Upside-Down Crypto Data

Risk models for #Bitcoin & alts by a cognitive science PhD. Not financial advice. Live model data and more at our site:

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

The headlines don't matter until they do. Certain events can change the direction of markets.

The fed announcement of rate hikes late 2021 was one.

The President starting trade wars and talking about being willing to go into a recession could easily be another.

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

Not a great look for risk assets when the President is embarking on new trade wars and is signaling that he's willing to stomach a recession.

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

#Bitcoin's forecast model is at exactly 50%, meaning it currently sees equal likelihood of upside vs. downside looking forward 6 months.

Feels about right given the massive uncertainty everywhere right now.

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

Seems like a lot of people are saying this is an easy buy the dip opportunity for #Bitcoin. I'm not so sure.

Long-term risk is still well above deep value territory. Add to that the escalating trade wars and I think it's likely we've got more pain coming.

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

@ARiHBARi Slightly below neutral. But in the current context that's not looking super attractive.

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

Extreme events shift how you interpret #Bitcoin risk. Full on bull market with clear skies ahead? A bit below neutral risk is a buy.

Multiple trade wars that risk higher inflation and recession? Not so much.

Unless this all ends quickly I think we see a lot more pain.

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

You know how I kept saying that I think the #Crypto bull market is still on unless something crazy and disastrous happens?

Welp, if these trade wars don't end quickly they sure seem to fit the bill.

[The Gaussian Snek @TheGaussianSnek]

Listen to this guy - he knows what’s up

[Minutemen ₿ @btcminutemen]

#Bitcoin

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

#Bitcoin's long-term risk continues to cool off and the entire timeline is acting like the end is nigh.

Follow the data. Ignore the noise.

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

About to go live with @TheGaussianSnek! Will be a great conversation about #Bitcoin, #Ethereum, Alts, and more!

https://t.co/ZAAECAtA77

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

Looking forward to streaming with @TheGaussianSnek tomorrow (1/26) at 2pm PST/5pm EST! Will be a great conversation about #Bitcoin, #Ethereum and more.

[The Gaussian Snek @TheGaussianSnek]

Reminder that Mark (@upsidedowndata) from Polarity Digital Pro and I will be streaming live tomorrow - Sunday, January 26 at 2:00 PST. We moved the time behind by two hours from the previous announcement, so please take note.

https://t.co/rCK2DqiHqD

[The Gaussian Snek @TheGaussianSnek]

Reminder that Mark (@upsidedowndata) from Polarity Digital Pro and I will be streaming live tomorrow - Sunday, January 26 at 2:00 PST. We moved the time behind by two hours from the previous announcement, so please take note.

https://t.co/rCK2DqiHqD

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

@TokenDumps Someone's salty lol

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

$LINK's long-term risk continues to fall quickly even with this recent bounce in price. Exactly what we want to see.

Patience has been rewarded in the past with #Chainlink. Something tells me it will be again.

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

#Bitcoin's Momentum Bias Indicator (MBI) is bouncing perfectly off of zero. Still very much bull market behavior here.

CT all saying the top is in. The data disagree.

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

@bitcoinmiser Agreed. #Bitcoin never has and never will care about the noise.

[Minutemen ₿ @btcminutemen]

#Bitcoin. Follow the data, not the noise.

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

Here's something wild: $BTC is sitting above $105k and its long-term risk just fell to below neutral.

You absolutely love to see it. #Bitcoin

[Upside-Down Crypto Data @upsidedowndata]

My feed: Arguing endlessly about whether $TRUMP marks the top of the cycle and it's all over for #Bitcoin and #Crypto.

Me: Sitting back and following the data. Our Market Cycle Model is still bullish. I'm still bullish. Simple as that.