UTXOMacro

Bitcoin, Macro, and AI. Facts and some opinions.

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

$BTC MVRV Z-Score: 0.37 (Aug 4).

Cycle tops historically print above 7. Cycle bottoms print below 0. At 0.37.

Given the #ColdCard debacle, we could be in a far worse spot...

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

881,000 $BTC have their cost basis at ~$64,000 per @glassnode.

#Bitcoin @UTXOMacro

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

AI startups captured 81% of global VC in Q1 2026, roughly $242B. OpenAI's $122B round alone was 40%+ of all Q1 global AI deployment. One company. One round. Forty percent. Capital concentration at this scale has no historical precedent. #AI

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

Anthropic confirmed an in-house chip team August 5. Target: 50% cut in Claude per-token inference costs via custom silicon. AWS, Google, Nvidia partnerships remain. The race to cut AI marginal cost is entering the hardware layer. #AI

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

ADP: 44,000 jobs added in July vs 75,000 forecast. A 41% miss. 322 layoff events in 2026 so far, 205,832 workers cut. Hiring caution spreading beyond tech. Weekly jobless claims Thursday are the next read. #Economy

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

IMF July 2026 update: global inflation forecast at 4.7% for the year. Disinflation has stalled. Fed speakers remain guarded on cuts, anchoring US real yields. The soft landing story was priced in too early. #Macro

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

Senate Democrats plan to deny cloture on the CLARITY Act, per Punchbowl News. No 60 votes. Recess starts Friday. Crypto market structure framework pushed to September at earliest. $BTC markets have not moved on it. #Bitcoin

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

AI agents need payment rails. USDC and USDT are already the substrate in early OpenAI and Anthropic deployments. A federal stablecoin framework under CLARITY is the infrastructure unlock for AI x crypto payments. #AI #ClarityAct #Stablecoins

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

Fed Gov. Cook: ready to raise rates if inflation stays elevated. CME FedWatch: 61.9% probability of a 25bps hike next meeting. Three months ago markets priced cuts. The pivot narrative has inverted. #Fed

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

Fed Gov. Cook: ready to raise rates if inflation stays elevated.

CME FedWatch: 61.9% probability of a 25bps hike next meeting.

Three months ago markets priced cuts. The pivot narrative has inverted. #Fed

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Over $100 billion worth of SpaceX $SPCX shares unlock tomorrow and become available to trade.

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

Fed Balance Sheet is growing — via @UTXOMacro https://t.co/Zw4mKEHZN8

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

US banks are lobbying against the CLARITY Act stablecoin yield provision. Crypto firms could offer 4-5% on $USDC. Checking accounts pay 0.5%. Banks call it an existential threat to FDIC deposit incentives. #US #HighYield #ClarityAct

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

Congress has 2 days to pass the most consequential crypto bill in U.S. history before August 7 recess. Here is what the CLARITY Act does, why the 60-vote math is broken, and what it means for your bank account if it passes.

#ClarityAct #Crypto

via @UTXOMacro https://t.co/WdCs6QXBgB

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

BlackRock, Goldman, Fidelity, and Citadel have all built institutional digital asset units ahead of CLARITY Act passage. Regulatory clarity = institutional capital unlock. Infrastructure is in place. Legislation is pending. #Markets

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

Fed balance sheet: $6.74 trillion (Jul 26). Down $2.20 trillion from the $8.94T COVID peak. QT is ongoing but decelerating. Every major QE expansion cycle has preceded a Bitcoin bull run. The $6.74T floor matters for liquidity. #Rates

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

Galaxy Research just cut CLARITY Act passage odds from 50% to 30%.

Senate needs 60 votes. Republicans hold 53, requiring at least 7 Democratic votes before the August 7 recess.

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

Citadel Securities invested $400M in https://t.co/dtQxGcj4Pa at a $20B valuation. That bet prices in CLARITY Act passage. Regulated custody and exchange infrastructure is the unlock for institutional capital at scale. #Bitcoin #ClarityAct #Crypto

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

Bitcoin Active Addresses — via @UTXOMacro https://t.co/bAx5NZa07m

[UTXOMacro @UTXOMacro]

The CLARITY Act would give the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over $BTC spot trading. Eight years of SEC enforcement ambiguity resolved in one bill.

Galaxy Research: 30% odds of passage before August 7.

2 days left before August 7 recess. #Bitcoin #StableCoins #Tokenization #RWA