Olivia
Online
Upside
@Upside_Capital
Daily insights into AI | Stocks | Forex 📈📊
Joined January 2026
435 Following
519 Followers
1.7K Posts
Pinned Tweet
Let's ground this in reality before the timeline panics. 📝📉
Buffett holding a massive cash pile isn't an apocalyptic doomsday prediction—it simply means he can't find businesses at attractive valuations right now. He's a legendary value investor; if the market isn't offering a good deal, he sits on his hands (and happily collects a massive yield on short-term Treasuries in the meantime). 💵
Also, he definitely didn't say the US Dollar is "collapsing." His golden rule for decades has been to **never bet against America**. He isn't confused by the market either; he just strictly stays within his circle of competence and refuses to buy into overhyped, speculative sectors. 🦅🇺🇸
He is absolutely right about the market acting like a casino lately, but don't let engagement-bait doomposting scare you into panic-selling your portfolio. Deep breaths, folks. 🧘♂️📊
BREAKING: Iran's top joint military command announces that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed due to US and Israeli "violations" of the Memorandum of Understanding.
Iran says this is the "first step" and warns that further measures will be imposed if the "aggression continues."
Iran just announced that the Strait of Hormuz is CLOSED again.
What this basically means in plain terms:
Hormuz closure = oil shock.
Oil shock = inflation shock.
Inflation shock = rate cut expectations delayed.
Delayed cuts = pressure on equities.
BREAKING: Iran's top joint military command officially releases a statement closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Full statement:
NEW: Chinese AI models have officially overtaken U.S. models in global usage.
@SenWarren https://t.co/rCM6lnfe1k
Elon Musk FAILs and LIES a lot.
Full Self Driving timelines.
Robotaxi launch dates.
Mars colonization deadlines.
Hyperloop.
Production forecasts.
The list is long, and his critics are right to point that out.
But focusing only on the misses ignores the much bigger lesson.
The reason Musk became the richest man in the world isn’t because he’s unusually accurate.
It’s because he’s willing to make an extraordinary number of bold predictions in areas where nobody knows the answer.
Most people operate in environments where the future is relatively predictable.
A restaurant owner can estimate next month’s sales.
A bank can forecast loan repayments.
An accountant can estimate tax liabilities.
But when you’re trying to build reusable rockets, autonomous vehicles, brain-computer interfaces, or a multiplanetary civilization, there is no spreadsheet that gives you the answer.
You’re operating at the edge of human knowledge.
The further you push into the unknown, the more often you’ll be wrong.
That’s not a flaw in the process.
That’s the process.
Most people optimize for looking smart.
They avoid making concrete predictions.
They speak in probabilities, caveats, and carefully worded statements.
If they’re wrong, nobody notices.
If they’re right, they take credit.
Musk does the opposite.
He makes specific, measurable predictions in public.
Everyone knows when he misses.
Nobody can hide the scorecard.
The result is that he accumulates a very visible list of failures.
But he also accumulates something far more valuable: attempts.
And attempts are what generate breakthroughs.
SpaceX was supposed to fail.
Tesla was supposed to fail.
Reusable rockets were supposed to be uneconomical.
Electric vehicles were supposed to be niche products.
Private companies were not supposed to dominate space launch.
Yet despite being wrong on countless timelines, he was directionally right on some of the most important technological trends of the last two decades.
That’s the part many people miss.
The world’s biggest fortunes are rarely built by people with perfect prediction records.
They’re built by people who repeatedly place asymmetric bets.
They can be wrong 8 times out of 10 and still come out ahead if the 2 wins are large enough.
In venture capital, a single investment can return an entire fund.
In entrepreneurship, a single company can outweigh dozens of failed projects.
In innovation, one breakthrough can erase years of mistakes.
The mistake is assuming that being frequently wrong and being successful are opposites.
In frontier industries, they’re often connected.
If you’re never wrong, there’s a good chance you’re not attempting anything ambitious enough.
The people trying to change the future don’t have the luxury of waiting until they’re certain.
They have to make bets before the evidence exists.
And from the outside, that often looks like being wrong.
Until it doesn’t.
@elonmusk https://t.co/rCM6lnfe1k
Elon Musk FAILs and LIES a lot.
Full Self Driving timelines.
Robotaxi launch dates.
Mars colonization deadlines.
Hyperloop.
Production forecasts.
The list is long, and his critics are right to point that out.
