026. We will update the market on the outcomes of this review, including key expected output and cost parameters, once a revised operating plan has been finalized.”

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$ASE.v announces that its recently appointed COO will step in as Acting CEO.

https://t.co/a1VwpqtrVs

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CEO change is next. David Anthony retires on May 15. A formal CEO search is underway; Baird may effectively drive the reset meanwhile and actually take over both roles near term.

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@DogeBonkBonker Not really, had to go through third parties to get access. Among the many things they’ll hopefully work to improve IR.

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$ASE.v reported 1Q26 overnight. Bibiani ramp-up supports total production growth (1Q26 run-rate at 240k oz/year), still no guidance, and several arrangements to boost liquidity were discussed. Below a first look at main items.

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@DogeBonkBonker My understanding (from convs with mgmt) is that part of the issue with sulphide treatment plant was also due to voltage instability (power cuts) that sometimes disrupted ops. Seems marginal issue though.

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@Road_Z22 Not quantified in filings. H2 2026 for Cut-1 access; some remediation slips to 2027. No repair timeline disclosed.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Agree that US$100m would be very dilutive, but to keep in mind that doesn’t have to be 100% equity. Might be only debt or a mix of the two.

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@JohnnyP31915 @ulf_huse Debt repayment and dividend announcement of last year are both positive updates. Macro is not supportive at all at this point in time though and will keep on being an overhang unless conflict gets sorted out quickly.

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@JohnnyP31915 @ulf_huse Middle East conflict very bad for cyclical names related to leisure travel. $TUI1.gr has little direct impact (some ops in ME) and more indirect through cancellations across Turkey and Egypt, both important markets. Oil prices will have an impact on consumers disposable income.

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What's missing is the trajectory of production growth at $ASE.v (guidance). Shall we expect a 2Q26 at 60k or more? That will define whether the cash inflows from gold sales will be more than enough to show that additional debt financing can be sustainable.

[Uncut Sits @uncutsits]

Worth keeping in mind that Bibiani was negatively affected by operational constraints recently (equipment availability, wall slip, slow ramp-up in plant recovery). Forward production might therefore improve quickly vs 1Q26.