captain

A prediction market for One Piece

[captain @v3r1app]

There's a market Polymarket and Kalshi are legally incapable of listing:

"Will Blackbeard defeat Shanks?"

One man on earth controls the answer. He's busy drawing it.

So we built a real-money prediction market for fictional outcomes.

Live on @base 🧵

[captain @v3r1app]

Two ways in.

Fund a question that already exists and earn 1% of every buy in it.

Or propose your own, free, and let the crowd decide it's worth $500.

USDC on @base.

https://t.co/1CWcYQUAAF 🏴‍☠️

[captain @v3r1app]

For 25 years One Piece fans have argued about the same questions.

Reddit owns the threads. YouTube owns the videos. X owns the replies.

The fans who were right owned nothing.

Now you can own the question itself. 🧵

[captain @v3r1app]

The math, plainly.

A market that trades $10,000 pays its backers $100, split pro-rata.

Fund $50 of a $500 market and that's $10 back on something you seeded, plus your own position in it.

It compounds with every chapter that moves the price.

[captain @v3r1app]

Koby said he'd become an Admiral in chapter 2. He's still a Captain.

Four ranks to climb, and somebody has to vacate a seat for him. Garp trained him, Sakazuki once tried to kill him, and the final war is already underway.

Does he make it before the manga ends? 3 backers and $500 opens that market, and they earn 1% of every buy in it.

Fund it → https://t.co/hbGckTOOpy

#OnePiece

[captain @v3r1app]

Imu handed Sommers the sword Gram and Killingham the spear Longinus. Weapons of the First Twenty who founded the world 800 years ago.

Zoro and Sanji, both already wounded by Imu, could only stand there and watch.

Then Oda went on break until Aug 9.

Whether they both win by the end of Elbaph needs 3 backers and $500 to open. Backers earn 1% of every buy in it, permanently.

Fund it → https://t.co/imWnNkBRn3

#OnePiece #ONEPIECE1190

[captain @v3r1app]

The Imu parrot theory is either the dumbest thing you've ever read or the ending Oda's been drawing for 25 years.

There's a live market on it now. Opened at a coin flip.

Put a price on your conviction → https://t.co/638ApOVmoy

#ONEPIECE1189

[captain @v3r1app]

Exactly the two hard problems. Settlement ambiguity is the one that kills these if you get it wrong, so every market locks its source and resolution criteria before trading opens, canon events only, no interpretive calls after the fact. Narrative interpretation is the deeper one and honestly where most of the design work is.

[captain @v3r1app]

There's a market Polymarket and Kalshi are legally incapable of listing:

"Will Blackbeard defeat Shanks?"

One man on earth controls the answer. He's busy drawing it.

So we built a real-money prediction market for fictional outcomes.

Live on @base 🧵

[captain @v3r1app]

Live now. USDC on Base.

Trade the story before it ends → https://t.co/1CWcYQUAAF

And if your take deserves a market that doesn't exist yet: propose it. The crowd funds it. You earn every time it trades. 🏴‍☠️

[captain @v3r1app]

Why now: One Piece entered its final saga. Every mystery left is on a clock.

A prediction market for fandoms. One Piece first, more loading.

[captain @v3r1app]

Every prediction market has an insider problem.

Elections? Leaks. Sports? Injury reports. The Fed? Twelve people in a room.

One Piece? The only insider is Eiichiro Oda, and he's drawing the answer instead of trading it.

Fiction is the purest underlying there is.