But focusing only on the misses ignores the much bigger lesson.
The reason Musk became the richest man in the world isn’t because he’s unusually accurate.
It’s because he’s willing to make an extraordinary number of bold predictions in areas where nobody knows the answer.
Most people operate in environments where the future is relatively predictable.
A restaurant owner can estimate next month’s sales.
A bank can forecast loan repayments.
An accountant can estimate tax liabilities.
But when you’re trying to build reusable rockets, autonomous vehicles, brain-computer interfaces, or a multiplanetary civilization, there is no spreadsheet that gives you the answer.
You’re operating at the edge of human knowledge.
The further you push into the unknown, the more often you’ll be wrong.
That’s not a flaw in the process.
That’s the process.
Most people optimize for looking smart.
They avoid making concrete predictions.
They speak in probabilities, caveats, and carefully worded statements.
If they’re wrong, nobody notices.
If they’re right, they take credit.
Musk does the opposite.
He makes specific, measurable predictions in public.
Everyone knows when he misses.
Nobody can hide the scorecard.
The result is that he accumulates a very visible list of failures.
But he also accumulates something far more valuable: attempts.
And attempts are what generate breakthroughs.
SpaceX was supposed to fail.
Tesla was supposed to fail.
Reusable rockets were supposed to be uneconomical.
Electric vehicles were supposed to be niche products.
Private companies were not supposed to dominate space launch.
Yet despite being wrong on countless timelines, he was directionally right on some of the most important technological trends of the last two decades.
That’s the part many people miss.
The world’s biggest fortunes are rarely built by people with perfect prediction records.
They’re built by people who repeatedly place asymmetric bets.
They can be wrong 8 times out of 10 and still come out ahead if the 2 wins are large enough.
In venture capital, a single investment can return an entire fund.
In entrepreneurship, a single company can outweigh dozens of failed projects.
In innovation, one breakthrough can erase years of mistakes.
The mistake is assuming that being frequently wrong and being successful are opposites.
In frontier industries, they’re often connected.
If you’re never wrong, there’s a good chance you’re not attempting anything ambitious enough.
The people trying to change the future don’t have the luxury of waiting until they’re certain.
They have to make bets before the evidence exists.
And from the outside, that often looks like being wrong.
Until it doesn’t.
@elonmusk https://t.co/rCM6lnfe1k
Elon Musk FAILs and LIES a lot.
Full Self Driving timelines.
Robotaxi launch dates.
Mars colonization deadlines.
Hyperloop.
Production forecasts.
The list is long, and his critics are right to point that out.
But focusing only on the misses ignores the much bigger lesson.
The reason Musk became the richest man in the world isn’t because he’s unusually accurate.
It’s because he’s willing to make an extraordinary number of bold predictions in areas where nobody knows the answer.
Most people operate in environments where the future is relatively predictable.
A restaurant owner can estimate next month’s sales.
A bank can forecast loan repayments.
An accountant can estimate tax liabilities.
But when you’re trying to build reusable rockets, autonomous vehicles, brain-computer interfaces, or a multiplanetary civilization, there is no spreadsheet that gives you the answer.
You’re operating at the edge of human knowledge.
The further you push into the unknown, the more often you’ll be wrong.
That’s not a flaw in the process.
That’s the process.
Most people optimize for looking smart.
They avoid making concrete predictions.
They speak in probabilities, caveats, and carefully worded statements.
If they’re wrong, nobody notices.
If they’re right, they take credit.
Musk does the opposite.
He makes specific, measurable predictions in public.
Everyone knows when he misses.
Nobody can hide the scorecard.
The result is that he accumulates a very visible list of failures.
But he also accumulates something far more valuable: attempts.
And attempts are what generate breakthroughs.
SpaceX was supposed to fail.
Tesla was supposed to fail.
Reusable rockets were supposed to be uneconomical.
Electric vehicles were supposed to be niche products.
Private companies were not supposed to dominate space launch.
Yet despite being wrong on countless timelines, he was directionally right on some of the most important technological trends of the last two decades.
That’s the part many people miss.
The world’s biggest fortunes are rarely built by people with perfect prediction records.
They’re built by people who repeatedly place asymmetric bets.
They can be wrong 8 times out of 10 and still come out ahead if the 2 wins are large enough.
In venture capital, a single investment can return an entire fund.
In entrepreneurship, a single company can outweigh dozens of failed projects.
In innovation, one breakthrough can erase years of mistakes.
