Mtu Mzuri

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@ianbremmer Ian

Do you think we may be at the dawn of a new world order?

Will Trump leave a permanent mark on the future of international relations?

Are we seeing a temporary, or permanent, retreat in international liberalism?

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@AllanLichtman It is a cop out to claim 50/50 with gut feelings when you are a professional election predictor.

I can do 5 minutes of research and come to the same conclusion.

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@ianbremmer could we say the reelection of trump represents a seismic shift in the world order?

Perhaps the biggest change in 3 decades of not 7?

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@ianbremmer So we need a common enemy?

Perhaps this is a natural development for one of the most multicultural multiracial countries in the world which is simultaneously safe from foreign enemies.

Perhaps this is a stage that Fukuyama didn't foresee 🤔 What's next?

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@ianbremmer I think there's a decent chance he got the speech from genAI which got the speech from West Wing.

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@ianbremmer appreciate your defense of the UN on @RealTimers.

To your point - People confuse the politics of nations and the institutions of nations. The UN is flawed. Its not fair. Its way better than nothing 🙌

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@ianbremmer What does this really mean though?

If we ran a simulation over and over of debate vs no debate I imagine Kamala wins 10-20% more often in debate simulation.

In other words most likely it won't make a difference but it is still pretty significant.

Agree?

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@ianbremmer Funny how you are accused of bias, yet in the next sentence Trumpians tout how Trump doesn't need to prep for debates.

Preparing for important things is important.

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@ianbremmer Shouldn't Ethiopia be on that map? Italy only got in there long enough to leave spaghetti.

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@ianbremmer I think we have to meet the Trumpians in their language for constructive debate.

As for Trump himself he carries more responsibility for popularizing what is arguably (convincingly) a very inappropriate word to describe American democracy :(

Sadness for political scientists.

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@ianbremmer The problem here is you are using the word "rigged" in a conventional sense informed by comparative politics.

I think a subset of Trumpians use the word "rigged" to basically mean "unduly influenced" i.e. 1-5% change in vote outcome

If so then both beliefs are possible.

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@bennyjohnson Literally? Like the real sense of the word in a dictionary? 🤔

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@roseferro @ianbremmer True. It is about the law. This however doesn't relate to the claim of whether this "law" will help Bolsonaro politically.

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@MarioNawfal @robertlendvai The longform of this is "holding ourselves accountable to deadlines at different points of time"

Do you get it now? I think the word "accountable" must have confused you.

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@CollinRugg @HANKonX Wouldn't you say that the horrifying reality of Trump getting shot in the face likely only helps him politically?

It's hard to imagine that made it worse for him.

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@CollinRugg @GuntherEagleman Trump at least has an advantage by only having to win electoral college instead of popular vote (like most countries) which is a systematic 2% bonus or so...

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@ianbremmer @JayBarlowBot Funny how hard it is to speak in descriptive language these days without someone misconstruing it to normative language.

Especially in geopolitics 🙏 thank you.

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@ianbremmer Like you I tend to explain these things as legitimate mistakes by the "nouveau politiques" class.

But it's getting strangely confidential. Do we ever suspect that a "deniable" dog whistle like this might benefit him more than it hurts him?

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@ianbremmer @ColumbiaSIPA Well deserved.

[Mtu Mzuri @ushikamano]

@ianbremmer @MarioNawfal Ian you should do your headlines but in Mario's sensationalist caps. At least we would all be better informed