@Eric_ReignComm the subscription one bites in january. people who signed up for a black friday deal and never got the value cancel first, and the annoyed ones go straight to chargeback
@originforge0 100%. ads just make a leaky first 10 minutes leak faster. worth watching exactly where new signups stall before they get their first useful result
@uglyrobot fewer, better-fit customers is so underrated. the wrong-fit ones churn anyway and take a pile of support with them on the way out. curious what changed in how you qualify them
@capitarebrands this. a checkout discount buys a first order, not a habit. if they only came for the 15%, the first full-price renewal is where you find out
@bradimirputin the card expiring one hurts most because nobody actually decided to leave. one generic email for 2-5 failed payments a day is leaving easy money on the table
when buying again is one text away, a subscription has to keep earning its renewal.
'it's easier than reordering' stops being a reason to stay.
@jasonnmyers
I will likely never subscribe to anything again...
And I'm saying this as the co-founder of a Shopify subscription app that over 100,000 stores have installed.
After you watch this video you'll understand why.
I just bought coffee through my AI agent, over text, in two minutes. Then I told it how I wanted my refills handled. If you're a subscription brand, or you build for them, watch the video first, then my observations:
1. Subscription convenience no longer needs a subscription. I typed "order this every 30 days, but check first if I need more." The reply: "Done. And nothing ships unless you say yes."
2. Managing a subscription is about to feel archaic. Going away for a month today means visiting 17 subscriber portals to pause 17 subscriptions. With an agent it's one text: "I'm away for a month, check in 5 days before I'm home so it's all on my doorstep."
3. One text for everything. "One text with everything due, you reply yes or no, or 'yes except the coffee.'" Your email, SMS, portal and app all compress to one line in someone else's list.
4. The next coffee-of-the-month club will be one I design. "Recommend a different brand every month, then after I try it, ask me to rate it." The agent learns my taste. The brand doesn't.
5. Every public discount code is now the price. My agent finds and verifies every code before every refill. The only discount that survives is one you never publish.
6. Be the cheapest, or be the favorite. If I don't care about the brand, my prompt is: "find me the cheapest decent bag." If I do it's: "always buy this exact coffee." Everything in the middle gets squeezed out.
7. A household budget becomes a buying rule. "Keep my recurring purchases under $200 this month, show me what can wait." Now every brand competes for the same $200.
8. Brands can't see any of this. To Shopify it's a one-time order, so the win-back email fires right on top of my agent's text. Customers can cancel the subscription, keep buying through their agent, and you just see churn.
9. Subscribe & Save won't keep anyone. If the convenience is free and the discount is beatable, subscriptions need more: exclusive products, perks, free shipping, better loyalty. I think it's the biggest thing subscription brands should work on right now, and it's why we went all in on Bold Memberships.
I'm not saying subscriptions are dead. Keep optimizing your Subscribe & Save. But how people buy on a regular basis is changing.
What to do with all this:
- Count your repeat orders that aren't subscription orders
- List what subscribers get that non-subscribers can't
- Buy from your own store through an agent so you see the experience, and messaging.
- Google "[your brand] discount code." If anything beats Subscribe & Save, an agent will find it.
- Put "lasts about X weeks" on your product pages so agents (and customers) don't have to guess.
If you want to talk through what this means for your brand, comment or just DM me ๐
@SophiaChen2003 love this test. if the offer service going down means nobody can cancel, that's a trap by accident. the leave button should never depend on the stay pitch
@TTrimoreau zero churn, easy. competition means there's a market and support tickets mean people care enough to complain. churn is the one that quietly eats everything else
@lalasretention the shape beats the month two number every time. a smaller group that's still there at month twelve is worth way more than a big first repeat that falls off a cliff
@mobrk_ai an upgrade prompt landing after someone already cancelled is the worst kind of reminder. if cancel doesn't update everything right away, people leave annoyed instead of just leaving
an app with a button that destroys what you pay for, profitable for almost a decade.
easy leaving was never the threat to retention. not being worth it is.
@RevenueCat
Churn is the arch nemesis of every subscription appโฆ right?
Not for @burner ๐ฅ
@gregcohn, Co-founder & CEO, is on stage now, explaining how an app with a button that destroys the very thing youโre paying for has been growing and profitable for almost a decade.
#AppGrowthAnnual
@somakant 'date: when they should see their first win' is the one most teams skip. if nobody owns that date, the renewal call ends up being the first time anyone checks
@DailyAIDev trial transparency is the bit most apps skip. telling people exactly when they'll be charged feels scary, but it's way cheaper than refunds and angry reviews later