The mistake is assuming that being frequently wrong and being successful are opposites.
In frontier industries, they’re often connected.
If you’re never wrong, there’s a good chance you’re not attempting anything ambitious enough.
The people trying to change the future don’t have the luxury of waiting until they’re certain.
They have to make bets before the evidence exists.
And from the outside, that often looks like being wrong.
Until it doesn’t.
Elon Musk FAILs and LIES a lot.
Full Self Driving timelines.
Robotaxi launch dates.
Mars colonization deadlines.
Hyperloop.
Production forecasts.
The list is long, and his critics are right to point that out.
But focusing only on the misses ignores the much bigger lesson.
The reason Musk became the richest man in the world isn’t because he’s unusually accurate.
It’s because he’s willing to make an extraordinary number of bold predictions in areas where nobody knows the answer.
Most people operate in environments where the future is relatively predictable.
A restaurant owner can estimate next month’s sales.
A bank can forecast loan repayments.
An accountant can estimate tax liabilities.
But when you’re trying to build reusable rockets, autonomous vehicles, brain-computer interfaces, or a multiplanetary civilization, there is no spreadsheet that gives you the answer.
You’re operating at the edge of human knowledge.
The further you push into the unknown, the more often you’ll be wrong.
That’s not a flaw in the process.
That’s the process.
Most people optimize for looking smart.
They avoid making concrete predictions.
They speak in probabilities, caveats, and carefully worded statements.
If they’re wrong, nobody notices.
If they’re right, they take credit.
Musk does the opposite.
He makes specific, measurable predictions in public.
Everyone knows when he misses.
Nobody can hide the scorecard.
The result is that he accumulates a very visible list of failures.
But he also accumulates something far more valuable: attempts.
And attempts are what generate breakthroughs.
SpaceX was supposed to fail.
Tesla was supposed to fail.
Reusable rockets were supposed to be uneconomical.
Electric vehicles were supposed to be niche products.
Private companies were not supposed to dominate space launch.
Yet despite being wrong on countless timelines, he was directionally right on some of the most important technological trends of the last two decades.
That’s the part many people miss.
The world’s biggest fortunes are rarely built by people with perfect prediction records.
They’re built by people who repeatedly place asymmetric bets.
They can be wrong 8 times out of 10 and still come out ahead if the 2 wins are large enough.
In venture capital, a single investment can return an entire fund.
In entrepreneurship, a single company can outweigh dozens of failed projects.
In innovation, one breakthrough can erase years of mistakes.
The mistake is assuming that being frequently wrong and being successful are opposites.
In frontier industries, they’re often connected.
If you’re never wrong, there’s a good chance you’re not attempting anything ambitious enough.
The people trying to change the future don’t have the luxury of waiting until they’re certain.
They have to make bets before the evidence exists.
And from the outside, that often looks like being wrong.
Until it doesn’t.
JUST IN: 🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israel strikes southern Lebanon as heavy clashes erupt with Hezbollah.
🚨 President Donald J. Trump has SIGNED the Iran Memorandum of Understanding at Versailles in France. 🇺🇸
🇺🇸🇮🇷 US releases full 14-point Iran MoU
Here’s the full summary:
1. Permanent ceasefire: US, Iran & allies immediately & permanently end all military ops (incl. Lebanon).
2. Sovereignty respect: Mutual recognition of sovereignty & territorial integrity; no interference in internal affairs.
3. 60-day final deal timeline: Commit to negotiate & reach a full agreement within 60 days (extendable by mutual consent).
4. Blockade lift: US starts removing naval blockade immediately; complete removal within 30 days.
5. Hormuz safe passage: Iran uses best efforts for toll-free commercial shipping through Strait of Hormuz for 60 days.
6. $300B+ reconstruction: US + regional partners create mutually agreed plan for Iran’s economic development & rebuilding.
7. Sanctions termination: US works to end all sanctions (UN, IAEA, primary & secondary).
8. No nukes pledge: Iran reaffirms it will not develop nuclear weapons; enriched material stockpile addressed under IAEA supervision.
9. Nuclear status quo: Iran maintains current nuclear program level; US imposes no new sanctions or deploys extra forces.
10. Oil waivers: US Treasury issues waivers for Iranian crude, petroleum products, derivatives + related banking/insurance/transport.
