USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab

Tracking elections, redistricting and democratic reform through original research and data analysis.

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Here are the Standout Republicans who won statewide while Democrats won at the top of the ticket

Paul Pate (IA SoS): R+6.3 as Sand won by 11.1
Steven Johnson (KS Treasurer): R+6.9 as Hamilton won by 5.0
Frank LaRose (OH Auditor): R+1.6 as Acton won by 7.9

@DecisionDeskHQ

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Cindy Holscher won Kansas by 0.7 points but carried just one of its four congressional districts, KS-03

Adam Hamilton (D+5.0) carried two, adding KS-02 (D+1.9), where Republican Derek Schmidt won the House race

@DecisionDeskHQ

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Ohio’s new congressional map didn’t cost Democrats a seat, rather it made OH-08 more favorable

The 2026 House vote on the old 2022–24 lines have Dems winning the same 8 districts, with OH-01, 07, 09, and 10 being slightly more favorable toward the GOP

@DecisionDeskHQ

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Amy Acton carried 10 of Ohio’s 15 districts, two more than House Democrats won, OH-8 (D+1.1) and OH-14 (D+0.3*), where House Republicans won

Brown carried the same eight House Democrats did, but ran ahead of them in 9 of the 15 districts

@DecisionDeskHQ

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Julia Letlow held Louisiana's Senate seat for Republicans, beating Jamie Davis by 1.8 points (about 25,800 votes) in a state Trump won by 22

Davis carried 2 of 6 districts on the 2024 congressional map, but just 1 of 6 on the new one

@DecisionDeskHQ

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Mississippi elected a Democrat to the Senate for the first time since 1982

Scott Colom beat Cindy Hyde-Smith by 0.5 pts, a 23.4-pt swing from 2024. He's the state's first Black senator since Reconstruction

He outran every House Dem but won 1 of 4 districts

@DecisionDeskHQ

[USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab @uscdfelab]

Saluting our veterans @usc and beyond today! https://t.co/4UayC9Cd2F

[USC Trojans @USC_Athletics]

Happy Veterans Day 🇺🇸

Thank you to all the brave men and women who have served our country ✌️

[USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab @uscdfelab]

Original @USCPolFuture @uscdfelab polling data presented at @hammer_museum. Explains how Democrats won the Prop50 districts, the role of redistricting nationwide, and pitfalls for both the Dem and GOP parties going into the 2028 elections https://t.co/uxLyfUJEBa

[Christian Grose @christiangrose]

What happened in the midterm elections in California? "Donald Trump is super unpopular" and the issues that mattered were fighting Trump, cost of living/economy, and ICE/immigration. I talked about our @USCPolFuture @uscdfelab polls at the @hammer_museum w/ distinguished panelists. Watch the full discussion here-->
https://t.co/L6ukV43jF8

[Christian Grose @christiangrose]

What happened in the midterm elections in California? "Donald Trump is super unpopular" and the issues that mattered were fighting Trump, cost of living/economy, and ICE/immigration. I talked about our @USCPolFuture @uscdfelab polls at the @hammer_museum w/ distinguished panelists. Watch the full discussion here-->
https://t.co/L6ukV43jF8

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

If Dems gain AK and MS, the 2026 Senate elections would be the most seats lost by the GOP since 1986 (If you don’t include pickups, it’s really since 1958!)

Despite this monumental loss, John Thune will remain as Leader of Senate Republicans

Very interesting development

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

In a Democratic wave year, Tina Kotek still ran almost 5 points behind Kamala Harris in OR's Gov race

She won Oregon 53–44, but not one county moved toward her

Biggest drops being in Clackamas (R+9.4), Benton (R+8.4) and Washington (R+7.3)

@DecisionDeskHQ

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Marsha Blackburn won Tennessee by 2.6 points but lost six of its nine congressional districts.

In five of those, voters backed Democrat Jerri Green for governor and a Republican for the House. Hagerty carried all nine in the Senate.

@DecisionDeskHQ

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

The blue wave hit Florida, and Florida managed to hold on

Donalds holds the governorship for the GOP, and Republicans keep both chambers in Tallahassee. But Democrats picked up 16 House seats and broke the supermajority for the first time in years.

@DecisionDeskHQ

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Can Hegseth be impeached?

The House will vote on Rep. Massie’s articles by Wednesday, and its possible

Total removal is a different story. Conviction needs 67 senators, which would mean 20 GOP votes. Even after Democrats take the Senate in January, it would still take 11–13

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Who redistricts next?

Likely: Wisconsin, Maryland and Mississippi, where governors are on record backing new maps and Maryland voters voted to do so

Less likely: Colorado and Virginia (blocked by courts), Minnesota and New Jersey (no clear path yet)

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Democrats just had their best election night in decades, and Senate Dems are already advocating against Chuck Schumer as majority leader

All 5 Democrats who say they won’t back him for majority leader are freshmen elected in the wave. 9 more are wavering and just 3 have said yes

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

The Texas GOP redrew the map to win five more seats. It got one

Democrats held four of five targets: TX-9 (D+15.1), TX-28 (D+37.2), TX-34 (D+15.8), TX-35 (D+10.8). TX-32 flipped red (R+2.9)

Democrats also flipped TX-15 and TX-23, but would’ve won one more seat

@DecisionDeskHQ

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Jon Ossoff won Georgia by 18 points, but carried just 7 of its 14 congressional districts

Bottoms (D+8.6) and House Democrats each carried 5

Ossoff won GA-1 and GA-12, which both elected Republicans, and came within 3 points in GA-7, GA-10 and GA-11

per @DecisionDeskHQ

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

NH split its ticket: Kelly Ayotte held the governorship by about 3 points, while Democrats are on track to flip both chambers

House: 278D-106R, with 14 seats still being counted (was 221R-177D), past a two-thirds supermajority

Senate: 15D-9R (was 16R-8D)

@DecisionDeskHQ

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Arizona goes from a GOP legislature to a Democratic trifecta

Gov: Hobbs wins by 13.1
House: 33R-27D → 37D-23R
Senate: 17R-13D → 20D-10R, right at a two-thirds supermajority if leads hold

per @DecisionDeskHQ