Baseline | Sports Model

134-105 Verified Record (57%)
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[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

Think we finally recovered our X account.

Crazy how strict they keep their filters on betting/gambling content and just falsely flag everything

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

4 picks live for subs!

Michigan -6.5 (FREE)

Royals vs Guardians
Phillies vs Giants
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets

7 day free trial available 👇

https://t.co/nWdg2p8vyo

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

MLB player props the model likes today 🔥

1. Chris Sale U7.5 strikeouts Model: 59.5% Fair: 42.6% Edge: +16.9% Best: FanDuel +118

2. German Marquez U3.5 strikeouts Model: 62.8% Fair: 47.1% Edge: +15.7% Best: BetMGM +100

3. Andrew Painter O4.5 strikeouts Model: 66.2% Fair: 52.3% Edge: +13.9% Best: DraftKings -122

4. Joe Ryan O6.5 strikeouts Model: 60.7% Fair: 46.9% Edge: +13.8% Best: DraftKings +103

5. Josh Naylor U0.5 hits Model: 50.2% Fair: 35.4% Edge: +14.8% Best: DraftKings +166

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

NBA player props the model likes today 🔥

- Karl-Anthony Towns O0.5 blocks (BetMGM +110)
- Wendell Carter Jr O0.5 blocks (BetMGM -120)
- Josh Hart O7.5 rebounds (BetMGM +110)
- Jrue Holiday U17.5 points (BetMGM -110)
- Jalen Johnson O21.5 points (DraftKings -104)
- Donovan Mitchell O1.5 steals (FanDuel +138)
- De'Aaron Fox O3.5 rebounds (Caesars +101)
- Franz Wagner O3.5 rebounds (Caesars +112)

Will start to publish all player props to the website including the model vs fair value and edge thresholds along with suggested parlays.

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

Free Pick for tonight:

🏀Michigan -6.5

Model edge: 6.2%

The number still gives us room, and this is the strongest free position on the board.

More official plays on Baseline:
https://t.co/Sh0MqiPq0i

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

NBA player props the model likes today 🔥

- Karl-Anthony Towns O0.5 blocks (BetMGM +110)
- Wendell Carter Jr O0.5 blocks (BetMGM -120)
- Josh Hart O7.5 rebounds (BetMGM +110)
- Jrue Holiday U17.5 points (BetMGM -110)
- Jalen Johnson O21.5 points (DraftKings -104)
- Donovan Mitchell O1.5 steals (FanDuel +138)
- De'Aaron Fox O3.5 rebounds (Caesars +101)
- Franz Wagner O3.5 rebounds (Caesars +112)

Will start to publish all player props to the website including the model vs fair value and edge thresholds along with suggested parlays.

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

April 5 Recap:

✅ Cubs ML
✅ Pacers +15.5
❌ Royals ML
❌ Raptors +10

2-2 on the day

Overall record now 134-105 ATS

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

April 4 Recap:

❌ Illinois ML
❌ Arizona +1.5

0-2 on the day, was a limited slate and was tough for the model to find a solid edge in NBA or MLB.

Overall record now 130-102

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

✅ Pacers +15.5

Easy cover for the Pacers, baseline model had a 6.8% edge over the implied probability.

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

✅ Cubs ML

Starting off the slate today 1-0

7 day free trial ⬇️

https://t.co/ZClBa3lJHX

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

🔊 Baseline Free Pick:

⚾️Cubs ML -125

The model likes the Cubs here because the price is too cheap relative to their true win probability. Baseline makes Chicago closer to 56.5% to win, while the market is pricing them around 50%, creating a 6.5% edge.

Why it leans Cubs:

- stronger overall run-prevention profile
- cleaner bullpen stability late
- better path to winning a low-to-mid scoring game
- market price is still short enough to play before it gets steamed up

Baseline projection: 56.5%
Market fair price: ~50.0%
Edge: +6.5%

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

🔊 Baseline Free Pick:

⚾️Cubs ML -125

The model likes the Cubs here because the price is too cheap relative to their true win probability. Baseline makes Chicago closer to 56.5% to win, while the market is pricing them around 50%, creating a 6.5% edge.

