Ronin

Meme Nerd | Ronin | Finding peace in the trenches.

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

Everyone watches BTC for the next crypto crash.

I’m watching Japan.

The yen carry trade connects BOJ policy to global liquidity. If the yen strengthens and leverage unwinds, crypto could feel it fast.

Here’s why Japan matters. 👀 https://t.co/KXtxwFjfro

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

@Eq233Artemis Real

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

Everyone is asking:

“Is BTC going to $80K?”

Wrong question.

Ask this instead:

Who is buying after the shorts are gone?

ETF flows are strong.
BTC is holding above $75K.
But leverage is already coming back.

If spot demand keeps absorbing the leverage…

that’s when I get really bullish.

— Ronin

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

@MeowItsJohannah Ronin loves helping

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

RONIN'S WEEKLY MARKET MAP 🧭

BTC just had one of its strongest weeks in years.

But here's what actually matters:

Is this the beginning of a new trend...

or just a massive short squeeze?

I went through the data.

Here's what I'm watching this week 🧵

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

@stavo554733 More to come

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

1. BTC STRUCTURE

BTC ran from the mid-$60Ks to nearly $80K in a week.

That's not normal.

The first thing I want to see now:

→ Hold the breakout
→ Build above $75K
→ Attack $80K with real spot volume
If $75K becomes support, the bull case gets much stronger.
If it gets rejected hard, don't chase.

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

2. ETF FLOWS

This is one of the strongest parts of the move.

U.S. spot BTC ETFs pulled roughly $1.6B over four trading days.

That matters.

A rally driven purely by shorts getting liquidated is fragile.

A rally accompanied by sustained spot ETF demand is a different animal.

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

3. LEVERAGE

Here's where I get cautious.

BTC futures OI has climbed back above $55B.

Funding is positive.

Price ↑
OI ↑
Funding ↑
That's great during continuation.
But if leverage keeps stacking while spot demand slows...

the market becomes vulnerable to a nasty flush.

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

4. THE SQUEEZE

More than $4B in BTC shorts were reportedly liquidated since Wednesday.

That tells us something important:

A meaningful part of this rally was forced buying.

That's bullish for momentum.

But don't mistake forced buying for permanent demand.

The next leg needs fresh buyers.

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

5. MACRO

The bigger picture is also helping risk assets.

Treasury buybacks pushed long-term yields lower.

The dollar weakened.

Crypto responded immediately.

This is why I keep saying:

Don't watch BTC in isolation.

Liquidity → bonds → dollar → BTC.

The chain matters.

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

6. THIS WEEK'S BULL CASE 🟢

BTC holds $75K.

ETF inflows remain positive.

Spot volume expands.

Leverage doesn't get excessively crowded.

ETH/BTC starts catching up.

If those line up...

$80K may become a launchpad rather than resistance.

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

7. BEAR CASE 🔴

BTC rejects $80K.

ETF inflows fade.

OI keeps climbing.

Funding gets overheated.

Price starts falling while leverage remains elevated.

That's when I'd expect the market to punish late longs.

I would rather miss 5% of the move than get caught in a 20% flush.

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

RONIN'S TAKE

I'm bullish.

But I'm not married to the thesis.

The market has given us:

✓ Strong price expansion
✓ ETF demand
✓ Improving liquidity
✓ Massive short covering
Now I want confirmation.
$75K hold + $80K breakout + real spot demand = very interesting.
If the data changes, my bias changes.

That's the game.

Happy profits 🫡

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

@RavenCartelog me too

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

RONIN'S WEEKLY MARKET MAP 🧭

BTC just had one of its strongest weeks in years.

But here's what actually matters:

Is this the beginning of a new trend...

or just a massive short squeeze?

I went through the data.

Here's what I'm watching this week 🧵

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

RONIN'S TAKE

I'm bullish.

But I'm not married to the thesis.

The market has given us:

✓ Strong price expansion
✓ ETF demand
✓ Improving liquidity
✓ Massive short covering
Now I want confirmation.
$75K hold + $80K breakout + real spot demand = very interesting.
If the data changes, my bias changes.

That's the game.

Happy profits 🫡

[Ronin @unemployedronin]

7. BEAR CASE 🔴

BTC rejects $80K.

ETF inflows fade.

OI keeps climbing.

Funding gets overheated.

Price starts falling while leverage remains elevated.

That's when I'd expect the market to punish late longs.

I would rather miss 5% of the move than get caught in a 20% flush.