Valentir Capital

Ex buy-side analyst sharing long-term, high conviction investing ideas grounded in rational insight.

Not financial advice.

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

Cipher Digital ($CIFR ): Q2 2026 - The Flywheel Starts to Spin https://t.co/0Aw6LOUyTL

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

$MELI - MercadoLibre's $10b Quarter - MELI just grew revenue 50% , its fastest in four years, and the stock fell 7%.https://t.co/pehVUmdO5r

My DCF (13.6% WACC, 20x exit): base case $2,323 vs ~$1,900 today.

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

Games Workshop: Paying Up for the Best Business on the London Stock Exchange https://t.co/Ghgc27pk8p

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

Portfolio Update – July 2026 https://t.co/URVmmwrZDt

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

Portfolio Update – June 2026
$IREN $CIFR
https://t.co/aILdFECoSU

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

$IREN Q3 FY2026 Earnings + Valuation Deep Dive
https://t.co/MVel5i3B6O

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

Portfolio Update – May 2026 +45% YTD
$ALAB +87.5% $IREN +56.6% $CIFR +49.2%
https://t.co/DXCMH90iSZ

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

$CIFR ripped 23% off the Q1 result. $11.4B contracted revenue. $787M avg annual NOI. 700 MW signed. Zero HPC dollars on the income statement yet.

Both campuses on schedule. Third lease signed. No equity raised.

DCF bull case: $34/share.

https://t.co/rPq5anJYj5

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

Portfolio Update – April 2026
−20% end of Q1. +39% in April. +5.67% YTD.

$IREN $CIFR $ALAB $ASST $GAW $IBIT

https://t.co/B5SLrTsVz9

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

Rate hikes work on demand. This inflation is supply-side. FED is swinging at a target the tool can't reach.
$IREN $CIFR $ASST $IBIT $ALAB $GAW
Portfolio Update: March 2026 https://t.co/bkyz4z7Vr3

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

New deep-dive out on $ASST
$2.4B AUM, 13 ETFs - and it's trading at the deepest mNAV discount in the peer group (0.64×).
Our SOTP valuation: 🐻 Bear: $6.92 (−36%) 🎯 Base: $15.59 (+44%) 🐂 Bull: $29.27 (+170%) ⚖️ Blended: $16.84 (+55%)

https://t.co/FLFXneDzZi

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

The biggest returns don’t come from steady growth but from inflection points the market hasn’t recognized yet.

Part 7 - Inflection Points: How Exponential Opportunities Emerge https://t.co/gGJ3EGzy7D

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

Built a three-statement DCF on $CIFR from scratch. Market still prices it as a Bitcoin miner. It isn't.
$9.3B contracted (Amazon + Google). BTC wound down by 2029.
Bear: $18.70 (+25%) Base: $24.79 (+65%) Bull: $35.51 (+137%)
Full walk-through: https://t.co/GplUHThoqX

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

@opsAi_nice9 Good addition. That’s the commercialization layer of the stack. If enterprise AI budgets stall relative to cloud spend it implies pilots aren’t translating into production workloads, which eventually feeds back into hyperscaler capex discipline.

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

AI Infrastructure Cycle: What breaks it

• Hyperscaler Capex <10% YoY growth for 2 cycles
• GPU pricing -25% sustained + short lead times
• High Yield spreads >600bps
• BBB spreads >250bps
• SOFR-OIS >50bps
• 10Y real yields >2.5% sustained
• BTC underperforming gold

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

The AI Infrastructure Cycle - And the Numbers That Would Actually Break It

https://t.co/DCHd6G3eqK

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

Portfolio Update - February 2026
February tested the cost of having a concentrated portfolio. Bullish long term.

Valentir Capital: −21.7%
Largest detractors: $ASST, $IREN, $ALAB.

Full breakdown:
https://t.co/OYp0cshmCB

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

Cipher Digital $CIFR: Q4 2025 - The Great Pivot

With 600MW of hyperscale leases and ~$9.3B in contracted revenue, the business is shifting toward long-duration infrastructure cash flows. BULLISH.

https://t.co/78UD7gts8F

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

Application-layer AI names repricing hard:
$TEAM −73%
$MNDY −77%
$HUBS −72%
$ADBE −43%
Meanwhile hyperscalers are guiding ~$600B+ in capex.
AI isn’t a workflow story but a power + compute story.
Own the bottlenecks.

https://t.co/MGbVUT4qBB

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

https://t.co/UrRFNm3pVp

Anthropic’s Claude just found 500+ real, high-severity bugs in live codebases - this isn’t a toy chatbot cycle, it’s AI moving into mission-critical infrastructure.

[Valentir Capital @valentir_cap]

The most exposed names in the AI shift are the ones that sit on top of the work - 1Y return:

$TEAM −72%
$MNDY −77%
$HUBS −71%
$ADBE −43%

Application-layer risk gets repriced first.

Meanwhile, the picks & shovels are what AI actually runs on. LONG $IREN 208% $CIFR 179%