Why it leans Cubs:

- stronger overall run-prevention profile
- cleaner bullpen stability late
- better path to winning a low-to-mid scoring game
- market price is still short enough to play before it gets steamed up

Baseline projection: 56.5%
Market fair price: ~50.0%
Edge: +6.5%

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

Here are some NBA player props the new model likes 🔥

- Dyson Daniels O1.5 steals (FanDuel -146)
- Luke Kennard U4.5 assists (BetMGM -160)
- Kawhi Leonard O1.5 steals (FanDuel -122)
- Amen Thompson O4.5 assists (BetMGM -140)
- Wendell Carter Jr O0.5 blocks (BetMGM -130)

Will be rolling out the prop model for both NBA and MLB soon 👀

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

April 4 Recap:

❌ Illinois ML
❌ Arizona +1.5

0-2 on the day, was a limited slate and was tough for the model to find a solid edge in NBA or MLB.

Overall record now 130-102

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

April 3 Recap:

✅ 76ers -2.5
✅ Red Sox ML
❌ Blue Jays -1.5

2-1 on the day

Overall record now 132-101 (57%) ATS

All picks posted publicly and verified at https://t.co/YmUOq4qJ4n

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

Baseline Free Pick:

🏀 Illinois ML -120

UofI is the better team, model loves them tonight against Uconn and ML is still offering a solid edge.

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

We have been working on some NBA player prop models...

Will look to roll these out for both NBA and MLB

[Bulltoshi @bull_toshi]

Have been working on some NBA player prop models, was running this for a few weeks and has been solid so far...

Here's some prop/parlay plays for today:

🎯 PARLAY A (2-leg) +1622
Carlton Carrington O0.5 blk + Devin Vassell O0.5 blk
Combined prob: 30.0% | EV: +417.5%

🎯 PARLAY B (3-leg) +4033
Carlton Carrington O0.5 blk + Devin Vassell O0.5 blk + Kelly Oubre Jr O1.5 3PM
Combined prob: 21.2% | EV: +778.2%

🟡ROUND ROBIN (all 2-leg + 3-leg combos from top 5 legs)
16 tickets × $5 each = $80 total exposure

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

April 3 Recap:

✅ 76ers -2.5
✅ Red Sox ML
❌ Blue Jays -1.5

2-1 on the day

Overall record now 132-101 (57%) ATS

All picks posted publicly and verified at https://t.co/YmUOq4qJ4n

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

April 2 Recap:

✅ Thunder -9.5
❌ Clippers ML
❌ Mets ML

1-2 on the day

Overall record now 130-100 ATS

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

✅ 76ers -2.5

Another free pick cashes!

Baseline model had 76ers at a 56% chance to cover vs the market implied of 52% for a solid +4% edge.

Lately the model has been on fire with NBA specifically and is dialed in.

See all picks completely free for 7 days ⬇️

https://t.co/qLMIDzB5J3

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

Baseline Free Pick:

🏀 76ers -2.5 vs Timberwolves

Solid edge here on the spread for 76ers, should be able to cover the 2.5 easily today.

Full slate is live on the website

https://t.co/nWdg2p8vyo

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

✅ Red Sox ML

Baseline model identified a +3.5% here on the Red Sox, all signals were pointing towards an easy win.

1-0 to start the day

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

Baseline Free Pick:

🏀 76ers -2.5 vs Timberwolves

Solid edge here on the spread for 76ers, should be able to cover the 2.5 easily today.

Full slate is live on the website

https://t.co/nWdg2p8vyo

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

April 2 Recap:

✅ Thunder -9.5
❌ Clippers ML
❌ Mets ML

1-2 on the day

Overall record now 130-100 ATS

[Baseline | Sports Model @usebaselineai]

April 1 Recap:

✅ Royals ML
❌ Dodgers -1.5
❌ Magic +3.5

1-2 on the day

Overall record now 129-98