Gamma exposure update for $SPY: Similar to Monday & Tuesday, we are seeing elevated positive exposure above spot and negative exposure below spot, wide range. I expect us to trade within this range, from $730-$740. Upside off a $735 bounce is the setup I am looking for; let's see if the opportunity presents itself.
Right back to where we started at that $720 MVC on $SPY. Momentum slowed on the upside as we approached $722-$723, which gave me a good opportunity to exit those calls. Analysis from earlier still stands.
📊 Powell press conference update:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted core PCE is running at 3.2% as of March, with near-term inflation expectations rising while long-term expectations remain anchored around 2%.
• Inflation outlook remains elevated in the near term, driven in part by higher energy prices and Middle East conflict risks
• Long-term inflation expectations still consistent with the Fed’s 2% target
• Economic outlook described as highly uncertain
• Policy is “not on a preset course,” emphasizing data dependence
• Powell confirmed this is his final press conference as Fed Chair and congratulated Warsh on advancement
TODAY:
President Trump is set to speak today at the Mar-a-Lago Bitcoin and Crypto Conference.
Bitcoin is HIGH on the U.S. agenda right now.
BULLISH outlook for the Clarity Act 🚀
Gamma Exposure update for $SPY: Positive gamma exposure is building overhead at $715. Not much present under spot, until about $700. I have $708 as support and $710 as resistance currently. Let's see how the data changes in the session.
Let me lay out next week.
Because it's going to be BRUTAL.
The Convergence:
🔴 Thursday April 23: Iran ceasefire expires
📊 Wednesday: Fed FOMC minutes
💰 All week: Tech earnings (MSFT, GOOGL, META)
🛢️ Daily: Oil volatility
That's a CATALYST CLUSTERFUCK.
Three scenarios:
A) Bullish (35%): Iran peace deal + Dovish Fed + Strong earnings → Bitcoin $72K to $80K+
B) Bearish (25%): War resumes + Hawkish Fed + Earnings miss → Bitcoin $72K to $65K
C) Chop Hell (40%): Mixed signals, no clear direction → Bitcoin $70-74K torture range
Notice: 75% chance we DON'T go straight up.
Weak hands will:
Panic-sell dips
FOMO-buy spikes
Get chopped to death
I'll:
Buy $68-70K if we dip
Hold $76-78K if we rip
Do nothing if we chop
The survivors: Positioned BEFORE Monday, Sized appropriately, Thesis-driven not news-driven
The casualties: Trading every headline, Over-leveraged, First rodeo syndrome
💥HUGE:
Bitcoin is now up $12,200 in last 19 days, outperforming any other asset over same period.
$250,000,000,000 has been added to it's marketcap over same time.
📊 $SPY dark pool level update:
We just added the $699.92 Dark Pool level to our $SPY charts.
Over $1.65B+ in notional value was reported at this zone today, marking it as a key area of institutional activity and liquidity concentration.