Chris Clark

Value Science Research Reports
America, Save the World

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@Seawolfcap @joeriwestland I would be very upset if it sells for $75. That's like truncating all future growth after a year or two forward and throwing away all commodity upside. Definitely afraid that shareholders don't have patience to realize the long-term potential. I agree on why it's priced cheap.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@rinnecap @PIPOTE I've posted about this before, but I don't see that as a good reason to take unnecessary risk.

https://t.co/qWHtTyC6RZ

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

$GLNG only has a few months of TTF-linked tariffs on one vessel in the near term, but the fact that Qatar LNG got cut off could motivate deals.

"The long-term impact could be structural and include... a renewed urgency for diversification of supplies."
https://t.co/mKdSjedIuh

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

On the Q4 call $GLNG management said "We do not foresee any meaningful CapEx expenditure until the commercial terms for the next project have matured."

Today they FID the 4th FLNG with no mention of commercial terms, no deal signed, and no explanation.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@gabcasla @justfactstruth @jlhaggerty1 I have a hard time imagining strategic deals that wouldn't just amount to selling for a discount to long-term value.

Nobody is going to pay anywhere near the value of the modal growth and commodity upside scenario.

Just makes me worried they don't have enough patience.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@charlesbonnerjr That was the strategy prior to Q4. They indicated a change of strategy which I thought was positive, but now seem to have reverted to the original strategy.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@charlesbonnerjr The quote in my top post.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@charlesbonnerjr Today they said "we will remain with our policy of only having one open vessel at a time", this time with no mention of mature terms. It reads as a reversal of their Q4 stance.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@charlesbonnerjr I was expecting or at least hoping for something signed before they FID the FLNG. I didn't get the impression from the call that they are that solid, it sounds like they are at the stage of negotiating with multiple parties still.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@AgBarlor I'm not really that worried either, I just really like disciplined management and it seemed like they were moving in a positive direction, but then apparently reverted back.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@AgBarlor Have you computed the equity value if they buy a vessel that never gets contracted? In my (old) calculation it dropped from ~$61 to ~$28. Not a likely scenario, but not something I want to worry about either.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@AgBarlor Yeah, I'm just pointing out that delaying growth by say 3 months is better than taking a huge risk, even if it's a low probability of failure. And if it's not going to get signed soon that just means it's even more risk.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@jlhaggerty1 Well, they are just reverting to their previous policy of at most one open vessel. We know they have justified it as "driving competitive pressure" before.

But it seems more like impatience to me. Same goes with the strategic review, which will probably be inferior to patience.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@PIPOTE Even if they have multiple potential customers lined up, there can be macro risks that cause everyone to pull away. If they can't even get a preliminary deal signed I think it's still too early given the downside risk.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@gabcasla It seems like a clear win to slow growth rate slightly for a massive reduction in risk.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

Big $GLNG news from $BKR:

"We also booked a significant award from Golar... marking the fourth Golar vessel to feature Baker Hughes' gas technology solutions."

Remember that Golar said they would avoid speculative ordering.

Nice find @gabcasla!

https://t.co/BBBEkcFWXS

[Gabriel Castro, CFA @gabcasla]

I've been adding $GLNG. All indicators point towards an imminent announcement of the 4th FLNG. Golar announced yesterday that it secured a $600 million senior-secured revolving credit facility for MK2 FLNG. Remember, Golar has already invested $1.2bn in equity, and all project funds are secured, so this additional financing is likely for other purposes. Additionally, Baker Hughes reported in 2Q26 earnings that Golar ordered four gas turbines for a new 3.5 mtpa FLNG unit.

“We also booked a significant award from Golar to provide 4 aeroderivative gas turbine-driven refrigerant compressor trains for a floating LNG facility, marking the fourth Golar vessel to feature Baker Hughes' gas technology solutions”

FID is now a matter of time, similar to Argentina’s charters. Although I have an idea of where it can be located, I'm still uncertain whether they will FID the vessel without a contract or execute the contract simultaneously. They've been very cautious managing the balance sheet, so if they proceed with the spec order, I expect a contract will follow within the next 3 to 6 months. They indicate that charter agreements will be quite similar, so we could see an increase in NAV by $10/15 soon.

Besides that, Kosmos confirmed that the Gimi FLNG has been exceeding expectations, generating additional profits and reaffirming Golar's reputation as the most reliable FLNG supplier. Meanwhile, the Hilli contract expired, and cargo operations concluded in July 2026. Karl Fredrik Staubo told TradeWinds that the unit left Cameroon waters for Singapore for upgrades before beginning a new 20-year charter in Argentina, starting mid-2027.

I believe this is a highly attractive investment. The core operations are performing strongly, providing a solid upside potential until 2028, when all vessels will be operational and Golar is expected to pay a $6 dividend, justifying a $65/$70 valuation. Apart from the quarterly $0.25 dividend until then, several catalysts are expected to boost the IRR notably. These include the likely addition of a fourth unit, a potential fifth unit possibly this year, and the Goldman Sachs outcome, which should also occur within this year.

Considering the current weakness caused by a lack of news and comments about the war ending, I feel confident in increasing my position.

I suggest checking out my friend @AyusoValue writing:
https://t.co/LMDe4muKAq

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@gabcasla Do you mean moving forward without a signed deal?

I'd prefer they don't commit too much capital prior to a definitive agreement at least. I really like the lower risk strategy of just a bit of long-lead items prior to a deal and FID the FLNG upon definitive agreement or FID.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@gabcasla "Floating LNG player Golar LNG said on Wednesday that it would refrain from committing significant capital expenditure on its fourth FLNG until commercial terms for the next project are matured."
https://t.co/gzfWkGxfrC

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

@gabcasla There's a chance they could say that these are just long-lead items and not ordering a full vessel, but combined with the fact that they guided for a fourth FLNG in 2026, this is a good indication that the deal is on track.

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

I got called out of $CVS after holding more than 2 years. Up 93% since this post, plus dividends.

It took longer than I initially expected and my performance was worse due to some bad timing, but it worked as expected.

https://t.co/zSQd1MbOmf

[Chris Clark @valuesci]

Brutal guidance revision by $CVS, but it's now trading at an adjusted P/E of 8 on what is supposed to be a trough year with low double-digit EPS growth expected in 2025 and previous long-term EPS growth guidance of 6%. Note that front store retail is a relatively minor factor.