Patxi

Civil-Structural Engineer - Buildings 🏢 & Nuclear ☢️ // Difference is necessary because of purpose, it doesn't imply superiority // Data informs Sustainability

[Patxi @uudubor]

Inspiration @XLNB
God: Abraham
Abraham: Here I am Lord
God: “Take your son, and Sacrifice him

Abraham :

[Bizlet @bizlet7]

Wife material.

[Tigerflow @tigerfl0w]

A billionaire went on stage and explained in 42 minutes how the entire economy works. for free. Wall Street spent the next decade pretending nobody saw it.

he didn't sell a course. he didn't plug a fund. he stood at a whiteboard and drew three lines that explain every crash, every recovery, and every rate decision since 1929.

MBA programs charge $200,000 to teach frameworks he covered in the first 15 minutes. six of the models he drew on that board are still classified as proprietary at three major banks. he gave them away on YouTube.

the part nobody talks about: he predicted exactly what happened in 2020, two years before it played out. interest rates hitting zero, the central bank running out of tools, the money printer. he drew it on a whiteboard in 2018 like he was reading tomorrow's newspaper.

a portfolio manager at a top-five firm told me every new analyst on his desk watches this before they're allowed to open a terminal. not the CFA prep. not the internal training. this one lecture.

40 million people have seen it. almost none of them can name the three forces he draws in the first ten minutes.

it is still free.

[KOPIKO @bloominglk_]

this is the best time-loop series i've ever watched.

[Cap-EO 👨🏾‍💻 @EOEboh]

I'm still yet to see a military movie better than 13 hours: the secret soldiers of Benghazi

[H.N.S★ @notanartistbro]

Marvel heroes when New York is in danger but its not their movie…

[Veles @velesxbt]

Flip a coin. Heads, your account goes up 50 percent. Tails, it goes down 40 percent. Expected value is plus 5 percent a flip, so you take the bet a hundred times. Expected value says your $10,000 becomes $1.3 million. The most likely path leaves you with $52.

An MIT professor explains the entire gap in one sentence, in a free undergraduate lecture, then moves on like it was nothing.

His name is John Tsitsiklis. He teaches undergraduate probability at MIT. He also proved in 1994 that Q-learning converges, the result that says the algorithm under modern reinforcement learning does not merely happen to work, it has to. INFORMS gave him the von Neumann Theory Prize for that line of work in 2018.

He runs the lecture on the students for an hour.

First he takes the average apart. A random variable is not a number, it is a function. A bar graph of probabilities is a PMF. Expectation is the center of gravity of that bar graph, the single point where you slide a pen underneath and the thing balances. He is slow and patient about it. By minute 35 you trust the average completely.

Then he stops and says he wants to give "one general word of caution."

"The average of a function of a random variable, in general, is not the same as the function of the average... in general, you can not reason on the average."

Everything before that sentence was the trap.

Go back to the coin. Compounding is not addition. Up 50 then down 40 is not plus 10. It is 1.5 times 0.6, which is 0.9. You are down 10 percent. Do that 50 times each way and you have 0.9 to the fiftieth power. Fifty-two dollars.

So where did the $1.3 million go? It is real. It is parked at the very top of the distribution. Run the hundred flips and only about one path in seven finishes above where you started. Only about one in a hundred ever reaches that $1.3 million. Those few runs are gigantic, and they carry the average for everybody else. You will not be in them.

In February 2018 that trade had a ticker. XIV, short volatility, $1.9 billion in it. It had paid on the average day for seven years. On February 5 the VIX rose 115.6 percent, the biggest one-day jump ever recorded. XIV went from $115.55 to $4.22 overnight. Credit Suisse shut the note two weeks later. Nobody in it was wrong about the average. They were wrong about which path they were standing on.

The usable version: your compound return is your average return minus roughly half your variance. A system averaging 20 percent a year at 40 percent vol does not compound at 20. It compounds at 12. That missing 8 is not fees or slippage.

Tsitsiklis delivers the most expensive sentence in finance, finishes the variance section, and ends with "see you on Wednesday."

The lecture is free. The average is free. Knowing which path you are standing on is the trade.

[Vadim Yuryev @VadimYuryev]

Explained this in today’s YouTube video. If you lease a $2,999 Mac, you pay $58 a month for 36 months. At the end, you owe $911 to pay it off or return it.

However, Apple gives you 6 more months to decide. Meanwhile, you continue paying monthly payments of $53.

You now have 6 months to save up $563 as the final payment to pay it off. If you fail to do so, you can return it back to Apple.

It obviously makes sense to pay it off because you can then resell the $2,999 Mac for $1,500+ on eBay or Facebook marketplace instead of losing the $2,436 you paid over those 42 months.

The beautiful thing about the deal is that you never pay more than the $2,999 MSRP because there are no lease or interest fees.

You ONLY lose if you can’t pay the monthly payments or you can’t afford to pay off the final balance. (And keep in mind this is an expensive $2,999 M5 Pro 16” MacBook Pro)

And as soon as you pay it off, you can restart a brand new lease plan if you’d like while keeping your paid off Mac.

[b3aut1ful thugg3r g1rl @1nsatiablee]

I no longer have a situationship.

[Ayo-Elesho @Ayoelesho]

There are three reasons for this.

First, the best Nigerians are given visas to the US. Exceptional students, experienced professionals, and hard-working, disciplined people. They have no problem working hard to get what they want because they are already disciplined.

Second, many Nigerians were raised in tough conditions. They grew up without stable electricity, poor internet, and basic infrastructure. Yet every day they rise above these odds to create success. It's no surprise that they achieve much more in an environment with these basic amenities.

Third, in a new environment like America, they take menial jobs citizens avoid just to get ahead. This is partly because nobody knows them to mock them for doing ‘dirty’ jobs, and this turns out to be an advantage.

[James “jchensor” Chen @jchensor]

Pretty sure it only had a 1 frame window.

[BLESSED 🥷 @Dee_9889]

Tinubu they vex say Bishop tell am truth to him face. Maybe he was expecting RCCG vibes 😂

[Chloe @ItsAllPoliticss]

Invasion of Ceuta, Spain explained:

[David Hundeyin @DavidHundeyin]

This video is not getting nearly enough attention so I'm signal boosting it.

@joyfwen did a thing here

[ijustin @justinijeh]

Wow!!!!

Just listen to what Bishop Onaiyekan said about their meeting with the president…

“We told him the country isn’t doing fine….he told us the country is doing fine …”

Man is either delusional or plain wicked.

I hope the imperative of what needs to happen in January is clear to everyone…

APC and Tinubu need to be voted out QED!!!

[DonAza @DonAzag]

Thank David Hundeyin - this helped me understand him better.

[Ken_ @cknze1]

I urge you all to actually go watch the full episode of this interview on YouTube.

Truth-preference in a woman is the master trait.

[capricorn cunt 🎀 @celesitial]

hey so this can’t be allowed to ever happen irl

[YIMBYLAND @YIMBYLAND]

> $195 MILLION **UNDER** BUDGET
> 5 YEARS **AHEAD** OF SCHEDULE

PUT THESE GUYS IN CHARGE OF LITERALLY EVERYTHING AND AMERICA WILL BE UNSTOPPABLE.