11. Asset release: US makes all frozen/restricted Iranian funds & assets fully available.
12. Monitoring mechanism: Joint executive body to oversee MOU implementation & final deal compliance.
13. Negotiations trigger: After key steps (ceasefire, blockade lift, shipping, oil waivers, assets), final deal talks begin.
14. UN backing: Final deal to be endorsed by binding UN Security Council resolution.
🚨BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump and Iranian leadership have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to immediately halt military operations (including in Lebanon), reopen the Strait of Hormuz for shipping, and begin lifting the naval blockade.
Key points from reports:
• 60-day window for deeper talks on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and reconstruction (~$300B pledged via partners).
• Formal signing expected soon (possibly Friday in Switzerland).
• Oil markets are reacting with big implications for energy flows and global stability.
This isn’t a full peace treaty yet, but it’s a critical step away from broader war after months of tension.
Smart money tracks these power shifts closely, de-escalation could stabilize commodities, but watch for implementation risks and what’s still on the table (nuclear details, missiles, etc.).
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 US and Iran officially sign memorandum of understanding to end the war, effective immediately.
@elonmusk Keep up the momentum, solid
@Kalshi No one is able to achieve this level of wealth by earning a mere salary.
Only the owners get rewarded handsomely
@bryan_johnson Bryan every night after meeting Kate
Sam Bankman-Fried right now
In 2023, FTX sold its 5% stake in Cursor for $200k as part of its bankruptcy proceedings.
Today, that stake would be worth over $3,000,000,000 after SpaceX $SPCX acquired the startup for $60 billion.
@Kalshi Absolutely BULLISH on SpaceX
🚨SpaceX just acquired Cursor for $60 billion in an all-stock deal.
Not cash. Equity. Right after their IPO.
Cursor had the best AI coding interface and massive developer distribution. What it lacked was frontier-scale compute to push its next-gen agents without bleeding money to external labs.
SpaceX had the opposite: Colossus-level training infrastructure and the hardest real-world engineering problems on the planet.
This is vertical integration of the AI stack - compute, models, and the human interface that turns ideas into shipped code. Paying with premium post-IPO equity instead of cash is smart capital allocation.
Engineering velocity at SpaceX just accelerated. The AI agent game just got a new player who actually builds physical things at scale.
@KobeissiLetter https://t.co/EZIdKT7AHX
SPX has reclaimed positive gamma, a key shift in market structure.
In a negative gamma regime, dealer hedging flows reinforce directional moves, accelerating volatility and creating air pockets lower.
In positive gamma, those flows reverse. Dealers buy weakness and sell strength, dampening volatility and supporting market stability.
Historically, sustained positive gamma environments are associated with tighter realized volatility, stronger dip-buying behavior, and a higher probability of trend continuation.
The bulls just got an important tailwind.
🚨 JUST IN: SpaceX has surpassed Amazon in valuation.
A rocket company is now worth more than the e-commerce giant that reshaped global retail.
The future is arriving faster than most people realize.
Last Seen Users on Sotwe
banu sov
Seen from Turkey
WANIMAL | Official
Seen from United States
脇愛@ワキガフェチ
Seen from Indonesia
Türbanlı dünyası
Seen from Turkey
abg indo x malay
Seen from Indonesia
Black Boy
Seen from India
Ruruuuuu
Seen from United States
Pecinta janda
Seen from Malaysia
Moms Gone Bad
Seen from Indonesia
|₵Å$H MÅ$T€R_UPDÅT€$ 🇺🇸|40K|
Seen from United States
Most Popular Users
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
240.4M followers
Barack Obama
@barackobama
119.3M followers
Donald J. Trump
@realdonaldtrump
111.6M followers
Cristiano Ronaldo
@cristiano
109.9M followers
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
106.9M followers
Rihanna
@rihanna
97.5M followers
NASA
@nasa
92.1M followers
Justin Bieber
@justinbieber
90.8M followers
KATY PERRY
@katyperry
87.3M followers
Taylor Swift
@taylorswift13
81.1M followers
Lady Gaga
@ladygaga
72.7M followers
Kim Kardashian
@kimkardashian
69.6M followers
Virat Kohli
@imvkohli
69.4M followers
YouTube
@youtube
68.6M followers
Bill Gates
@billgates
63.7M followers
The Ellen Show
@theellenshow
62.5M followers
Neymar Jr
@neymarjr
62M followers
CNN
@cnn
61.9M followers
X
@x
60.9M followers
Selena Gomez
@selenagomez
60.4M followers