The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen.
Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation).
Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there.
Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI.
As a result,
1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb.
Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more.
2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future).
Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire"
3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed.
Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies.
4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either.
No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from <$150k to >$50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money."
I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here.
Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success".
Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.
X and LinkedIn feeds feel like a washing machine 🏄♂️, where people are spiraling around about the same things and success stories
While seeing AI startups' decks on visual Generative AI makes me feel all the storm they are navigating, trying to see smth through the rain…
None of them knows what will be “the next thing,” so they put everything in their 2026 plan: digital twins, AI influencers (speaking models), agents, while the main secret is to niche into something specific and be good at it
I’m wondering about really good examples of startups built upon the generative models with stable consistent ARR growth (apart from Higgsfield AI)
The story of AI that makes us “no longer needed at our jobs”.
“Intelligent decision, judgment, taste” – it’s already here. I bet not every human has it.
Conclusion: build now to secure your spot in the future (as you may not have one)
The last two AI questions left are the adoption speed and regulations
Seedance 2.0 beta-testers posted very nice videos! 👏🏻
My first thought: I don’t eat at McDonald's. But it’s a good business model; it serves its purpose, it’s definitely makes sense… but I still search for nice places via the Michelin app (highly recommend!).
My second thought: what will the shovels for this gold rush be, and how can we create them?
My third thought: vertical-format drama series market… Billions of dollars, billions of viewers, but it takes to have NO moral to deal with that.
Before selling the shovels, I have to sell my morals first..
Consensus Hong Kong Sentiment: investors are getting their portfolios squished with a significant valuation drop and long vesting-cliffs, so they’re looking for really worthy projects to invest in (not an easy take)
New Projects: getting through tough times and despair, offering discounts = lowering valuations (also a hard find)
Marketʼs take: no more copycats, only the best will survive; the KPI’s switch from community-driving to revenue-based
How it feels: opportunities search during bearish despair sentiment became a real hunt. The most interesting happens in the intersection of tech and crypto
Before I started my full-time MBA, I was busy all the time, but I had the luxury of choosing what and when to do (including location, time of flights, extra activities). Now, combining education with work, I sacrificed my freedom of choice until June 😌🔫
I’m not talking about politics, but still monitoring the sources that gained my trust, and what I feel is a deep, deep sorrow before 2024 and $115 bln … https://t.co/kiqPnn3Xc1
Universe-getting-us-client one-letter mistake: when "Carl Green" wrote me: "you're too expensive", "Carly Green" was super passionate and excited about her project & the opportunity to work together (me too).
I feel blessed to be a female leader who works with female leaders.
Hard to take this statement at face value -- given all the tweets @paddycosgrave has been liking over the last few days. I saved several of them on the attached google doc (so we have a record when the @WebSummit PR team asks him to delete them).
https://t.co/MOvP5bXqLy
My team is making content for the best 🇺🇦 holidays this week! If you think it’s easy, I would say it took us 50-60 hours. I'm not surprised why other studios do not make such type of non-commercial content :)
What unites all Ukrainians? The idea of fighting for our independence. The national idea of freedom was built long ago and continues to root.
Today is the Day of the National Flag of Ukraine and the 546th day of full-scale invasion. We continue to stand for these values, some depicted in this Rubik's cube.
Our values express who we are: from ancient traditions to modern marvels and tech products (like Nova Poshta and Monobank). Folk motifs intertwine with Monobank's innovation, while Prymachenko's artistry dances alongside Kherson watermelons. This is the Easter Egg we prepared for the National Ukraine Flag Day! What elements would you like to add?
#ukrainianflag #деньпрапора #деньпрапораукраїни #standwithukraine #russiaisaterroriststate #3danimation #icondesign #motiongraphic #cinema4d #c4d
Story #1: one month ago, we agreed with the client’s manager to create two animations for X cost (NET30 contract)
30 days later, the manager: “We made a mistake; our budget is X/2 of what we agreed on”
Me reading this message at 8 PM: 🤡🥲