Carlos Avendaño

Skin in the game. Moneyballin'. Notes to self

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

"How about investors who drift into calling bubbles? If you want to profit from bubbles imploding, you must identify when the focus of an asset moves from its extrinsic to its intrinsic. From our framework, it’s clear that it is a question of liquidity."

—@KrisAbdelmessih

[Birth Gauge @BirthGauge]

With a population decline of 3.2% in 2025 alone, Cuba is for sure the fastest shrinking country on Earth right now. The population collapse is especially pronounced in the capital of Havana, which lost 4.4% of its population in a single year and has almost three times as many deaths as births.

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

what an absolute gem of a chart

sell tails for a living until Bernoulli comes at you with a vengeance

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

après le déluge, moi

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

My philosophy when I used to hire traders was that the optimal number of past blow ups was one.

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

two paths into the wild:

build a long, quiet life of craftsmanship like Richard Proenneke, or risk it all like Chris McCandless, claimed by a single, unforgiving mistake

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

source: https://t.co/42mnWArwgK

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

this @ttunguz's chart is the micro-level mechanism behind @ckaiwu's macro thesis:

operating discipline today is what produces the "AI adopter" earnings surprise tomorrow

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

"Human values are valuable precisely because they are human."

—Sam Altman

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

Nick Sleep's robustness ratio is a fragility detector. It asks one question: who is subsidizing whom?

cc @htaneja, @pranavsinghvi

https://t.co/9FSL9KC3PH

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

"Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end."

—Benoit Mandelbrot

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

know thyself

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

"How about investors who drift into calling bubbles? If you want to profit from bubbles imploding, you must identify when the focus of an asset moves from its extrinsic to its intrinsic. From our framework, it’s clear that it is a question of liquidity."

—@KrisAbdelmessih

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

turned the original post into a pre-trade interrogation layer (aka Claude skill): https://t.co/KyuMPGRXt3

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

Bai Xiaosheng (白小生)

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

@steveclapham great post, Steve

you might like this one: https://t.co/QrZvH7tFYW

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

felt 100% the same when reading Smith's letter

René not only felt it, but explained it superbly

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

@ReneSellmann it reads like a spot-on logbook entry for anyone trying to learn vicariously

the Great Humbler (aka Mr Market) hasn’t just stirred him, but shaken him to the core

Imo, he still has a chance to steer his ship back on track. F* AUM, f* performance… survival and legacy first

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

felt 100% the same when reading Smith's letter

René not only felt it, but explained it superbly

[Rene Sellmann @ReneSellmann]

https://t.co/k64MW5miuk

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

source: https://t.co/D2olL9KceV

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

"if the single stock vol is high vs the index vol, that’s another way to say the realized correlation btw the stocks is very low. The index is dampening vol because it’s acting well-diversified. A so-called stock-pickers market."

—@KrisAbdelmessih

[Agustin Lebron @AgustinLebron3]

The problem with enterprises trying to protect their IP from model providers is that half of them probably have no clue what their IP even is.

[Carlos Avendaño @Untiroalaire]

Jason Wei's Verifier rule:

the ease of training AI to solve a task is proportional to how verifiable the task is. All tasks that are possible to solve and easy to verify will be solved by AI

https://t.co/cM3HYTy2pY