Love jumping into new markets on Polymarket.
I was just watching a race on YouTube — the moment Forever Young crossed the line, I bought his shares.
Easy 22% profit.
Polymarket: Real Madrid vs FC Barcelona
My bet: There’s not going to be a draw.
Why?
⚽️ El Clásico stats — last 10 years (2015–2025)
Total official matches: 27
🏁 Real Madrid wins — 12 (44%)
🔵 Barcelona wins — 12 (44%)
🤝 Draws — 3 (11%)
⚽️ Last 5 years (2020–2025)
Total matches: 15
🏁 Real Madrid — 7 wins (47%)
🔵 Barcelona — 8 wins (53%)
🤝 Draws — 0 (0%)
📉 That’s only 3 draws in 27 official games over a decade — just 11% (and 0% draws in last 5 years)
Yet the market still prices a draw around 23%.
I bought Barcelona and Real shares. I hope that Barcelona will win though.
Anyway: A draw is statistically less likely than a win for either team.
Some traders have already noticed it —
@lunatik_corp wrote a great thread about a Polymarket trader nicknamed “Joe Biden” who’s buying both Real and Barça shares.
Read more here 👉 https://t.co/vbzcPJc6wt