I don't think it has much lower to go. People that only study charts miss some key, unique aspects of Bitcoin. For instance, it is now under the average cost of production. The average cost of production is over 4x than 200 weeks ago. Commodities don't spend much time under the cost of production.
Every day there is some reason for not buying Bitcoin.
“Silver is performing better.”
“Trump will lose the Supreme Court decision on tariffs.”
“The stock market is about to crash and take Bitcoin with it.”
“Quantum computers will destroy Bitcoin.”
“The four-year cycle says this is the wrong time.”
Then it keeps going.
“Rates will stay higher for longer.”
“The Fed is about to rug risk assets.”
“ETFs are already priced in.”
“Miners are going to capitulate.”
“Whales are about to dump.”
“It’s gone up too much already.”
“It hasn’t gone down enough yet.”
“There will be a better entry.”
“I’ll wait for confirmation.”
And when price goes down:
“See, I told you.”
“This is just the beginning.”
“Liquidity is drying up.”
“Global war risk.”
“Another exchange will blow up.”
When price goes up:
“I missed it.”
“I’ll wait for the pullback.”
“It’s overheated.”
“Alt season comes first.”
“Gold is safer in a recession.”
Then come the structural fears.
“Governments will ban it.”
“They’ll tax it to death.”
“Self-custody is too complicated.”
“Custodians can’t be trusted.”
“Energy FUD is coming back.”
“AI is the real trade now.”
And the timeless classics.
“It’s different this time.”
“It’s too early.”
“It’s too late.”
“It’s not my time.”
“I’ll buy next cycle.”
There is always a reason.
There is never a clean window.
The narrative noise never shuts off.
Bitcoin does not move when everyone agrees.
It moves while people are busy explaining why they’re waiting.
@LawrenceLepard "But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against 'real' goods.