Rule for Fed days: cut your size in half. Volatility doubles, so your risk should shrink. You don't need to catch the whole move. You need to be alive for the next one.
It's officially Fed day.
We expect a "hawkish pause" today.
The Fed will hold interest rates unchanged but lay the groundwork for a December rate hike, bringing total rate hikes in 2026 to +50 basis points.
Why?
Because the US economy is now facing both supply-side and rising demand-side inflationary pressures, while the labor market continues to weaken beneath the surface.
This puts the Fed in an increasingly difficult position: Inflation is demanding tighter monetary policy, while underlying labor market weakness is calling for the opposite.
We expect the Fed to prioritize inflation today, keeping the door open for further tightening in December.
$AMD is about to catch up to $NVDA. It's already up 160% on the year and has room to run. ๐
$AMD is right back near 562, up 5% and pressing into the top of the falling wedge that has capped every bounce since the ATHs. A three-week, 22% flush took it from 653 to the 500 zone, and buyers defended that level hard. A weekly close above 562 breaks the wedge, with $1T MCAP at 612 directly overhead.
Key Catalysts ๐
Meta goes gigawatt-scale: Meta is installing Helios racks for its next frontier models and co-designing a custom MI450 chip with AMD. AMD is putting $1B into Meta's equity offering to lock the partnership in.
Nov 3 earnings: Back in August, AMD guided Q3 to $13B, up 41% year over year. Stifel expects a beat-and-raise on server CPU demand, with first MI450 revenue showing up in the Q4 guide.
Helios goes live: OpenAI brings Helios online this quarter, and Anthropic's 2GW deployment starts in the first half of 2027. Management pegs revenue per gigawatt in the double-digit billions.
562 is the pivot. Hold it on a weekly close and 612 is next, along with the $1T MCAP mark. Clear 612 and 653 is the last level before new ATHs. Reject 562 again and bears can retest the 500 zone. Lose that and 462 is the backtest.
Trade Ideas ๐
$AMD over 562
Day Trade: AMD 11/02 600C
Swing Trade: AMD 11/20 650C
The hardest part of trading is usually the waiting. It took $AMD a month to get back to 562. Getting back to ATHs could take half that long
TRADE PLAN for FOMC Wednesday ๐
All eyes on FOMC/ Warsh tomorrow.
The first move at 11am PST is never the real move. Wait for Warsh to start answering questions at the presser at 11:30am PST. If SPX continues to hold above 7700 and $QQQ hold above 715 after FOMC.. We can see the market continue to rip higher into the weekend. SPX to 7800 and QQQ to 734 possible.
We're finally seeing chip and memory stocks lead the market back higher as well. $AMD touched 501 last Friday and bounced to 560+ today. AMD to 600 in play in November. $SMH also dropped near 517 last week and moved near 560.
$TSLA through 414 can run to 420 and up to 434 next. It's been a while since we've seen TSLA above 400. $NBIS should've sold off after Elon's comments but instead it was bought up too.
Lots of bullish action with negative news hitting the wire the past week...
Time to buy the dip... ๐ซก
TRADE PLAN for Oct 27th ๐
FOMC coming up tomorrow then tech earnings with $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN as well... $SPX gapping up today along with $QQQ. SPX will gap into the 7700 resistance, it rejected there yesterday. $QQQ if it gets through 715 it can move back up to 722 after FOMC. The market may be trying to carve out a bottom with SPX above 7620 and $QQQ above 707 I would start to lean more bullish if it holds through Friday.
$AMD up 9 points this morning and up almost 40 from last week's lows. lets see if it can run to 550+ next, $SMH also looks bottomed above 525... if it runs again this week 570 in play, $MU and $SNDK winding up for a move higher too. $SNDK has earnings on Thursday and its trended lower for 5 weeks straight.. SNDK to 1500 possible if there's a positive reaction to earnings.
Good luck and be patient until AFTER FOMC. ๐ซก
$QQQ Trade Idea: Oct 28 695P
Trigger: under 700 โ
Targets: 695, 693 ๐ฏ
Stop: 705 ๐
$QQQ had a very volatile week.
It moved from 707 on October 16th to 727, then back down to 701 by Friday.
If QQQ gives up 700 this week after Tech earnings and FOMC, it can drop to 693, 685 next.
Puts can work under 700.
If QQQ gives up 685, it can drop to 661.
The setup I'm watching.
Options carry risk of loss. Not financial advice.
$QQQ WEEKLY FORECAST:
Monday: Green dead cat bounce
Tuesday: Chop/small green
Wednesday: BIG RED
Thursday: More red
Friday: Green SHRECK bounce
I see it as a certainty NQ tests its daily bearish FVG at 29,320ish (about 710 QQQ). I also could see us getting to the midpoint range of the gap on NQ at 29520 (about 715/718 QQQ)
There are many ways this week can go so I am NOT married to this forecast. I will not be swing trading much, day trade type of week for me. VERY key levels on both sides and a high VIX
Will send updates throughout the week and new expected paths if I get early week wrong! ALWAYS trade the chart in front of you.