Dept. of Devaluation

Official bureau of diminishing returns. 📉
Tracking how fast the Fed melts your ice cube.
(parody account. Not a real government agency. We just track math)

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@n_bancroft2 I messaged you in private.
Please respond.

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@Peoplewish Nah, keep it with dark charts. Save our eyes.

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@IntlSpeculator Anything that is governed by supply and demand and has a free market.

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@ZynxBTC Or buy $STRC at 72 for a 16.6% yield and a 39% upside if it returns to par.

Also:
1. STRC has a bi weekly payout frequency vs STRD quarterly
2. It is senior to STRD
3. STRC has a variable rate which is supposed to go up till it returns to par.
4. STRC is cumulative.

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@BornInvestor I love goldens!

[QuantifiedStrategies.com @QuantifiedStrat]

A Trend-Following Strategy (18% Annual Returns Since 1926)

A recent research paper, “A Century of Profitable Industry Trends,” by Carlo Zarattini and Gary Antonacci demonstrates that a straightforward trend-following approach applied to industries has produced impressive long-term results.

The system, based on breakout entries, trailing exits, and volatility-adjusted position sizing, generated approximately 18% annualized returns going back to 1926 across 48 industry portfolios, while maintaining strong risk-adjusted performance.

Trading Rules

The strategy detects trends using simple breakout techniques.

A long position is initiated whenever an industry’s closing price rises above the upper boundary of either a Donchian Channel or a Keltner Channel.

The Donchian signal uses the highest price observed during the previous 20 trading days, while the lower band relies on a longer 40-day lookback period.

This asymmetry encourages the system to remain invested during sustained advances.

The Keltner Channel is constructed around a 20-day exponential moving average combined with a volatility buffer equal to 1.4 times the Average True Range, again paired with a 40-day lower band.

The strategy only takes long positions. When no industries display clear upward momentum, capital is allocated to Treasury bills instead of remaining exposed to equities.

Risk management

Risk management is handled through volatility targeting. Each industry position is scaled so that it contributes a similar amount of risk to the overall portfolio.

Allocation weights are therefore inversely proportional to recent 14-day volatility, meaning more volatile industries receive smaller positions.

To keep leverage within realistic limits, total portfolio exposure is capped at 200%.

Exits are governed by a trailing stop mechanism. The stop level is defined as whichever is higher between the lower Donchian band and the lower Keltner band, both calculated using a 40-day lookback.

Importantly, once the stop moves higher, it is never reduced. This allows profitable trends to continue while ensuring losing trades are closed quickly.

Results (Backtest below image)
To read our full article on this strategy, check out our X-post (Feb14-26). I strongly recommend reading the original research paper for a deeper understanding.

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@Peoplewish I guess you're using the previous week, cause the current week is still in the making?

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@saylor How come SATA is already back to par while STRC is still 7% down (and declining today)?

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@TMLitalia Can you elaborate. I'm struggling to get the idea here.

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@RichardMoglen @AmeetRai @Deepvue I'll be honest, I'm a long term user of DeepVue (3 years now) and I'm considering leaving it.

The new charts have weird behavior that I can't get used to (for no reason), and now the old TV charts are working extremely slow.

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@BornInvestor @Substack No difference for me.

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@RealSimpleAriel And why the hell didn't she buy pre IPO?

[Students For Liberty @sfliberty]

The immigrant who used to shower at the YMCA to save money is now a trillionaire after making self-driving cars, reusable rockets, and worldwide internet access a thing.

Only in America! 🇺🇸

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@ashtradin Exactly.
An inside day is just a primer. You still need a setup and a pivot.

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@Peoplewish Why use the 1 hour 10ema instead of just staying with the 30 minute chart and using the 20ema (should be the same as the hourly 10)?

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@kyletrades_

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@ashtradin What about the decay the 2x leveraged ETF has?

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@ashtradin But for TQQQ the problem is we get into a lost decade....

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@MonkeyPhone2 @CryptoKaleo When you say $STRC collapsing. You mean it goes to zero?

How can it go to zero without MSTR going bankrupt (having to fully liquidate)?

[Dept. of Devaluation @USDeptOfDebt]

@RealSimpleAriel @ShakePryzby1 Is south Korea considered an "emerging market"?